Development of quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions to boundary shifts in farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China

doi:10.1007/s11442-017-1421-5

Abstract

Abstract:

The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone (FPE); however, the quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions remain relatively limited. Based on long-term data of meteorological stations and interpretations of land use since 1970, climate and land use boundaries of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were delineated. To detect climate contributions to the FPE boundary shifts, we developed two quantitative methods to explore the spatial-temporal pattern of climate and land use boundary at the east-west (or south-north) (FishNet method) and transect directions (Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS method). The results indicated that significant differences were exhibited in climate boundaries, land use boundaries, as well as climate contributions in different regions during different periods. The northwest FPE had smaller variations, while the northeast FPE had greater shifts. In the northwest part of the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains and the Inner Mongolian Plateau, the shifts of climate boundaries were significantly related to the land use boundaries. The climate contributions at an east-west direction ranged from 10.7% to 44.4%, and those at a south-north direction varied from 4.7% to 55.9%. The majority of the results from the DSAS were consistent with those from the FishNet. The DSAS method is more accurate and suitable for precise detection at a small scale, whereas the FishNet method is simple to conduct statistical analysis rapidly and directly at a large scale. Our research will be helpful to adapt to climate change, to develop the productive potential, as well as to protect the environment of the FPE in northern China.

Key words: farming-pastoral ecotone (FPE) in northern China, climate change, land use, contribution, quantitative detection

Wenjiao SHI, Yiting LIU, Xiaoli SHI. Development of quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions to boundary shifts in farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(9): 1059-1071.

Figures/Tables 5

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Regions	Ecological function regions	Primary ecological functions
Northwest part of region 1 (NW-1)	The restricted cultivation and water conservation region in the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains	Agricultural-pastoral production, forestry-fruit production, and ecological tourism
Southeast part of region 1 (SE-1)
Northwest part of region 2 (NW-2)	The agricultural-forestry-pastoral and ecological production region in the southeast fringe of the Inner Mongolian Plateau	Agricultural-pastoral production, and desertification mitigation
Southeast part of region 2 (SE-2)
Northwest part of region 3 (NW-3)	The farming-pastoral and soil-water conservation region in northern Loess Plateau	Soil-water conservation, and agricultural-forestry production
Southeast part of region 3 (SE-3)
Northwest part of region 4 (NW-4)	The arid desert-oasis cultivation region in the Hexi Corridor	Desertification mitigation, and agricultural production
Southeast part of region 4 (SE-4)		Desertification mitigation, and agricultural production

Regions	Periods	X direction		Y direction		Transect direction
Regions	Periods	Sample numbers	r²	Sample numbers	r²	Sample numbers	r²
NW-1	1970s-1980s	261	0.444	—	—	580	0.027
	1980s-1990s	255	0.107	—	—	—	—
	1990s-2000s	411	0.202	331	0.047	580	0.011
NW-2	1970s-1980s	473	0.209	655	0.088	755	0.168
	1980s-1990s	—	—	726	0.559	—	—
	1990s-2000s	—	—	697	0.104	755	0.043
NW-3	1970s-1980s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1980s-1990s	—	—	457	0.082	612	0.043
	1990s-2000s	—	—	—	—	—	—
NW-4	1970s-1980s	—	—	77	0.052	73	0.153
	1980s-1990s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1990s-2000s	—	—	—	—	—	—
SE-1	1970s-1980s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1980s-1990s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1990s-2000s	—	—	—	—	891	0.015
SE-2	1970s-1980s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1980s-1990s	567	0.040	—	—	985	0.032
	1990s-2000s	—	—	—	—	—	—
SE-3	1970s-1980s	357	0.201	568	0.227	932	0.099
	1980s-1990s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1990s-2000s	—	—	—	—	932	0.019
SE-4	1970s-1980s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1980s-1990s	—	—	—	—	—	—
	1990s-2000s	—	—	—	—	—	—