Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1350-8

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0℃ for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a, -0.27 p/10a, and -0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.

Key words: Chinese oases, pentad average temperature, influencing factor, regional warming

Zhonghua CHAI, Puxing LIU. Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(12): 1647-1660.

Figures/Tables 10

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Decade	Start pentad (p)	End pentad (p)	Pentads (p)
1960-1969	-0.71	0.34	1.17
1970-1979	-0.25	0.54	0.67
1980-1989	-0.26	0.34	0.49
1990-1999	0.21	-0.14	-0.34
2000-2009	0.61	-0.9	-1.47
2010-2014	0.76	-0.39	-1.39

		M-K	Sliding t test	Cumulative anomaly method
The start pentad	Entire region	1990/1991	-	1990
	Beijiang	1990/1991	-	1991
	Nanjiang	1988	1987/1993	1993
	Hexi	1976/1981/1992	-	1992
	Hetao	1970/1987/1993	1967/1969/1971	1993
	Qaidam	-	1993/1994	1993
	Alxa	1983/1984/1987	1971/1992	1992
The end pentad	Entire region	1998	-	1998
	Beijiang	2007/2009/2012	1964/1971/1982	2007
	Nanjiang	1997	1984/1997/2010	1995
	Hexi	1992/1994/1995	1995	1985
	Hetao	1992/1995	1981/1984/1990/1997	1995
	Qaidam	1994	1979/1994	1994
	Alxa	2007/2010/2012	1969/1989/2007	1990
Pentads	Entire region	1994	1971	1994
	Beijiang	1999	1970/2006/2007	1999
	Nanjiang	1997	1967/1971/1991	1997
	Hexi	1995	1971/1972/1995/2007	1995
	Hetao	1995/2005/2007/2010	2007	1993
	Qaidam	-	1993/1996	1993
	Alxa	1999	1969/1987/1989/1999	1986

		TPI	APVAI	APVII	WCI	SHI	SASM	CDE
The start pentad	Beijiang	0.26^*	-0.454^**	-0.307^*	0.213	-0.361^**	-0.001	0.467^**
	Nanjiang	0.287^*	-0.454^**	-0.41^**	0.175	-0.249	-0.123	0.389^**
	Hexi	0.387^**	-0.371^**	-0.21	0.207	-0.327^*	-0.118	0.422^**
	Hetao	0.355^**	-0.288^*	-0.13	0.178	-0.077	-0.063	0.23
	Qaidam	0.339^**	-0.218	-0.055	0.122	-0.439^**	-0.345^**	0.627^**
	Alxa	0.392^**	-0.578^**	-0.431^**	0.186	-0.239	-0.01	0.374^**
The end pentad	Beijiang	-0.23	0.322^*	0.247	-0.414^**	-0.045	-0.145	-0.313^*
	Nanjiang	-0.525^**	0.219	0.26^*	-0.385^**	-0.1	0.083	-0.389^**
	Hexi	-0.248	0.382^**	0.134	-0.235	-0.173	-0.138	-0.259^*
	Hetao	-0.298^*	0.302^*	0.114	-0.239	-0.105	0.095	-0.235
	Qaidam	-0.324^*	0.308^*	0.118	0.05	-0.164	0.297^*	-0.451^**
	Alxa	-0.241	0.336^**	0.436^**	-0.306^*	-0.277^*	-0.138	-0.27^*
Pentads	Beijiang	-0.219	0.617^**	0.448^**	-0.021	0.141	0.001	-0.451^**
	Nanjiang	-0.406^**	0.431^**	0.342^**	-0.229	0.145	0.045	-0.522^**
	Hexi	-0.358^**	0.609^**	0.424^**	-0.153	0.21	0.179	-0.402^**
	Hetao	-0.305^*	0.533^**	0.37^**	-0.175	0.118	0.055	-0.239
	Qaidam	-0.376^**	0.428^**	0.212	-0.239	0.1	0.26^*	-0.567^**
	Alxa	-0.371^**	0.523^**	0.335^*	-0.088	0.045	0.045	-0.351^**

	Start pentad (p)	End pentad (p)	Pentads (p)
Before abrupt change	62.7	14.6	24.8
After abrupt change	63.6	13.8	23
Influence	Postponed	Advanced	Shortened

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