Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of geopolitical relations among Arctic countries based on news big data

doi:10.1007/s11442-022-2035-0

Abstract

Abstract:

Global warming has caused the Arctic Ocean ice cover to shrink. This endangers the environment but has made traversing the Arctic channel possible. Therefore, the strategic position of the Arctic has been significantly improved. As a near-Arctic country, China has formulated relevant policies that will be directly impacted by changes in the international relations between the eight Arctic countries (regions). A comprehensive and real-time analysis of the various characteristics of the Arctic geographical relationship is required in China, which helps formulate political, economic, and diplomatic countermeasures. Massive global real-time open databases provide news data from major media in various countries. This makes it possible to monitor geographical relationships in real-time. This paper explores key elements of the social development of eight Arctic countries (regions) over 2013-2019 based on the GDELT database and the method of labeled latent Dirichlet allocation. This paper also constructs the national interaction network and identifies the evolution pattern for the relationships between Arctic countries (regions). The following conclusions are drawn. (1) Arctic news hotspot is now focusing on climate change/ice cap melting which is becoming the main driving factor for changes in geographical relationships in the Arctic. (2) There is a strong correlation between the number of news pieces about ice cap melting and the sea ice area. (3) With the melting of the ice caps, the social, economic, and military activities in the Arctic have been booming, and the competition for dominance is becoming increasingly fierce. In general, there is a pattern of domination by Russia and Canada.

Key words: Arctic, geographical relationship, spatiotemporal data mining, topic model, interactive network, big data

LI Meng, YUAN Wen, YUAN Wu, NIU Fangqu, LI Hanqin, HU Duanmu. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of geopolitical relations among Arctic countries based on news big data[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(10): 2036-2052.

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Event type
Make public statement	Appeal	Express intent to cooperate	Consult	Engage in diplomatic cooperation
Demand	Provide aid	Yield	Investigate	Engage in material cooperation
Disapprove	Reject	Threaten	Protest	Exhibit military posture
Reduce relations	Coerce	Assault	Fight	Engage in unconventional mass violence

Year	Animal protection	Shipping traffic	Climate change	Economic Activities	Military activities	Regional governance	Resource development	Melting ice caps
2013	324	398	766	625	1803	712	773	499
2014	671	575	977	1336	5422	1120	953	580
2015	956	2381	1625	1045	3616	1342	1434	1199
2016	1447	3915	1377	1195	3923	1476	1028	1716
2017	1029	1603	1326	832	4080	1460	943	1109
2018	1280	1193	2147	933	3244	1270	930	1338
2019	1589	1537	3591	991	4605	3162	1220	1940

Events	Top 1	Top 2	Top 3	Top 4	Top 5	Top 6	Top 7	Top 8
Melting ice caps	ice	climate	glacier	sheet	cap	record	researcher	melting
Animal protection	bear	polar	wildlife	climate	animal	ice	conservation	study
Shipping traffic	ship	cruise	ice	polar	route	coast	expedition	Norwegian
Regional governance	policy	development	region	oil	country	paper	cooperation	state
Climate change	climate	temperature	cold	weather	record	degree	polar	wind
Resource development	energy	oil	fuel	drilling	fossil	gas	company	climate
Economic activities	oil	market	price	natural	industry	company	car	gas
Military activities	military	defense	force	state	missile	Nordic	war	logistics

	Animal protection	Shipping traffic	Climate change	Economic Activities	Military activities	Regional governance	Resource development	Melting ice caps
Animal protection	1.0000	0.6217	0.7749	0.3240	0.3986	0.7586	0.4437	0.9701
Shipping traffic	0.6217	1.0000	0.1113	0.3716	0.1289	0.2053	0.4591	0.6684
Climate change	0.7749	0.1113	1.0000	0.0423	0.2843	0.9241	0.4914	0.7970
Economic activities	0.3240	0.3716	0.0423	1.0000	0.8159	0.1507	0.3534	0.2063
Military activities	0.3986	0.1289	0.2843	0.8159	1.0000	0.4624	0.3336	0.2617
Regional governance	0.7586	0.2053	0.9241	0.1507	0.4624	1.0000	0.5001	0.7947
Resource development	0.4437	0.4591	0.4914	0.3534	0.3336	0.5001	1.0000	0.5138
Melting ice caps	0.9701	0.6684	0.7970	0.2063	0.2617	0.7947	0.5138	1.0000

Interaction	Very negative	Nega- tive	Neu- tral	Posi- tive	Interaction	Very negative	Nega- tive	Neu- tral	Posi- tive	Very positive
Canada-Russia	1	125	2351	21	Finland-Sweden	0	10	893	10	0
Norway-Russia	0	54	2107	20	Canada-Sweden	0	18	857	1	0
Denmark-Greenland	0	10	1848	7	Greenland-Norway	0	4	818	19	1
Canada-Greenland	1	27	1568	18	Iceland-Russia	0	5	815	12	0
Greenland-Russia	0	41	1485	11	Denmark-Sweden	0	10	754	12	0
Denmark-Russia	0	9	1435	8	Greenland-Iceland	1	25	686	20	0
Canada-Norway	0	12	1394	17	Canada-Finland	0	45	647	8	2
Finland-Russia	0	72	1301	4	Canada-Iceland	1	8	632	16	0
Norway-Sweden	0	18	1136	14	Denmark-Finland	0	4	637	8	1
Russia-Sweden	0	29	1046	3	Denmark-Iceland	0	3	624	12	0
Denmark-Norway	0	7	957	19	Finland-Iceland	0	3	523	14	0
Canada-Denmark	0	5	953	10	Iceland-Sweden	0	7	487	8	0
Iceland-Norway	0	7	916	28	Greenland-Sweden	2	15	412	0	0
Finland-Norway	1	23	903	16	Finland-Greenland	0	8	380	1	0