Temperature trends in some major countries from the 1980s to 2019

doi:10.1007/s11442-022-1937-1

Abstract

Abstract:

The study of temperature change in major countries of the world since the 1980s is a key scientific issue given that such data give insights into the spatial differences of global temperature change and can assist in combating climate change. Based on the reanalysis of seven widely accepted datasets, which include trends in climate change and spatial interpolation of the land air temperature data, the changes in the temperature of major countries from 1981 to 2019 and the spatial-temporal characteristics of global temperature change have been assessed. The results revealed that the global land air temperature from the 1980s to 2019 varied at a rate of 0.320°C/10a, and exhibited a significantly increasing trend, with a cumulative increase of 0.835°C. The mean annual land air temperature in the northern and southern hemispheres varied at rates of 0.362°C/10a and 0.147°C/10a, respectively, displaying significantly increasing trends with cumulative increases of 0.828°C and 0.874°C, respectively. Across the globe, the rates of change of the mean annual temperature were higher at high latitudes than at middle and low latitudes, with the highest rates of change occurring in regions at latitudes of 80°-90°N, followed by regions from 70°-80°N, then from 60°-70°N. The global land surface air temperature displayed an increasing trend, with more than 80% of the land surface showing a significant increase. Greenland, Ukraine, and Russia had the highest rates of increase in the mean annual temperature; in particular, Greenland experienced a rate of 0.654°C/10a. The regions with the lowest rates of increase of mean annual temperature were mainly in New Zealand and the equatorial regions of South America, Southeast Asia, and Southern Africa, where the rates were <0.15°C/10a. Overall, 136 countries (93%), out of the 146 countries surveyed, exhibited a significant warming, while 10 countries (6.849%) exhibited no significant change in temperature, of which 3 exhibited a downward trend. Since the 1980s, there have been 4, 34 and 68 countries with levels of global warming above 2.0°C, 1.5°C and 1.0°C, respectively, accounting statistically for 2.740%, 23.288% and 46.575% of the countries examined. This paper takes the view that there was no global warming hiatus over the period 1998-2019.

Key words: global temperature changes, local space, major countries, 1980s to 2019

SHEN Beibei, SONG Shuaifeng, ZHANG Lijuan, WANG Ziqing, REN Chong, LI Yongsheng. Temperature trends in some major countries from the 1980s to 2019[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(1): 79-100.

Figures/Tables 13

Table 1

Figure 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Table 3

Figure 3

Table 4

Figure 4

Table 5

Rates of temperature changes for major countries and regions (℃/10a)

Country/Region	CRU	GHCN	NCEP/NCAR	NCEP/DOE	ERA5	JRA55	CFSR	MEAN
Greenland	0.526**	0.894**	0.71**	0.743**	0.542**	0.711**	0.455**	0.654**
Ukraine	0.528**	0.586**	0.55**	0.458**	0.564**	0.624**	0.424**	0.533**
Russia	0.557**	0.542**	0.489**	0.551**	0.578**	0.563**	0.385**	0.523**
Romania	0.571**	0.574**	0.536**	0.377**	0.509**	0.583**	0.471**	0.517**
Slovakia	0.466**	0.622**	0.457**	0.405**	0.51**	0.535**	0.582**	0.511**
Hungary	0.523**	0.449**	0.509**	0.462**	0.491**	0.564**	0.528**	0.504**
Finland	0.485**	0.553**	0.485**	0.555**	0.507**	0.508**	0.431**	0.503**
Serbia	0.551**	0.529**	0.525**	0.527**	0.443**	0.496**	0.442**	0.502**
Armenia	0.426**	0.642**	0.699**	0.593**	0.44**	0.459**	0.056	0.474**
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.523**	0.495**	0.443**	0.369**	0.436**	0.59**	0.452**	0.473**
Norway	0.537**	0.535**	0.427**	0.3**	0.579**	0.648**	0.272**	0.471**
Bulgaria	0.533**	0.659**	0.382**	0.16	0.454**	0.518**	0.508**	0.459**
Azerbaijan	0.438**	0.608**	0.477**	0.43**	0.438**	0.439**	0.358**	0.455**
Kyrgyzstan	0.388**	0.632**	0.701**	0.797**	0.291**	0.26**	0.109	0.454**
Syria	0.468**	0.537**	0.383**	0.338**	0.5**	0.6**	0.342**	0.453**
Turkey	0.466**	0.524**	0.388**	0.473**	0.487**	0.532**	0.25**	0.446**
Belarus	0.458**	0.527**	0.411**	0.419**	0.445**	0.514**	0.33**	0.444**
Jordan	0.505**	0.665**	0.236**	0.255**	0.448**	0.575**	0.411**	0.442**
Saudi Arabia	0.406**	0.633**	0.304**	0.35**	0.443**	0.591**	0.362**	0.441**
Iran	0.482**	0.435**	0.346**	0.37**	0.441**	0.644**	0.361**	0.44**
Poland	0.447**	0.496**	0.36**	0.39**	0.444**	0.474**	0.436**	0.435**
Iraq	0.496**	0.408**	0.391**	0.373**	0.491**	0.617**	0.262**	0.434**
Czech Republic	0.471**	0.458**	0.29*	0.343*	0.454**	0.502**	0.516**	0.433**
United Arab Emirates	0.41**	0.601**	0.29**	0.288**	0.4**	0.527**	0.422**	0.42**
Iceland	0.462**	0.517**	0.348**	0.364**	0.477**	0.395**	0.297**	0.408**
Eritrea	0.348**	0.995**	0.281**	0.373**	0.303**	0.326**	0.215**	0.406**
Egypt	0.45**	0.529**	0.26**	0.378**	0.445**	0.411**	0.341**	0.402**
Germany	0.42**	0.38**	0.297**	0.344**	0.417**	0.462**	0.492**	0.402**
Sweden	0.415**	0.451**	0.436**	0.353**	0.428**	0.422**	0.299*	0.401**
Canada	0.286**	0.452**	0.421**	0.436**	0.374**	0.435**	0.346**	0.393**
Estonia	0.427**	0.378**	0.323*	0.427**	0.397**	0.385**	0.391**	0.39**
Austria	0.457**	0.476**	0.189	0.062	0.462**	0.512**	0.554**	0.387**
Netherlands	0.411**	0.377**	0.376**	0.393**	0.377**	0.398**	0.377**	0.387**
Country/Region	CRU	GHCN	NCEP/NCAR	NCEP/DOE	ERA5	JRA55	CFSR	MEAN
Niger	0.243**	0.323**	0.343**	0.646**	0.385**	0.355**	0.405**	0.386**
Libya	0.26**	0.404**	0.321**	0.498**	0.41**	0.469**	0.309**	0.381**
Lithuania	0.419**	0.435**	0.263*	0.307*	0.393**	0.425**	0.318*	0.366**
Georgia	0.429**	0.495**	0.3**	0.254*	0.489**	0.511**	0.08	0.365**
Croatia	0.519**	0.344**	0.187*	0.03	0.436**	0.584**	0.453**	0.365**
Latvia	0.414**	0.403**	0.293*	0.325*	0.378**	0.403**	0.321*	0.363**
Denmark	0.414**	0.416**	0.304**	0.261*	0.373**	0.371**	0.386**	0.361**
Belgium	0.427**	0.325**	0.306**	0.351**	0.369**	0.407**	0.304**	0.356**
Mongolia	0.435**	0.436**	0.226*	0.265*	0.391**	0.422**	0.133	0.33**
Sudan	0.31**	0.384**	0.285**	0.372**	0.435**	0.335**	0.18**	0.329**
Afghanistan	0.354**	0.39**	0.181*	0.333**	0.395**	0.407**	0.24**	0.329**
Djibouti	0.305**	0.793**	0.234**	0.103	0.22**	0.301**	0.334**	0.327**
Greece	0.422**	0.374**	0.346**	0.217**	0.365**	0.273**	0.287**	0.326**
Montenegro	0.517**	0.363**	0.141	-0.102	0.434**	0.509**	0.396**	0.323**
Algeria	0.207**	0.349**	0.307**	0.478**	0.326**	0.288**	0.297**	0.322**
Bhutan	0.232**	0.693**	0.468*	0.412**	0.184**	0.132*	0.116	0.32**
Kosovo	0.511**	0.276**	0.201*	0.01	0.465**	0.394**	0.36**	0.317**
United States of America	0.33**	0.359**	0.306**	0.305**	0.326**	0.358**	0.228**	0.316**
Chad	0.24**	0.309**	0.222**	0.29**	0.395**	0.472**	0.235**	0.309**
Ethiopia	0.265**	0.586**	0.258**	0.26**	0.281**	0.249**	0.17*	0.296**
China	0.255**	0.394**	0.266**	0.236**	0.303**	0.315**	0.28**	0.293**
Nepal	0.295**	0.42**	0.587**	0.639**	0.18**	-0.174	0.102	0.293**
Yemen	0.199**	0.676**	0.19**	0.113*	0.261**	0.279**	0.298**	0.288**
Switzerland	0.4**	0.501**	-0.083	-0.081	0.354**	0.408**	0.443**	0.278**
Turkmenistan	0.352**	0.406**	0.042	0.084	0.4**	0.401**	0.249*	0.276**
Kenya	0.21**	0.229**	0.379**	0.447**	0.223**	0.244**	0.195**	0.275**
Mali	0.15**	0.267**	0.302**	0.402**	0.301**	0.192**	0.312**	0.275**
Mauritania	0.182**	0.34**	0.272**	0.381**	0.268**	0.153*	0.287**	0.269**
Italy	0.369**	0.392**	0.172**	0.04	0.327**	0.262**	0.286**	0.264**
South Korea	0.303**	0.511**	0.192**	0.17*	0.297**	0.216**	0.158**	0.264**
Uzbekistan	0.349**	0.368**	-0.02	0.039	0.437**	0.358**	0.306**	0.263**
Pakistan	0.319**	0.259**	0.34**	0.361**	0.204**	0.23**	0.121	0.262**
Mexico	0.278**	0.325**	0.213**	0.193**	0.282**	0.391**	0.152**	0.262**
DPRK	0.257**	0.41**	0.217**	0.206*	0.299**	0.297**	0.148	0.262**
France	0.327**	0.316**	0.259**	0.184**	0.276**	0.284**	0.183**	0.261**
Albania	0.447**	0.325**	0.182*	-0.111	0.375**	0.373**	0.179**	0.253**
Somaliland	0.178**	0.557**	0.175**	0.206**	0.226**	0.131**	0.277**	0.25**
Tajikistan	0.309**	0.444**	0.181	0.173	0.332**	0.205	0.101	0.249**
Oman	0.326**	0.221**	0.173**	0.144**	0.206**	0.358**	0.281**	0.244**
Japan	0.329**	0.39**	0.04	0.056	0.324**	0.349**	0.215**	0.243**
Country/Region	CRU	GHCN	NCEP/NCAR	NCEP/DOE	ERA5	JRA55	CFSR	MEAN
Tunisia	0.298**	0.363**	0.175**	0.165**	0.282**	0.29**	0.059	0.233**
Western Sahara	0.234**	0.246**	0.233**	0.337**	0.238**	0.125	0.213**	0.232**
Myanmar	0.169**	0.302**	0.366**	0.259**	0.133**	0.222**	0.172**	0.232**
Kazakhstan	0.301**	0.295**	0.099	0.101	0.348**	0.291**	0.178	0.23*
Cote d'Ivoire	0.171**	0.392**	0.199**	0.073*	0.195**	0.27**	0.312**	0.23**
Central African Republic	0.205**	0.312**	0.27**	0.099	0.357**	0.332**	0.001	0.225**
Uganda	0.204**	0.489**	0.361**	0.322**	0.268**	0.122**	-0.245	0.217**
Laos	0.199**	0.271**	0.193**	0.162**	0.153**	0.328**	0.195**	0.214**
Cameroon	0.173**	0.522**	0.132**	0.024	0.244**	0.215**	0.171**	0.211**
Tanzania	0.167**	0.25**	0.316**	0.317**	0.215**	0.146**	0.064	0.211**
India	0.225**	0.409**	0.185**	0.206**	0.104**	0.176**	0.145**	0.207**
Guinea	0.202**	0.48**	0.193**	0.132**	0.143**	0.135**	0.163	0.207**
Gabon	0.166**	0.363**	0.119**	0.182**	0.204**	0.287**	0.096*	0.203**
United Kingdom	0.262**	0.157*	0.21**	0.13	0.224**	0.209**	0.204**	0.199**
Cambodia	0.199**	0.233**	0.184**	0.12**	0.157**	0.303**	0.193**	0.199**
Thailand	0.197**	0.354**	0.193**	0.138**	0.111*	0.17**	0.218**	0.197**
Somalia	0.116**	0.404**	0.295**	0.167**	0.171**	-0.003	0.224**	0.196**
Spain	0.265**	0.429**	0.091	0.03	0.239**	0.252**	0.045	0.193**
South Sudan	0.188**	0.299**	0.25**	0.236**	0.464**	0.266**	-0.356	0.192**
Madagascar	0.237**	0.011	0.192**	0.208**	0.199**	0.245**	0.252**	0.192**
Namibia	0.179**	0.374**	0.035	0.016	0.207**	0.396**	0.129*	0.191**
Burundi	0.14**	0.342**	0.332**	0.293**	0.19**	0.056	-0.026	0.19**
Brazil	0.262**	0.327**	0.154**	0.131**	0.216**	0.189**	0.03	0.187**
Morocco	0.26**	0.278**	0.151*	0.15*	0.215**	0.168**	0.084	0.187**
Burkina Faso	0.179**	0.303**	0.092*	0.05	0.215**	0.214**	0.233**	0.184**
Senegal	0.227**	0.353**	0.209**	0.186**	0.14**	0.131**	0.031	0.182**
Malawi	0.173**	0.269**	0.215**	0.213**	0.14**	0.152**	0.108	0.181**
Republic of the Congo	0.124**	0.309**	0.183**	0.15**	0.264**	0.212**	0.025	0.181**
Guatemala	0.221**	0.298**	0.11*	0.076	0.219**	0.313**	0.026	0.18**
Nigeria	0.186**	0.426**	0.11**	-0.044	0.194**	0.168**	0.216**	0.18**
Vietnam	0.161**	0.143**	0.174**	0.175**	0.139**	0.299**	0.157**	0.178**
Ghana	0.165**	0.334**	0.079*	-0.037	0.204**	0.265**	0.222**	0.176**
Liberia	0.154**	0.401**	0.201**	0.097**	0.114**	0.042	0.209**	0.174**
Guinea-Bissau	0.234**	0.428**	0.196**	0.135*	0.107**	0.033	0.083	0.174**
Mozambique	0.23**	0.301**	0.169**	0.224**	0.158**	0.117**	0.015	0.174**
Australia	0.162**	0.179**	0.15**	0.229**	0.203**	0.1*	0.192**	0.174**
Venezuela	0.221**	0.231**	0.19**	0.135*	0.176**	0.212**	0.038	0.172**
Benin	0.176**	0.343**	0.079*	-0.077	0.211**	0.236**	0.229**	0.171**
South Africa	0.264**	0.254**	0.116*	0.106	0.217**	0.135*	0.09	0.169**
Country/Region	CRU	GHCN	NCEP/NCAR	NCEP/DOE	ERA5	JRA55	CFSR	MEAN
Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.075*	0.336**	0.266**	0.22**	0.275**	0.129**	-0.13	0.167**
Sierra Leone	0.176**	0.456**	0.185**	0.098**	0.106**	-0.073	0.218**	0.167**
Ecuador	0.053	0.685**	0.06	0.036	0.098*	-0.029	0.234**	0.162**
Dominica	0.107**	0.223**	0.198**	0.143**	0.186**	0.071	0.175**	0.158**
Zambia	0.113*	0.261**	0.208**	0.156*	0.136*	0.162**	0.032	0.153**
Angola	0.042	0.458**	0.186**	0.178**	0.177**	0.087	-0.078	0.15**
Peru	0.066	0.327**	0.047	0.004	0.18**	0.158**	0.242**	0.146**
Malaysia	0.168**	0.265**	0.067**	0.026	0.1**	0.192**	0.206**	0.146**
Ireland	0.148*	0.206**	0.141**	0.138*	0.13*	0.149*	0.106	0.145*
Guyana	0.192**	0.306**	0.048	0.19**	0.097*	0.215**	-0.043	0.144**
Suriname	0.175**	0.238**	0.099	0.212**	0.074	0.104*	0.093	0.142**
Botswana	0.219**	0.234**	0.125	0.121	0.115	0.078	0.101	0.142
Portugal	0.219**	0.339**	0.046	0.022	0.173**	0.159**	0.027	0.141*
Zimbabwe	0.229**	0.142*	0.125*	0.211	0.105	0.148*	-0.036	0.132*
Cuba	0.19**	0.097*	0.182**	0.162**	0.196**	-0.038	0.119*	0.13**
Colombia	0.173**	0.099*	0.175**	0.14**	0.178**	0.144**	-0.002	0.129**
Sri Lanka	0.178**	0.239**	0.148**	0.102	0.042	0.042	0.117*	0.124**
Indonesia	0.12**	0.216**	0.094**	0.042	0.112**	0.112**	0.153**	0.121**
Bangladesh	0.096	0.297**	0.089*	0.156**	0.1*	0.113**	-0.005	0.121**
Costa Rica	0.095*	0.133*	0.164**	0.074	0.112*	0.132*	0.095*	0.115**
Belize	0.221**	-0.002	0.123**	0.061	0.197**	0.187**	0.009	0.114**
Philippines	0.13**	0.211**	0.062*	0.011	0.114**	0.105**	0.102**	0.105**
Panama	0.121**	0.127*	0.162**	0.027	0.143**	0.02	0.126**	0.104*
Lesotho	0.248**	0.067	0.067	-0.144	0.29**	0.19**	-0.047	0.096
Papua New Guinea	-0.033	0.344**	0.107**	0.018	0.063*	0.044	0.089*	0.09**
Nicaragua	0.124**	-0.056	0.15**	0.115	0.112**	0.13*	-0.007	0.081*
New Zealand	0.134*	0.257**	0.043	-0.296	0.176**	0.084	0.087	0.069
Honduras	0.161**	-0.042	0.1*	0.019	0.12**	0.093*	-0.065	0.055
Bolivia	-0.022	0.313**	-0.178	-0.24	0.247**	0.235**	-0.026	0.047
Uruguay	0.129*	0.137*	-0.037	-0.072	0.119*	0.122*	-0.09	0.044
East Timor	0.006	0.042	0.126**	0.117**	0.082*	-0.052	-0.149	0.024
Paraguay	0.159**	0.331**	-0.212	-0.356	0.33**	0.26**	-0.549	-0.005
Argentina	0.112**	0.148**	-0.245	-0.401	0.195**	0.159**	-0.121	-0.022
Chile	0.098*	0.177**	-0.746	-0.883	0.116**	0.367**	0.071	-0.114

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Figure 5

Table 8

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	CRU	NCEP/NCAR	NCEP/DOE	ERA5	GHCN	CFSR	JRA55
CRU	1	0.974**	0.983**	0.987**	0.993**	0.872**	0.992**
NCEP/NCAR		1	0.984**	0.982**	0.968**	0.866**	0.975**
NCEP/DOE			1	0.989**	0.977**	0.884**	0.978**
ERA5				1	0.983**	0.858**	0.988**
GHCN					1	0.865**	0.996**
CFSR						1	0.863**
JRA55							1

		CRU	NCEP/NCAR	NCEP/DOE	ERA5	GHCN	CFSR	JRA55	MEAN
Annual mean temperature (℃)	Global land	8.793	8.008	8.460	8.556	9.002	8.541	9.093	8.636
	Northern Hemisphere	5.612	4.974	5.397	5.488	5.939	5.579	6.139	5.590
	Southern Hemisphere	21.623	20.493	21.063	21.179	21.532	20.795	21.450	21.162
Rate of change of temperature (℃/10a)	Global land	0.310**	0.283**	0.307**	0.347**	0.403**	0.231**	0.358**	0.320**
	Northern Hemisphere	0.347**	0.332**	0.364**	0.380**	0.439**	0.271**	0.403**	0.362**
	Southern Hemisphere	0.161**	0.081**	0.072*	0.211**	0.267**	0.066*	0.169**	0.147**

Latitude (°N)	Rate of change of temperature (℃/10a)	Temperature variation (℃)	Latitude (°S)	Rate of change of temperature (℃/10a)	Temperature variation (℃)
80-90	0.707**	2.757	10-0	0.182**	0.710
70-80	0.680**	2.652	20-10	0.141**	0.550
60-70	0.484**	1.888	30-20	0.150**	0.585
50-60	0.270**	1.053	40-30	0.105**	0.410
40-50	0.289**	1.127	50-40	0.02	0.078
30-40	0.328**	1.279	60-50	0.004	0.016
20-30	0.316**	1.232
10-20	0.242**	0.944
0-10	0.191**	0.745

Country/region	Author(s)	Data source	Study period	Rate of temperature change (℃/10a)	Main conclusion (℃/10a)
Slovenia	De Luis et al., 2014	Meteorological stations	1959-2008	0.15-0.36	0.23**
Switzerland	Ceppi et al., 2012	Meteorological stations	1959-2008	0.35	0.28**
Nigeria	Oguntunde et al., 2012	CRU	1901-2000	0.03	-0.002
Japan	Fujibe, 2015	Meteorological stations	1979-2013	0.29	0.35**
Canada	Vincent et al., 2007	Meteorological stations	1953-2005	1.2	1.29**
India	Arora et al., 2005	Meteorological stations	1941-1999	0.42	0.57*
South Korea	Kim et al., 2015	Meteorological stations	1960-2010	0.2	0.22**
Saudi Arabia	Almazroui et al., 2012	Meteorological stations	1979-2009	0.51	0.407**
Central Asia	Hu et al., 2014	Meteorological stations	1979-2011	0.41	0.364**
Cambodia	Thoeun, 2015	Meteorological stations	1951-2001	0.23	0.147**
Armenia	Gevorgyan et al., 2016	Meteorological stations	1961-2014	0.18	0.19**
China	Ge et al., 2013	Meteorological stations	1951-2010	0.21±0.02	0.22**
China	Du et al., 2019	Meteorological stations	1998-2012	-0.221	-0.192

Period	Temperature (℃)	Rate of temperature change (℃/10a)
1901-2016	8.260	0.109*
1970-1997	8.277	0.257*
1998-2012	8.965	0.207
1998-2019	9.073	0.279*