City size and employment dynamics in China: Evidence from recruitment website data

doi:10.1007/s11442-021-1920-2

Abstract

Abstract:

This article explored China’s urban employment dynamics with particular focus on the city size effect. Big data derived from the largest recruitment website were used to examine the direct and indirect impacts of city size on employment demand by using mediating and moderating models. We also investigated the roles of the government and location factors which have seldom been considered in literature. Results showed that the concentration degree of new jobs is higher than that of stock employment and population across cities, implying a path dependency mechanism of job creation and employment expansion. Meanwhile, numerous job posts in inland central cities are probably a symptom of more even distribution of employment in future China. Econometric models further verified the significant correlation between city size and job creation. Moreover, industrial diversity, fixed asset investment, and spatial location have heterogeneous effects on employment demand in cities of different sizes and different levels of administration. These results can not only deepen our understanding of the crucial role of city size in urban employment growth but also demonstrate the future trend of labor and population geography of China. Policy implications are then proposed for job creation in cities of China and other developing countries.

Key words: employment dynamics, city size, job creation, industrial diversification, moderating effect, recruitment website

HUANG Daquan, HE Han, LIU Tao. City size and employment dynamics in China: Evidence from recruitment website data[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(12): 1737-1756.

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References 76

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Variable	Definition	Data source
Employment demand	New job positions	www.51job.com
City size	City population	China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook
Second-tertiary ratio	Ratio of the secondary to the tertiary industry	China City Statistical Yearbook
Industrial diversity	Herfindahl-Hirschman index	China City Statistical Yearbook
Provincial capital	Provincial level cities and provincial capitals=1, others=0	China City Statistical Yearbook
Development zone	Area of development zone	Ministry of Natural Resources
Investment	Fixed asset investment	China City Statistical Yearbook
Location	Distance to central city	China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook

Variable	N	Min	Max	Mean	SD
Employment demand	278	39	342,76	9,195.05	35,196.70
City size	278	74.54	2,479.00	204.02	259.10
Second-tertiary ratio	278	0.001	4.58	1.01	0.67
Industrial diversity	278	0.030	0.850	0.172	0.091
Provincial capital	278	0	1	0.31	0.05
Development zone	278	0	30,763	1,411.23	2,830.90
Investment	278	25.78	1,473.3	1,055.17	1,620.38
Location	278	12.00	1,936	227.54	192.10

	Model 1 Nationwide	Model 1a Eastern region	Model 1b Central region	Model 1c Western region
City size	1.538^***(0.365)	1.841^**(0.657)	0.915^**(0.307)	0.571^**(0.208)
Second-tertiary ratio	‒0.007^***(0.002)	0.364^**(0.169)	0.054^**(0.123)	0.125^**(0.041)
Industrial diversity	0.169^**(0.026)	0.195^**(0.067)	0.721^**(0.232)	0.031^*(0.017)
Provincial capital	0.107^*(0.059)	‒0.387^*(0.211)	‒0.093^*(0.051)	0.709(1.86)
Development zone	0.03^*(0.016)	‒0.075^*(0.044)	0.029^*(0.018)	‒0.001(0.057)
Investment	0.382^*(0.198)	0.131^*(0.051)	0.024^*(0.013)	‒0.67^**(0.231)
Location	‒0.079^***(0.015)	‒0.543^***(0.115)	‒0.428^**(0.141)	‒0.153^**(0.054)
N	278	97	83	75
F	127.394^***	31.95^***	27.25^***	9.929^***
Adjustment R²	0.757	0.693	0.703	0.455

	Model 1	Model 2
City size	1.538^***(0.365)	1.529^***(0.316)
Second-tertiary ratio	‒0.007^***(0.002)	‒0.009^**(0.063)
Industrial diversity	0.169^**(0.026)	0.101^**(0.945)
Provincial capital	0.107^*(0.059)	0.124^*(0.082)
Development zone	0.03^*(0.016)	0.025^*(0.013)
Investment	0.382^*(0.198)	0.215^**(0.819)
Location	‒0.079^***(0.015)	‒0.152^**(0.054)
Second-tertiary ratio*City size		0.021(0.015)
Industrial diversity*City size		0.075^**(0.026)
Provincial capitals*City size		‒0.727(0.514)
Development zone*City size		0.335^**(0.129)
Investment*City size		0.112^**(0.042)
Location *City size		0.181^*(0.127)
N	278	278
F	127.394^***	39.328^***
Adjustment R²	0.694	0.771

	Model 3 Employment	Model 4 City size	Model 1 Employment	Mediating effect	Proportion
City size			1.538^***(0.365)
Second-tertiary ratio	‒0.013^**(0.005)	‒0.004^*(0.002)	‒0.007^***(0.002)	0.006	46%
Industrial diversity	0.511^**(0.182)	0.223^**(0.089)	0.169^**(0.026)	0.342	66%
Provincial capital	0.285(0.209)	0.116^***(0.023)	0.107^*(0.059)
Development zone	0.049^*(0.031)	0.013(0.011)	0.03^*(0.016)
Investment	0.788^**(0.301)	0.264(0.211)	0.382^*(0.198)
Location	‒0.115^***(0.025)	‒0.024^**(0.009)	‒0.079^***(0.015)	‒0.039	23%
N	278	278	278
F	78.312^***	47.738^**	127.394^***
Adjustment R²	0.641	0.442	0.757