Recent signal and impact of wet-to-dry climatic shift in Xinjiang, China

doi:10.1007/s11442-021-1898-9

Abstract

Abstract:

The Xinjiang region of China is among the most sensitive regions to global warming. Based on the meteorological and hydrological observation data, the regional wet-to-dry climate regime shifts in Xinjiang were analyzed and the impacts of climatic shift on the eco-hydrological environment of Xinjiang were assessed in this study. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have increased since the mid-1980s, showing a warming-wetting trend. However, drought frequency and severity significantly increased after 1997. The climate of Xinjiang experienced an obvious shift from a warm-wet to a warm-dry regime in 1997. Since the beginning of the 21st century, extreme temperatures and the number of high temperature days have significantly increased, the start date of high temperature has advanced, and the end date of high temperature has delayed in Xinjiang. In addition, the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation have significantly increased. Consequently, regional ecology and water resources have been impacted by climatic shift and extreme climate in Xinjiang. In response, satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index showed that, since the 1980s, most regions of Xinjiang experienced a greening trend and vegetation browning after 1997. The soil moisture in Xinjiang has significantly decreased since the late 1990s, resulting in adverse ecological effects. Moreover, the response of river runoff to climatic shift is complex and controlled by the proportion of snowmelt to the runoff. Runoff originating from the Tianshan Mountains showed a positive response to the regional wet-to-dry shift, whereas that originating from the Kunlun Mountains showed no obvious response. Both climatic shift and increased climate extremes in Xinjiang have led to intensification of drought and aggravation of instability of water circulation systems and ecosystem. This study provides a scientiﬁc basis to meet the challenges of water resource utilization and ecological risk management in the Xinjiang region of China.

Key words: climatic shift, wet-to-dry, water resources, drought, Xinjiang

YAO Junqiang, MAO Weiyi, CHEN Jing, DILINUER Tuoliewubieke. Recent signal and impact of wet-to-dry climatic shift in Xinjiang, China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(9): 1283-1298.

Figures/Tables 11

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Table 2

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

References 41

[1]	Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano S M, Reig F et al., 2004. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: Parameter ﬁtting, evapotranspiration models, kernel weighting, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. International Journal of Climatology, 34: 3001-3023. doi: 10.1002/joc.2014.34.issue-10
[2]	Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb et al., 2012. The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science, 336(6079): 310-314. doi: 10.1126/science.1215828 pmid: 22517852
[3]	Cao Y P, Nan Z T, Cheng G D, 2015. GRACE gravity satellite observations of terrestrial water storage changes for drought characterization in the arid land of northwestern China. Remote Sensing, 7(1): 1021-1047. doi: 10.3390/rs70101021
[4]	Chen Y N, Li W H, Deng H J et al., 2017. Changes in Central Asia’s water tower: Past, present and future. Scientific Reports, 6: 35458. doi: 10.1038/srep35458
[5]	Chen Y, Li Z, Fan Y et al., 2015. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China. Environ. Res., 139: 11-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2014.12.029.
[6]	Chen Y N, Zhang X Q, Fang G H et al., 2020. Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China. Regional Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.003.
[7]	Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, 2006. The characteristics of variation of Xinjiang water vapor sources in recent years. Progress in Natural Science, 16(12): 1651-1656. (in Chinese)
[8]	Farinotti D, Longuevergne L, Moholdt G et al., 2015. Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years. Nature Geoscience, 8(9): 716-722. doi: 10.1038/NGEO2513
[9]	Feng S, Hu Q, 2008. How the North Atlantic multidecadal oscillation may have influenced the Indian summer monsoon during the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters, 35: L01707.
[10]	Goswami B N, Madhusoodanan M S, Neema C P et al., 2006. A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L02706.
[11]	He B, Lü A F, Wu J J et al., 2011. Drought hazard assessment and spatial characteristics analysis in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(2): 235-249. doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0841-x
[12]	Hewitt K, 2005. The Karakoram anomaly? Glacier expansion and the ‘elevation effect’, Karakoram Himalaya. Mountain Research and Development, 25: 332-340. doi: 10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0332:TKAGEA]2.0.CO;2
[13]	Huang W, Chang S, Xie C et al., 2017. Moisture sources of extreme summer precipitation events in North Xinjiang and their relationship with atmospheric circulation. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(1): 12-17. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.02.001. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.02.001
[14]	Huang W, Feng S, Chen J H et al., 2015. Physical mechanisms of summer precipitation variations in the Tarim Basin in northwestern China. J. Clim., 28(9): 3579-3591.
[15]	Kapnick S B, Delworth T L, Ashfaq M et al., 2014. Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle. Nature Geoscience, 7: 834-840. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2269
[16]	Li Z, Chen Y N, Fang G H et al., 2017. Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia. Scientific Reports, 7: 1316. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-01473-1
[17]	Ma Z G, Fu C B, Yang Q et al., 2018. Drying trend in northern China and its shift during 1951-2016. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 42(4): 951-961. (in Chinese)
[18]	Piao S L, Tan J G, Chen A P et al., 2015. Leaf onset in the Northern Hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature. Nature Communications, 6: 6911. doi: 10.1038/ncomms7911
[19]	Shen M G, Piao S L, Jeong S J et al., 2015. Evaporative cooling over the Tibetan Plateau induced by vegetation growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(30): 9299-9304.
[20]	Shi Y, Shen Y, Kang E et al., 2007. Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Climatic Change, 80(3/4): 379-393. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7
[21]	Shi Y, Shen Y, Li D et al., 2003. Discussion on the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China. Quaternary Sciences, 23(2): 152-164. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2003.02.005. (in Chinese)
[22]	Tao H, Borth H, Fraedrich K et al., 2014. Drought and wetness variability in the Tarim River Basin and connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 34(8): 2678-2684. doi: 10.1002/joc.3867
[23]	Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I, 2010a. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23(7): 1696-1718. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
[24]	Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I et al., 2010b. A new global 0.5 gridded dataset (1901-2006) of a multiscale drought index: Comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11: 1033-1043. doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1224.1
[25]	Vicente-Serrano S M, Lopez-Moreno J I, Beguería S et al., 2015. Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 9(4): 044001. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001
[26]	Wang S J, Zhang M J, Li Z Q et al., 2011. Glacier area variation and climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(2): 263-273. doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0843-8
[27]	Yang L M, Guang X M F, Zhang Y X, 2018. Study on atmospheric circulation characteristics of precipitation anomalies in arid region of Central Asia. Arid Zone Research, 35(2): 249-259. (in Chinese)
[28]	Yang L M, Zhang Q Y, 2007. Circulation characteristics of interannual and interdecadal anomalies of summer rainfall in north Xinjiang. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 50(2): 412-419. (in Chinese) doi: 10.1002/cjg2.v50.2
[29]	Yang Q, Li M X, Zheng Z Y et al., 2017. Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China. Science China Earth Sciences, 47(3): 337-353.
[30]	Yao J, Chen Y, Zhao Y et al., 2020. Climatic and associated atmospheric water cycle changes over Xinjiang, China. Journal of Hydrology, 585: 124823. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124823. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124823
[31]	Yao J, Hu W, Chen Y et al., 2019. Hydro-climatic changes and their impacts on vegetation in Xinjiang, Central Asia. Science of The Total Environment, 660: 724-732. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.084
[32]	Yao J Q, Chen Y N, Zhao Y et al., 2018a. Response of vegetation NDVI to climatic extremes in the arid region of Central Asia: A case study in Xinjiang, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131: 1503-1515. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2058-0
[33]	Yao J Q, Yang Q, Mao W Y et al., 2016. Precipitation trend-Elevation relationship in arid regions of China. Global and Planetary Change, 143: 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.05.007
[34]	Yao J Q, Zhao Y, Chen Y et al., 2018b. Multi-scale assessments of droughts: A case study in Xinjiang, China. Science of The Total Environment, 630: 444-452. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.200
[35]	Zhai J Q, Su B D, Krysan V, 2010. Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamﬂow in 10 large regions of China. Journal of Climate, 23: 649-663. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2968.1
[36]	Zhang J, Shen Y J, 2019. Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961-2015. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(1): 67-83. doi: 10.1007/s11442-019-1584-3
[37]	Zhang J, Sun F B, Liu W B et al., 2019. Spatio-temporal patterns of drought evolution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(6): 863-876. doi: 10.1007/s11442-019-1633-y
[38]	Zhang Q, Li J Y, Singh Vijay P et al., 2012. SPI-based evaluation of drought events in Xinjiang, China. Nature Hazards, 64(1): 481-492. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0251-0
[39]	Zhang Q, Zhang L, Cui X C et al., 2011. Progresses and challenges in drought assessment and monitoring. Advances in Earth Science, 26(7): 763-778.
[40]	Zhao B K, Cai C X, Yang L M et al., 2006. Atmospheric circulation anomalies during wetting summer over Xinjiang region. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 28(3): 434-442. (in Chinese)
[41]	Zhu Z C, Bi J, Pan Y Z et al., 2013. Global data sets of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) 3g and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) 3g derived from global inventory modeling and mapping studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) for the period 1981 to 2011. Remote Sensing, 5(2): 927-948. doi: 10.3390/rs5020927

Category	Index value
Extremely wet	SPEI≥2
Moderately wet	1.5≤SPEI<1.99
Slightly wet	1≤SPEI<1.49
Near normal	-0.99<SPEI<0.99
Mild drought	-1.49<SPEI≤-1
Moderate drought	-1.99<SPEI≤-1.5
Extreme drought	SPEI≤-2

Depth (cm)	0-50	0-10	10-20	20-30	30-40	40-50
Mean value (%)	11.3	9.5	10.7	11.5	12.0	12.9
Trend (%/10a)	-3.8	-3.6	-4.0	-3.5	-3.0	-2.3