Characteristics of industrial structure evolution and isomorphism in Central Asia

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1812-x

Abstract

Abstract:

This study undertakes a systematic examination of characteristics of the spatio-temporal evolution of industrial economies in Central Asia from the perspectives of industrial scale, structural rationality, industrial competitiveness, and industrial isomorphism. The results show that industrial structures in Central Asian countries are becoming increasingly advanced, with certain differences among them in the characteristics of this evolution. Kazakhstan has long had a tertiary-secondary-primary industrial pattern, and productive services have played an increasingly prominent role in the development of its tertiary industry. The transformation of the industrial structure in Uzbekistan, from a secondary-tertiary- primary pattern at its independence from the Soviet Union to a tertiary-secondary-primary pattern, is apparent. Tajikistan’s industrial structure has also changed significantly in recent times. Its secondary industries shrunk while tertiary industries developed rapidly. In Kyrgyzstan, the ratios of secondary and tertiary industries to total industrial output have fluctuated significantly while considerable progress has been made in the service sector. The industrial structure of Turkmenistan is significantly lower than the other countries, and Turkmenistan is the only country in the Central Asian region which still shows a tertiary-secondary-primary industrial pattern. The feasibility and competitiveness of the industrial structures of these five Central Asian countries have different characteristics. Kazakhstan has structural advantages but lags in competitiveness, Uzbekistan is driven by both structural and competitive advantages, Tajikistan enjoys structural advantages while Kyrgyzstan lags behind in competitiveness, and Turkmenistan has a competitiveness-driven economy. Furthermore, values of the similar coefficient index of the three industrial structures in these countries were mostly above 0.95, the coefficients of the secondary industrial subdivisions in some countries were below 0.85, and those of tertiary industrial subdivisions among most countries were above 0.89, indicating considerable similarities in industrial structure among them. These findings are important in the context of establishing an effective industrial development strategy for the Silk Road Economic Belt, improving international cooperation, and upgrading industrial structures to achieve economic prosperity.

Key words: industrial structure, evolution, industrial isomorphism, shift-share analysis, similar coefficient index, Central Asian countries

KANG Lei, LIU Yi. Characteristics of industrial structure evolution and isomorphism in Central Asia[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1781-1801.

Figures/Tables 10

Figure 1

Figure 2

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Figure 3

Figure 4

References 32

1	Bi Y R, Shi B, 2010. Measurement and analysis of trade potential between China and five Central Asian countries: Study of trade complementarity index and gravity model. Asia-Pacific Economic Review, (3):47-51. (in Chinese)
2	Chang Q, 2001. Discussion on economic system and development model of five Central Asian countries. Social Sciences in Xinjiang, (1):65-71. (in Chinese)
3	Ding Z G, Pan X Y, 2017. Evaluation and proposals of investment climate in Central Asian countries against the background of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Russian Central Asian & East European Market, (2):53-72. (in Chinese)
4	Duarte P., 2014. Central Asia: The planet’s pivot area. Revista Española de Relaciones Internacionales, (6):159-206.
5	Gang C C, Ren B P, 2015. The development mode of the five Central Asian countries on the background of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Reform, (1):109-118. (in Chinese)
6	Gao Z G, 2013. An analysis of status quo and slow development of regional economic cooperation among Central Asian countries. Journal of Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, (4):12-18. (in Chinese)
7	Hu H P, 2004. Analysis of economic situation of Central Asian countries. Russian Central Asian & East European Market, (10):20-26. (in Chinese)
8	Huang Q, 2017. Analysis of the problems of the three major industries in Tajikistan. Northern Economy and Trade, (2):9-10. (in Chinese)
9	Kundsen D C, 2000. Shift-share analysis: Further examination of models for the description of economic change. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 34(3):177-198.
10	Li L Q, Kong X, Li Y M et al., 2019. The selection of the strategic pivot in China-Central Asia cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. Geographical Research, 38(7):1705-1719. (in Chinese)
11	Lu Q, Zhang C Y, 2008. An evidential analysis of the relation between the evolution of industrial structure and economic growth in Henan. China Population, Resources and Environment, 18(1):111-115. (in Chinese)
12	Megoran N, Sharapova S, 2005. MacKinder’s “heartland”: A help or hindrance in understanding Central Asia’s international relations? Central Asia and the Caucasus, 34(4):8-20.
13	Ren Q L, Ivan S, 2015. A comparative study of industrial international competitiveness between Xinjiang, China and Kazakhstan. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, (2):67-74. (in Chinese)
14	Shi T G, Zhang X L, Du H R et al., 2013. Manufacturing spatial distribution and structural characteristics in Central Asia. Arid Land Geography, 36(4):749-756. (in Chinese)
15	Sun L, Fu L, Shen A B, 2012. Analysis of industrial structure evolution in Kazakhstan. Social Sciences in Xinjiang, (5):76-81. (in Chinese)
16	Sun L, Wu H W, 2017. Annual Report on Development of Central Asia(2017). Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press (in Chinese) Social Sciences Academic Press. (in Chinese)
17	Tang H, Chen D B, 2015. Development features and temporal-spatial evolution of economy in Central Asia in the past 20 years. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 32(2):214-220. (in Chinese)
18	Tang H, Yang D G, Chen D B et al., 2014. Development of energy industry and its impact on regional economy in the Central Asia. Arid Land Geography, 37(3):630-637. (in Chinese)
19	The Belt and Road Initiative and the future of Central Asian economic integration. Modern Economic Information, (7): 154-155,157. (in Chinese)
20	UNIDO, 1979. World Industry Since 1960: Progress and Prospects. New York: United Nations.
21	Wang H Y, 2002. Complementary analysis of economic cooperation between the five Central Asian countries and Xinjiang, China. East European, Russian & Central Asian Market Studies, (2):10-16. (in Chinese)
22	Wang H Y, 2004. Economic reforms and effects in five Central Asian countries. Russian Central Asian & East European Market, (7):12-18. (in Chinese)
23	Wang S J, Zhang M J, Chen F L et al., 2015. Comparison of GCM-simulated isotopic compositions of precipitation in arid Central Asia. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(7):771-783.
24	Wang Y F, Hua Y T, 2008. The authentic research on the industry structure convergence in the Bohai Rim Region. Economy and Management, 22(2):30-33. (in Chinese)
25	Wei M L, 2015. Study on industrial development and structural complementarity between Shaanxi province and five Central Asian countries. Journal of Shaanxi University of Technology (Social Sciences), 33(3): 64-70. (in Chinese)
26	Wen Y N, 2011. Comparison of industrial structure between Xinjiang, China and five Central Asian countries. Russian & Central Asian Market Studies, (11):25-33. (in Chinese)
27	Xian G Z, Tian C Y, 2017. Analysis of economic development in five Central Asian countries. China Business Update, (10):31-36. (in Chinese)
28	Yang J H, 2012. Analysis of advantages and development status of characteristic industries in Uzbekistan. Economic Vision, (3):68-70. (in Chinese)
29	Yang Y, Liu Y, Jin F J, 2015. Study on energy cooperation between China and the Central Asia and Russia under the view of energy geopolitics. Geographical Research, 34(2):213-224. (in Chinese)
30	Zhang J Y, Chen Y I, Li Z, 2018. Assessment of efficiency and potentiality of agricultural resources in Central Asia. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(9):1329-1340.
31	Zheng G F, 2009. Analysis on the system transition and economic development in Turkmenistan. Journal of Hexi University, (3):67-72. (in Chinese)
32	Zhu X M, Xu S B, 2007. A review of Chinese regional convergence of industrial structure research. Human Geography, 22(2):20-22, 86. (in Chinese)

Country	Year	Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing	Mining, manufacturing, utilities	Manufacturing	Construction	Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels	Transport, storage, communication
Kazakhstan	1990	9.80	26.91	10.34	10.42	11.23	13.61
	2000	6.97	35.13	12.95	3.89	12.89	10.22
	2010	4.51	32.90	11.32	7.70	13.86	11.12
	2016	4.35	27.25	10.24	7.59	16.45	13.07
Uzbekistan	1990	17.60	37.58	31.58	6.92	7.39	18.43
	2000	19.36	28.74	24.11	4.95	8.04	9.09
	2010	17.95	24.23	20.28	6.03	9.59	11.76
	2016	16.85	20.81	17.41	5.23	17.07	13.59
Tajikistan	1990	12.54	27.81	27.81	8.89	15.07	4.56
	2000	18.46	27.13	27.13	6.14	14.88	3.80
	2010	19.59	14.74	14.74	10.23	20.24	11.16
	2016	19.35	12.71	12.71	9.95	25.41	9.12
Kyrgyzstan	1990	12.26	40.18	34.83	9.39	11.37	7.89
	2000	21.15	28.70	23.18	3.72	10.88	4.28
	2010	17.45	20.74	16.86	5.52	17.17	9.07
	2016	15.33	17.82	13.70	9.98	21.66	9.44
Turkmenistan	1990	32.89	25.90	25.53	3.71	8.91	12.12
	2000	22.95	35.04	33.01	6.77	3.51	6.63
	2010	14.07	38.99	36.75	7.84	4.21	6.43
	2016	13.11	41.38	39.00	8.32	4.08	6.24

Period	Industry type	Gj	Nj	Pj	Dj	(PD)j
1990-1999	Primary	-46.18	-4.38	-29.26	-12.54	-41.80
	Secondary	-134.86	-45.52	-77.32	-12.02	-89.34
	Tertiary	-192.06	-99.03	-99.35	6.32	-93.03
2000-2009	Primary	28.90	3.02	21.53	4.35	25.88
	Secondary	295.32	108.03	164.42	22.87	187.29
	Tertiary	383.27	170.91	184.83	27.53	212.36
2010-2016	Primary	16.15	2.38	24.17	-10.41	13.77
	Secondary	62.48	58.13	85.33	-80.98	4.36
	Tertiary	271.77	182.88	179.19	-90.31	88.89

Period	Industry type	Gj	Nj	Pj	Dj	(PD)j
1990-1999	Primary	1.77	-1.68	-11.18	14.63	3.45
	Secondary	-24.31	-11.55	-19.61	6.86	-12.76
	Tertiary	-49.47	-25.13	-25.21	0.87	-24.34
2000-2009	Primary	27.64	2.53	18.02	7.10	25.12
	Secondary	44.27	28.11	42.78	-26.62	16.16
	Tertiary	70.77	42.29	45.74	-17.26	28.48
2010-2016	Primary	33.06	2.53	25.69	4.84	30.53
	Secondary	41.17	11.56	16.98	12.63	29.61
	Tertiary	153.73	40.27	39.46	74.00	113.46

Period	Industry type	Gj	Nj	Pj	Dj	(PD)j
1990-1999	Primary	-4.32	-0.40	-2.66	-1.26	-3.92
	Secondary	-15.83	-3.17	-5.39	-7.26	-12.66
	Tertiary	-17.97	-5.38	-5.40	-7.18	-12.59
2000-2009	Primary	5.55	0.31	2.21	3.03	5.24
	Secondary	4.72	3.58	5.45	-4.30	1.14
	Tertiary	13.90	5.09	5.50	3.31	8.81
2010-2016	Primary	4.56	0.39	4.00	0.17	4.17
	Secondary	4.19	1.36	2.00	0.83	2.83
	Tertiary	13.21	6.08	5.96	1.17	7.13

Period	Industry type	Gj	Nj	Pj	Dj	(PD)j
1990-1999	Primary	0.69	-0.27	-1.83	2.80	0.97
	Secondary	-13.56	-3.02	-5.13	-5.41	-10.54
	Tertiary	-7.49	-3.95	-3.96	0.43	-3.53
2000-2009	Primary	1.81	0.44	3.13	-1.76	1.37
	Secondary	1.82	4.30	6.55	-9.03	-2.48
	Tertiary	10.13	7.12	7.70	-4.70	3.00
2010-2016	Primary	1.28	0.30	3.03	-2.04	0.98
	Secondary	4.90	1.22	1.79	1.90	3.69
	Tertiary	7.98	5.65	5.54	-3.21	2.33