Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 1702-1720.doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1808-6
• Research Articles • Previous Articles
YUAN Lihua1(), SONG Changqing1,2,*(
), CHENG Changxiu1,2, SHEN Shi1,2, CHEN Xiaoqiang1, WANG Yuanhui1
Accepted:
2020-06-02
Online:
2020-10-25
Published:
2020-10-27
Contact:
SONG Changqing
E-mail:geobnuer@mail.bnu.edu.cn;songcq@bnu.edu.cn
About author:
Yuan Lihua (1988-), PhD Candidate, specialized in trade relationships and regional studies. E-mail: geobnuer@mail.bnu.edu.cn
Supported by:
YUAN Lihua, SONG Changqing, CHENG Changxiu, SHEN Shi, CHEN Xiaoqiang, WANG Yuanhui. The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1702-1720.
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Table 1
Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables"
Dyads | Direction | Variables | Descriptions of variables |
---|---|---|---|
USA-CHN dyad | USA-CHN | UCp, UCf | Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from the USA toward China |
CHN-USA | CUp, CUf | Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from China toward the USA | |
USA-RUS dyad | USA-RUS | URp, URf | Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from the USA toward Russia |
RUS-USA | RUp, RUf | Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from Russia toward the USA | |
RUS-CHN dyad | RUS-CHN | RCp, RCf | Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from Russia toward China |
RUS-CHN | CRp, CRf | Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from China toward Russia |
Table 2
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods"
Independent variables | 1992.01-2001.09 period | 2001.10-2016.12 period | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable | Dependent variable | |||||||
UCp | CUp | UCf | CUf | UCp | CUp | UCf | CUf | |
UCp(-1) | - | 0.038*** | 0.091** | 0.159* | - | 0.767 | 0.681 | 0.615 |
CUp(-1) | 0.649 | - | 0.090** | 0.389 | 0.572 | - | 0.306 | 0.234 |
URp(-1) | 0.296 | 0.460 | 0.161* | 0.543 | 0.052** | 0.033*** | 0.054** | 0.571 |
RUp(-1) | 0.264 | 0.383 | 0.208 | 0.849 | 0.156* | 0.146* | 0.224 | 0.633 |
RCp(-1) | 0.007*** | 0.019*** | 0.328 | 0.024*** | 0.444 | 0.342 | 0.503 | 0.619 |
CRp(-1) | 0.007*** | 0.018*** | 0.382 | 0.018*** | 0.432 | 0.331 | 0.319 | 0.646 |
UCf(-1) | 0.866 | 0.754 | - | 0.149* | 0.027*** | 0.031* | - | 0.010*** |
CUf(-1) | 0.295 | 0.537 | 0.042*** | - | 0.760 | 0.698 | 0.269 | - |
URf(-1) | 0.143* | 0.210 | 0.146* | 0.012*** | 0.833 | 0.836 | 0.083** | 0.078** |
RUf(-1) | 0.872 | 0.873 | 0.933 | 0.867 | 0.856 | 0.979 | 0.101* | 0.550 |
RCf(-1) | 0.223 | 0.485 | 0.357 | 0.880 | 0.127* | 0.055** | 0.283 | 0.671 |
CRf(-1) | 0.473 | 0.561 | 0.496 | 0.669 | 0.557 | 0.253 | 0.829 | 0.731 |
R2 | 0.726 | 0.713 | 0.558 | 0.570 | 0.892 | 0.897 | 0.912 | 0.914 |
Adjusted R2 | 0.694 | 0.680 | 0.506 | 0.519 | 0.884 | 0.890 | 0.905 | 0.908 |
F-statistic | 22.741 | 21.320 | 10.826 | 11.356 | 115.926 | 122.708 | 145.113 | 149.057 |
Table 3
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods"
Independent variables | 1992.01-2001.09 period | 2001.10-2016.12 period | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable | Dependent variable | |||||||
URp | RUp | URf | RUf | URp | RUp | URf | RUf | |
UCp(-1) | 0.759 | 0.642 | 0.431 | 0.190* | 0.097 | 0.060** | 0.678 | 0.720 |
CUp(-1) | 0.842 | 0.719 | 0.568 | 0.273 | 0.055** | 0.032*** | 0.642 | 0.840 |
URp(-1) | - | 0.579 | 0.304 | 0.123* | - | 0.827 | 0.762 | 0.900 |
RUp(-1) | 0.112* | - | 0.163* | 0.113* | 0.856 | - | 0.805 | 0.766 |
RCp(-1) | 0.518 | 0.388 | 0.504 | 0.753 | 0.930 | 0.862 | 0.887 | 0.916 |
CRp(-1) | 0.250 | 0.166* | 0.338 | 0.535 | 0.944 | 0.878 | 0.927 | 0.938 |
UCf(-1) | 0.832 | 0.770 | 0.656 | 0.919 | 0.057** | 0.049*** | 0.308 | 0.208 |
CUf(-1) | 0.651 | 0.387 | 0.796 | 0.878 | 0.937 | 0.720 | 0.460 | 0.644 |
URf(-1) | 0.391 | 0.626 | - | 0.332 | 0.123* | 0.159* | - | 0.003*** |
RUf(-1) | 0.863 | 0.559 | 0.511 | - | 0.430 | 0.287 | 0.787 | - |
RCf(-1) | 0.969 | 0.958 | 0.723 | 0.585 | 0.416 | 0.470 | 0.346 | 0.675 |
CRf(-1) | 0.978 | 0.941 | 0.542 | 0.605 | 0.604 | 0.428 | 0.886 | 0.535 |
R2 | 0.553 | 0.540 | 0.597 | 0.604 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.880 | 0.849 |
Adjusted R2 | 0.501 | 0.486 | 0.550 | 0.558 | 0.860 | 0.860 | 0.872 | 0.839 |
F-statistic | 10.628 | 10.075 | 12.707 | 13.093 | 93.769 | 93.501 | 103.572 | 79.374 |
Table 4
The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of China-Russia dyad in both periods"
Independent variables | 1992.01-2001.09 period | 2001.10-2016.12 period | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable | Dependent variable | |||||||
RCp | CRp | RCf | CRf | RCp | CRp | RCf | CRf | |
UCp(-1) | 0.919 | 0.795 | 0.950 | 0.553 | 0.445 | 0.446 | 0.613 | 0.339 |
CUp(-1) | 0.673 | 0.807 | 0.626 | 0.728 | 0.236 | 0.263 | 0.856 | 0.538 |
URp(-1) | 0.627 | 0.502 | 0.598 | 0.091 | 0.011*** | 0.011*** | 0.312 | 0.172* |
RUp(-1) | 0.732 | 0.681 | 0.914 | 0.044*** | 0.007*** | 0.009*** | 0.277 | 0.163* |
RCp(-1) | - | 0.601 | 0.911 | 0.119* | - | 0.845 | 0.745 | 0.799 |
CRp(-1) | 0.480 | - | 0.971 | 0.415 | 0.696 | - | 0.851 | 0.603 |
UCf(-1) | 0.006*** | 0.001*** | 0.973 | 0.608 | 0.514 | 0.661 | 0.581 | 0.777 |
CUf(-1) | 0.004*** | 0.001*** | 0.614 | 0.602 | 0.303 | 0.398 | 0.359 | 0.195* |
URf(-1) | 0.965 | 0.453 | 0.131* | 0.048*** | 0.062** | 0.153* | 0.028*** | 0.195* |
RUf(-1) | 0.745 | 0.670 | 0.187* | 0.905 | 0.566 | 0.833 | 0.181* | 0.360 |
RCf(-1) | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | - | 0.887 | 0.272 | 0.214 | - | 0.198* |
CRf(-1) | 0.001*** | 0.000*** | 0.054** | - | 0.184* | 0.202 | 0.917 | - |
R2 | 0.539 | 0.561 | 0.444 | 0.454 | 0.692 | 0.684 | 0.682 | 0.695 |
Adj. R2 | 0.485 | 0.509 | 0.379 | 0.391 | 0.670 | 0.662 | 0.659 | 0.673 |
F-statistic | 10.024 | 10.947 | 6.845 | 7.145 | 31.616 | 30.524 | 30.180 | 32.109 |
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