Patterns and trends in grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau during 1985-2016

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1801-0

Abstract

Abstract:

Capacity for grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important basis for ensuring social stability and regional sustainability. Thus, based on county-level statistical data for population, grain production and consumption, we analyzed patterns and trends in grain supply and demand at regional, provincial, and county levels on the TP between 1985 and 2016. We applied two indices to evaluate capacity for grain self-sufficiency and found that the regional average self-sufficiency rate increased quickly by 1.97%/a since 1989, reaching 173.03% on the plateau over the period between 2010 and 2016. This indicates that grain supply in this region is able to fully meet demand. In addition, all provinces apart from Xinjiang exhibited similar increasing trends, attaining grain self-sufficiency during 2010-2016. Furthermore, 59% of counties attained grain self-sufficiency over this period, mainly distributed in southern Tibet, in the Sichuan-Tibet junction area, and in eastern Qinghai Province. A number of gaps in grain supply and demand occurred within the headwater regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers as well as on the Qiangtang Plateau. Grain self-sufficiency significantly increased over the study period in 36% of counties, mainly distributed in the agricultural areas of southeastern Tibet and in eastern Qinghai. Across the whole plateau, capacity for grain self-sufficiency substantially increased between 1985 and 2016, although serious spatial imbalances remain.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, grain, county scale, self-sufficiency, spatiotemporal distribution

SHI Wenjiao, LU Changhe, SHI Xiaoli, CUI Jiaying. Patterns and trends in grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau during 1985-2016[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1590-1602.

Figures/Tables 7

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County	Adjustment in grain production (P_all)	Adjustment in grain consumption (C_all)
Minle	P_all × 0.005	C_all × 0.002
Shandan	P_all × 0.001	C_all × 0.001
Qiemo	P_all × 0.014	C_all × 0.024
Yutian	P_all × 0.006	C_all × 0.017
Minfeng	P_all × 0.042	C_all × 0.033

Provincial component	Period	Production (×10⁴ t)	Consumption (×10⁴ t)	Self-sufficiency rate (%)	Supply-demand gap (×10⁴ t)
Sichuan	1985-1989	113.35	79.24	143.05	-34.11
	1990-1999	125.92	82.59	152.47	-43.33
	2000-2009	122.62	79.89	153.49	-42.73
	2010-2016	135.03	70.83	190.63	-64.20
Yunnan	1985-1989	55.50	35.04	158.37	-20.46
	1990-1999	66.98	45.53	147.09	-21.44
	2000-2009	79.70	40.36	197.48	-39.34
	2010-2016	99.59	38.35	259.67	-61.24
Gansu	1985-1989	54.78	64.10	85.47	9.31
	1990-1999	64.35	72.12	89.22	7.77
	2000-2009	76.92	78.98	97.39	2.06
	2010-2016	99.66	61.82	161.20	-37.83
Xinjiang	1985-1989	0.82	1.78	46.16	0.96
	1990-1999	1.19	2.06	57.49	0.88
	2000-2009	1.26	2.25	55.85	1.00
	2010-2016	2.67	2.92	91.32	0.25
Tibet	1985-1989	51.74	39.22	131.94	-12.52
	1990-1999	70.35	49.98	140.77	-20.37
	2000-2009	94.41	64.63	146.07	-29.78
	2010-2016	96.86	71.77	134.96	-25.09
Qinghai	1985-1989	105.08	83.39	126.01	-21.69
	1990-1999	113.32	93.31	121.44	-20.01
	2000-2009	88.84	91.67	96.91	2.83
	2010-2016	124.61	76.68	162.50	-47.92

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