Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1219-1232.doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1778-8

• Research Articles •     Next Articles

Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2

ZHANG Chi1(), WU Shaohong1, LENG Guoyong2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2019-12-31 Accepted:2020-05-22 Online:2020-08-25 Published:2020-10-25
  • About author:Zhang Chi (1986-), PhD, specialized in moisture tracking and climate change. E-mail:
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1509003);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1508902);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701033);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040304)


Based on simulations by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 2 (BCC-CSM2), the possible changes in net primary productivity (NPP) of the terrestrial ecosystem in China during the 21st century are explored under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2) 4.5 scenario. We found both the near-term and long-term terrestrial NPP basically shows a unanimously increasing trend, which indicates low ecosystem productivity risk in the future. However, the simple linear regression is insufficient to characterize the long-term variation of NPP. Using the piecewise linear regression approach, we identify a decreasing trend of NPP in large areas for the latter part of the 21st century. In the northeast region (NER) from east Inner Mongolia to west Heilongjiang province, NPP decreases significantly after 2059 at a rate of -0.9% dec-1. In the south region (SR) from Zhejiang to Guangxi provinces, a rapid decline of -2.4% dec-1 is detected after 2085. Further analysis reveals that the rapid decline in SR is primarily attributed to the decrease in precipitation, with temperature playing a secondary role, while the NPP decline in NER seems to have no evident relations with climate change. These findings are useful for making preparations for potential ecosystem crisis in China in the future.

Key words: climate change, NPP, ecosystem risk, turning point, SSP245