Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of urbanization in China’s border areas

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1755-2

Abstract

Abstract:

Border area is not only an important gateway for inland opening-up, but also an important part of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and optimizing national urban spatial pattern in China. Due to the location, natural resources endowment, and traffic accessibility, the urbanization speed is relatively slow in border areas. Therefore, it is a special area that needs to pay close attention to, especially under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s regional coordinated development program. Based on the county-level data from 2000 to 2015, this paper tries to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urbanization in 134 border counties, and applies geographical detector method to study the driving forces of urbanization in border areas. Conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2015, urbanization rate in border areas has been lower than the national average, and the gap has been widening. Some border counties in southern Xinjiang, Tibet, northeast of Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan, are even facing the problem of population loss. (2) In the same period, urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border is low, while their urbanization rate grows relatively faster comparing with other border counties; urbanization rate in Tibet border is the lowest and grows relatively slowly; urbanization rate in the northeastern and northern border is slightly higher, but it grows slowly or even stagnates. (3) Transportation and industry are the important driving forces of urbanization in border areas, while the driving forces of market is relatively weak. And there are obvious mutual reinforcements among the driving forces, while the effort and explanatory power of resource force increases obviously after interaction. (4) Urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border areas grows relatively fast, with industrial force and transportation force, market force and administrative force as the main driving forces respectively. Tibet border area has the lowest urbanization rate and growth rate, as the driving force of urbanization with strong contribution has not yet formed in Tibet. In the northeastern and northern border areas, the contribution of transportation force to urbanization is greater than other forces, and its interaction with market and industry has obvious effects.

Key words: border area, urbanization, spatio-temporal pattern, driving force, China

SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of urbanization in China’s border areas[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(5): 775-793.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Drivers of urban development in China’s border areas and their weights"

	Indicator	Units			Description		Data source		Weight
Natural force	Average annual precipitation	mm			Measures the livability of climatic conditions via the average annual precipitation of county-level units		China Meteorological Data Service Center (CMDC)		0.25
	Average annual temperature	℃			Measures the livability of climatic conditions via the average annual temperature of county-level units		China Meteorological Data Service Center (CMDC)		0.25
	Average altitude	km			Measures the topographic conditions in border areas via average elevation of county-level units		Geospatial Data Cloud		0.25
	Arable land area	ha			Measures the scale of arable land in border areas		China Economic and Social Development Statistics Database		0.25
Administrative force	Local fiscal expenditure	10,000 RMB			Measures the administrative and regulatory capacity of local governments		China Statistical Yearbook (County-Level)		0.3
	Public and private fixed-asset investment	10,000 RMB			Measures the economic capacity of local governments		China Statistical Yearbook (County-Level)		0.3
	Preferential policy index	/	Measures national policy support (at a scale of 0-5 based on the following five policy conditions) 1 = West China Development and Northeast Revitalization programs 2 = Pilot for supporting reforms along borders and pilot for supporting reform of modern agriculture 3 = Border economic cooperation zone, comprehensive free trade zone or “prosperity to border areas and their residents” pilots 4 = Key experimental zones for development and opening up 5 = Cross-border economic cooperation zones			Websites of Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission			0.4
Market force	Total retail sales of consumer goods	10,000 RMB	Measures the size of domestic markets in border areas			China Statistical Yearbook (County-level)			0.4
	Bilateral trade	10,000 USD	Measures the level of trade development in border areas			International Trade Centre databases			0.2
	Bilateral economic integration	/	Measures the bilateral trade environment (with integration scores of 0-3) 0 = The two countries have no trade agreement 1 = Both countries have joined economic organizations or agreements, such as WTO, CAFTA, BRI, etc. 2 = Countries are in bilateral trade negotiations 3 = Countries have signed a bilateral free trade agreement			Websites of Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission			0.2
	Market opportunities	/	Measures market size, market expectations, etc., of neighboring countries in border areas (expressed as per capita GDP of neighboring country/per capita GDP of border area)			China Statistical Yearbook (County-level) & World Bank databases			0.2
Industrial force	Industrial output	10,000 RMB	Measures the level of industrialization			China Statistical Yearbook (County-level)			0.4
	Tourism revenue	Million USD	Measures the level of development of tourism			China Statistical Yearbook			0.3
	GRP	100 million RMB	Measures overall industrial development			China Statistical Yearbook (County-level)			0.3
Transportation force	Transport route density	km/km²	Measures level of transportation access to China’s hinterland (the ratio of the length of transport routes to the administrative area, including road and rail routes)			China Statistical Yearbook			0.4
	Transport status	/	Determines whether a county is an important transportation node in China’s opening up drive			Websites of Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission			0.3
	Air transport development	/	Measures the level of aviation development (0-3 assigned based on airport construction) 0 = No airport of category 3C or higher 1 = has a 3C airport 2 = has a 4C airport 3 = has a 4D airport			General Aviation Resource Net of China			0.3
Social force	Proportion of population made up of ethnic minorities	/		Measures social and cultural integration with neighboring countries				Census	0.4
	Education level	People		Number of primary and secondary school students and ordinary middle school students per 10,000 people				China Statistical Yearbook (County-level)	0.3
	Medical care level	Beds		Number of beds in medical institutions per 10,000 people				China Statistical Yearbook (County-level)	0.3

Table 1

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Figure 5

Table 2

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Figure 7

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	Natural	Admin.	Market	Indust.	Transp.	Social
All border areas	0.103***	0.096***	0.058***	0.204***	0.224***	0.166***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Northeast	0.248***	0.073***	0.018*	0.014	0.133***	0.069***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.068)	(0.135)	(0.000)	(0.000)
North	0.092***	0.132***	0.199***	0.039**	0.190***	0.151***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.017)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Northwest	0.063***	0.099***	0.048***	0.232***	0.228***	0.016*
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.084)
Tibet	0.114***	0.036**	0.052***	0.017	0.040	0.072***
	(0.000)	(0.042)	(0.007)	(0.324)	(0.256)	(0.000)
Southwest	0.037***	0.173***	0.198***	0.064***	0.138***	0.108***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)