Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 439-454.doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1736-5
• Research Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
YU Wanhui1, ZHANG Lijuan1,*(), ZHANG Hongwen2, JIANG Lanqi3, ZHANG Ankang1, Pan Tao1
Received:
2019-05-30
Accepted:
2019-09-09
Online:
2020-03-25
Published:
2020-05-25
Contact:
ZHANG Lijuan
E-mail:zlj19650205@163.com
About author:
Yu Wanhui (1974-), PhD, E-mail: ywh1977@126.com
Supported by:
YU Wanhui, ZHANG Lijuan, ZHANG Hongwen, JIANG Lanqi, ZHANG Ankang, Pan Tao. Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain, Northeast China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 439-454.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks
Table 1
Farmland area and fraction of farmland area in Songnen Plain from the 1910s to the 2010s"
1910s | 1930s | 1950s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Farmland area fraction (%) | 22.78 | 35.20 | 49.19 | 55.52 | 54.48 | 58.03 | 58.60 | 60.85 |
Farmland area (104 km2) | 4.92 | 7.60 | 10.62 | 11.99 | 11.76 | 12.53 | 12.652 | 13.138 |
Table 2
Experimental design"
Test name | Type of test | Land cover data | Simulation time |
---|---|---|---|
1910s test | Control test | 1910s data | 2008-2012 |
1930s test | Comparative test | 1930s data | 2008-2012 |
1950s test | Comparative test | 1950s data | 2008-2012 |
1970s test | Comparative test | 1970s data | 2008-2012 |
1980s test | Comparative test | 1980s data | 2008-2012 |
1990s test | Comparative test | 1990s data | 2008-2012 |
2000s test | Comparative test | 2000s data | 2008-2012 |
2010s test | Comparative test | 2010s data | 2008-2012 |
Table 3
Comparison of drought indices for 1901-1930 and 1981-2010 in Songnen Plain"
Index | Average value | Range | Climatic tendency rate (10a) | Significance test (P < 0.1) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1901-1930 | K | 1.33 | 0.28-1.87 | -0.003 | no |
1901-1930 | PDSI | -0.95 | -4.29-3.93 | 0.09 | no |
1901-1930 | SPI | -0.29 | -1.46-0.98 | 0.06 | no |
1981-2010 | K | 1.30 | 0.92-1.80 | 0.08 | yes |
1981-2010 | PDSI | -0.29 | -3.27-2.35 | -0.82 | yes |
1981-2010 | SPI | 0.08 | -0.61-0.98 | -0.21 | yes |
Table 4
Comparison of meteorological factors for 1901-1930 and 1981-2010 in Songnen Plain"
Years | 1901-1930 | 1981-2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Factors | Average value | Change rate (10a) | Average value | Change rate (10a) | Variance analysis (t value) |
Average temperature (℃) | 2.8 | 0.08 | 4.1 | 0.33** | -8.84*** |
Maximum temperature (℃) | 9.1 | 0.07 | 9.9 | 0.33** | -5.55*** |
Minimum temperature (℃) | -3.4 | 0.08 | -1.6 | 0.34** | -11.44*** |
Diurnal temperature range (℃) | 12.5 | -0.01 | 11.6 | -0.01 | 9.52*** |
Precipitation (mm) | 495.1 | 12.56 | 516.6 | -15.08 | -1.05 |
Evaporation (mm) | 791.1 | 12.70 | 821.5 | 18.20** | -3.05*** |
Precipitation days (d) | 84.1 | 0.01 | 85.3 | 0.01 | -0.81 |
Water vapor pressure (hPa) | 7.5 | -0.03 | 7.8 | -0.02 | -4.15*** |
Cloud cover (%) | 46.1 | 0.01* | 44.8 | 0.01* | -5.55** |
Frost days (d) | 198.1 | -1.47 | 186.1 | -0.34*** | 8.71*** |
Table 5
Correlation coefficients between drought indices and all temperature elements in Songnen Plain"
1901-1930 | 1981-2010 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K | PDSI | SPI | K | PDSI | SPI | |
Cloud cover (%) | -0.30 | 0.34 | 0.23 | -0.03 | -0.27 | -0.32 |
Water vapor pressure (hPa) | 0.14 | -0.24 | -0.10 | -0.46* | 0.51** | 0.38* |
Precipitation (mm) | -0.92** | 0.82** | 0.68** | -0.94** | 0.77** | 0.60** |
Evaporation (mm) | 0.59** | -0.72** | -0.55** | 0.77** | -0.71** | -0.52** |
Precipitation days (d) | -0.90** | 0.83** | 0.67** | -0.84** | 0.82** | 0.59** |
Average temperature (℃) | 0.46* | -0.57** | -0.39* | 0.43* | -0.40* | -0.26 |
Minimum temperature (℃) | 0.29 | -0.40* | -0.23 | 0.29 | -0.27 | -0.16 |
Maximum temperature (℃) | 0.58** | -0.68** | -0.51** | 0.53** | -0.49** | -0.34 |
Diurnal temperature range (℃) | 0.51** | -0.49** | -0.49** | 0.45* | -0.41* | -0.32 |
Frost days (d) | -0.25 | 0.35 | 0.19 | -0.06 | 0.21 | 0.16 |
K | 1 | -0.86** | -0.75** | 1 | -0.79** | -0.59** |
PDSI | -0.86** | 1 | 0.91** | -0.79** | 1 | 0.89** |
SPI | -0.75** | 0.91** | 1 | -0.59** | 0.09** | 1 |
Table 6
OMR values for farmland and grassland (℃)"
Temperature | LUCC | Spring | Summer | Autumn | Winter |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | Grassland | 0.04 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
Average | Farmland | 0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.00 |
Maximum | Grassland | 2.78 | 1.36 | 2.24 | 2.69 |
Maximum | Farmland | 2.78 | 1.64 | 2.38 | 2.19 |
Minimum | Grassland | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.81 | -1.86 |
Minimum | Farmland | 1.76 | 1.88 | 1.73 | -1.91 |
[1] | Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C et al., 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111(D5):1-22. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290. |
[2] | Betts R A, Fallon P D, Goldewijk K K et al., 2007. Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 142(2-4):216-233. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.08.021. |
[3] |
Bonan G B , 2008. Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science, 320(5882):1444-1449. doi: 10.1126/science.1155121.
doi: 10.1126/science.1155121 pmid: 18556546 |
[4] |
Cao F Q, Dan L, Ma Z G et al., 2015. Simulative study of the cropland change on the regional climate over China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 73(1):128-141. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1111/gcb.14514 pmid: 30414347 |
[5] | Chen D F, Sun Z Y , 2001. American agriculture production and the protection of resource and environment. Ecological Economy, 9:60-65. (in Chinese) |
[6] | Duhan D, Pandey A, Gahalaut K P S et al., 2013. Spatial and temporal variability in maximum, minimum and mean air temperatures at Madhya Pradesh in central India. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 345(1):3-21. doi: 10.1016/j.crte.2012.10.016. |
[7] | Dong S Y, Yan X D, Xiong Z , 2014. Modeled impacts of land-use and land-cover change in Northeast China on climate. Climatic and Environmental Research, 19(3):351-361. doi: j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13022. (in Chinese) |
[8] | Eastman J L, Coughenour M B, Pielke R A et al., 2001. Does grazing affect regional climate? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2(3):243-235. |
[9] |
Emerson P S, William E, Magnusson B S et al., 2018. Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard. Journal of Thermal Biology, 73:50-60. doi: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2018.01.013.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2018.01.013 pmid: 29549991 |
[10] |
Feddema J J, Oleson K W, Bonan G B et al., 2005. The importance of land-cover changes in simulating future climate. Science, 310(5754):1674-1678. doi: 10.1126/science.1118160.
doi: 10.1126/science.1118160 pmid: 16339443 |
[11] |
Findell K L, Shevliakova E, Milly P C D et al., 2007. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Journal of Climate, 20(14):3621-3634. doi: 10.1175/JCLI4185.1. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1890/13-1245.1 pmid: 25154094 |
[12] |
Foley J A, DeFries R, Asner G P et al., 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science, 309(5734):570-574. doi: 10.1126/science.1111772.
doi: 10.1126/science.1111772 pmid: 16040698 |
[13] |
Füssel H M, Klein R J T , 2006. Climate change vulnerability assessments: An evolution of conceptual thinking. Climatic Change, 75(3):301-329. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3.10.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3 |
[14] | Gao X J, Zhang D F, Chen Z X et al., 2007. Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Science in China: Earth Sciences, 50(4):620-628. doi: 10.1007/s11430-007-2060-y. (in Chinese) |
[15] | Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Zhang X Z et al., 2013. Simulated effects of cropland expansion on summer climate in eastern China in the last three centuries. Advances in Meteorology, 65(2):93-100. doi: 10.1155/2013/501014. |
[16] | Hossein Tabari, Parisa Hosseinzadeh Talaee , 2011. Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 111(3/4):121-131. doi: 10.1007/s00703- 011-0125-0. |
[17] | IPCC, 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. In: Stocker T F, Qin D H, Plattner G K et al. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. |
[18] | Jiang L Q, Zhang L J, Zang S Y et al., 2015. Comparison of approaches of spatially explicit reconstruction of cropland in the late Qing Dynasty. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 70(4):625-635. |
[19] |
Kalnay E, Cai M , 2003. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature, 423(6939):528-531. doi: 10.1038/nature01675.
doi: 10.1038/nature01675 pmid: 12774119 |
[20] | Lizana X C, Avila A, Tolaba A et al., 2017. Field responses of potato to increased temperature during tuber bulking: Projection for climate change scenarios, at high-yield environments of Southern Chile. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 239:192-201. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.03.012. |
[21] |
Lee X H, Goulden M L, Hollinger D Y et al., 2011. Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes. Nature, 479(7373):384-387. doi: 10.1038/nature10588.
doi: 10.1038/nature10588 pmid: 22094699 |
[22] | Li Q P, Ding Y H, Dong W J , 2007. A numerical simulation study of impacts of historical land-use change on the regional climate in China since 1700. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 21(1):9-23. (in Chinese) |
[23] | Li X X, Zhang X Z, Zhang L J , 2017. The varied impacts of land use/cover change on summer precipitation over eastern China. Geographical Research, 36(7):1233-1244. (in Chinese) |
[24] | Liu J Y, Shao Q Q, Yan X D et al., 2016. The climatic impacts of land use and land cover change compared among countries. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7):889-903. doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1305-0. |
[25] | Mahmood R, Pielke R A, Hubbard K G et al., 2014. Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate. International Journal of Climatology, 34(4):929-953. doi: 10.1002/joc.3736. |
[26] | Mahmood R, Pielke R A S, Hubbard K G et al., 2010. Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological, 91(1):37-46. |
[27] |
Meng J , 2002. Agricultural development of Qing dynasty in Shanxi region and destruction of ecological environment. Journal of Historical Science, ( 10):37-42. (in Chinese)
pmid: 19492471 |
[28] | Mao H Q, Xiong Z, Yan X D et al., 2016. Modeled impact of cropland expansion on regional climate in India. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 35(6):1627-1634. (in Chinese) |
[29] |
Myhre G, Myhre A , 2003. Uncertainties in radiative forcing due to surface albedo changes caused by land-use changes. Journal of Climate, 16(10):1511-1524. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1511.
doi: 10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1511 |
[30] |
Peng S S, Piao S, Zeng Z Z et al., 2014. Afforestation in China cools local land surface temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(8):2915-2919. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315126111. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315126111 pmid: 24516135 |
[31] |
Pielke R A, Pitman A, Niyogi D et al., 2011. Land use/land cover changes and climate: Modeling analysis and observational evidence. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 2(6):828-850. doi: 10.1002/ wcc.144.
doi: 10.1002/wcc.144 |
[32] | Sampaio G, Nobre C A, Costa M H et al., 2007. Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(17):L17709. doi: 10.1029/ 2007GL03012. |
[33] |
Shilong P, Pierre F, Philippe C et al., 2007. Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends. Environmental Sciences, 104(39):15242-15247. doi: 10.1073/pnas. 0707213104.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0707213104 pmid: 17878298 |
[34] | Snyder P K, Delire C, Foley J A , 2004. Evaluating the influence of different vegetation biomes on the global climate. Climate Dynamics, 23(3/4):279-302. doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0430-0. |
[35] |
Song X P, Matthew C. Hansen1 S V et al., 2018. Global land change from 1982 to 2016. Nature, 560(7720):639-643. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9.
doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9 pmid: 30089903 |
[36] | Sun F H, Yuan J, Guang Y , 2008. A symmetric change of maximum and minimum temperature in the Northeast China from 1959-2002. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 28(4):532-536. (in Chinese) |
[37] | Tang G L, Ding Y H , 2007. Impacts of average air temperature derived from maximum and minimum temperatures on annual mean air temperatures series of China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 18(2):187-192. (in Chinese) |
[38] | Wen X Y, Wang S W, Zhu J H et al., 2006. An overview of China climate change over the 20th century using UK UEA/CRU high resolution grid data. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 30(5):894-903. (in Chinese) |
[39] | Xu Y, Tang G L, Zhang Q , 2017. Analysis of the variation of the air temperature over China during the global warming hiatus period. Climate Change Research, 13(6):569-577. (in Chinese) |
[40] | Yan J M , 2001. Lessons and enlightenment from land exploration and utilization in the west of the USA. Journal of Peking University (Humanities and Social Sciences), 38(2):119-126. (in Chinese) |
[41] | Yang X C, Zhang Y L, Liu L S et al., 2009. Sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China. Science in China (Series D: Earth Sciences), 39(8):1207-1215. doi: 10.1007/s11430-009-0085-0. |
[42] | Zhang D E , 2005. Historical records of environmental changes and agricultural development in Northwest China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 1(2):58-64. (in Chinese) |
[43] |
Zhang D F, Gao X J, Shi Y et al., 2010. Agricultural land use effects on climate over China as simulated by a regional climate model. Journal of Meteorological Research, 24(2):215-224.
doi: 10.1215/03616878-24-2-215 pmid: 10321356 |
[44] | Zhang L J, Jiang L Q, Zhang X Z , 2015. Spatial explicit reconstruction of farmland for Heilongjiang province of Northeast China in 1900-1910. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(5):627-637. doi: 10.1007/s11442-015- 1189-4. |
[45] | Zhang L J, Jiang L Q, Zhang X Z , 2017. Reconstruction of cropland spatial pattern and its spatiotemporal changes over the 20th century on the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 27(10):1209-1226. doi: 10.1007/s11442-017-1431-3. |
[46] | Zhang L J, Wang C Z, Li X X et al., 2018. Impacts of agricultural expansion (1910s-2010s) on the water cycle in the Songneng Plain, Northeast China. Remote Sensing, 10(7):1108. doi: 10.3390/rs10071108. |
[47] | Zhang L Z, Pan T, Zhang H W et al., 2017. The effects of forest area changes on extreme temperature indexes between the 1900s and 2010s in Heilongjiang Province, China. Remote Sensing, 9(12):1280. doi: 10.3390/ rs9121280. |
[48] | Zhang X Z, Liu J Y, Xiong Z et al., 2015. Simulated effects of agricultural development on surface air temperature over central and eastern China in the late 20th century. Acta Geographica Sinica, 70(9):1423-1433. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201509006. (in Chinese) |
[49] | Zhang X Z, Wang W C, Fang X Q et al., 2012. Agriculture development-induced surface albedo changes and climatic implications across northeastern China. Chinese Geographical Science, 22(3):264-277. doi: 10.1007/ s11769-012-0535-z. |
[50] | Zhao L Y, Ding R, Moore J C , 2016. The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050 . Annals of Glaciology, 57(71):223-231. doi: 10.3189/2016AoG71A049. |
[1] | Yuan ZHANG, Shuying ZANG, Li SUN, Binghe YAN, Tianpeng YANG, Wenjia YAN, E Michael MEADOWS, Cuizhen WANG, Jiaguo QI. Characterizing the changing environment of cropland in the Songnen Plain, Northeast China, from 1990 to 2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 658-674. |
[2] | Zhiyong WANG, Lijuan LI. Determination of land salinization causes via land cover and hydrological process change detection in a typical part of Songnen Plain [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(8): 1099-1112. |
[3] | Lanqi JIANG, Lijuan ZHANG, Shuying *ZANG, Xuezhen ZHANG. Accuracy assessment of approaches to spatially explicit reconstruction of historical cropland in Songnen Plain, Northeast China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(2): 219-229. |
[4] | WANG Zongming, ZHANG Bai, ZHANG Shuqing, SONG Kaishan, DUAN Hongtao. Estimates of loss in ecosystem service values of Songnen plain from 1980 to 2000 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2005, 15(1): 80-86. |
[5] | DENG Wei, HE Yan, SONG Xin-shan, YAN Bai-xing. Hydrochemical characteristics of salt marsh wetlands in western Songnen Plain [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2001, 11(2): 217-223. |
|