Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain, Northeast China

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1736-5

Abstract

Abstract:

The effects of human activities on climate change are a significant area of research in the field of global environmental change. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has a greater effect on climate than greenhouse gases, and the effect of farmland expansion on regional drought is particularly important. From the 1910s to the 2010s, cultivated land in Songnen Plain increased by 2.67 times, the area of cultivated land increased from 4.92×10 ⁴km ² to 13.14×10 ⁴km ², and its percentage of all land increased from 25% to 70%. This provides an opportunity to study the effects of the conversion of natural grassland to farmland on climate. In this study, the drought indices in Songnen Plain were evaluated from the 1910s to the 2010s, and the effect of farmland expansion on drought was investigated using statistical methods and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model based on UK’s Climatic Research Unit data. The resulting dryness index, Palmer drought severity index, and standardized precipitation index values indicated a significant drying trend in the study area from 1981 to 2010. This trend can be attributed to increases in maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range, which increased the degree of drought. Based on statistical analysis and simulation, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sensible heat flux increased during the growing season in Songnen Plain over the past 100 years, while the minimum temperature and latent heat flux decreased. The findings indicate that farmland expansion caused a drying trend in Songnen Plain during the study period.

Key words: drought effect, farmland expansion, centennial-scale changes, Songnen Plain

YU Wanhui, ZHANG Lijuan, ZHANG Hongwen, JIANG Lanqi, ZHANG Ankang, Pan Tao. Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain, Northeast China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 439-454.

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	1910s	1930s	1950s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s
Farmland area fraction (%)	22.78	35.20	49.19	55.52	54.48	58.03	58.60	60.85
Farmland area (10⁴ km²)	4.92	7.60	10.62	11.99	11.76	12.53	12.652	13.138

Test name	Type of test	Land cover data	Simulation time
1910s test	Control test	1910s data	2008-2012
1930s test	Comparative test	1930s data	2008-2012
1950s test	Comparative test	1950s data	2008-2012
1970s test	Comparative test	1970s data	2008-2012
1980s test	Comparative test	1980s data	2008-2012
1990s test	Comparative test	1990s data	2008-2012
2000s test	Comparative test	2000s data	2008-2012
2010s test	Comparative test	2010s data	2008-2012

	Index	Average value	Range	Climatic tendency rate (10a)	Significance test (P < 0.1)
1901-1930	K	1.33	0.28-1.87	-0.003	no
1901-1930	PDSI	-0.95	-4.29-3.93	0.09	no
1901-1930	SPI	-0.29	-1.46-0.98	0.06	no
1981-2010	K	1.30	0.92-1.80	0.08	yes
1981-2010	PDSI	-0.29	-3.27-2.35	-0.82	yes
1981-2010	SPI	0.08	-0.61-0.98	-0.21	yes

Years	1901-1930		1981-2010
Factors	Average value	Change rate (10a)	Average value	Change rate (10a)	Variance analysis (t value)
Average temperature (℃)	2.8	0.08	4.1	0.33^**	-8.84^***
Maximum temperature (℃)	9.1	0.07	9.9	0.33^**	-5.55^***
Minimum temperature (℃)	-3.4	0.08	-1.6	0.34^**	-11.44^***
Diurnal temperature range (℃)	12.5	-0.01	11.6	-0.01	9.52^***
Precipitation (mm)	495.1	12.56	516.6	-15.08	-1.05
Evaporation (mm)	791.1	12.70	821.5	18.20^**	-3.05^***
Precipitation days (d)	84.1	0.01	85.3	0.01	-0.81
Water vapor pressure (hPa)	7.5	-0.03	7.8	-0.02	-4.15^***
Cloud cover (%)	46.1	0.01*	44.8	0.01^*	-5.55^**
Frost days (d)	198.1	-1.47	186.1	-0.34^***	8.71^***

	1901-1930			1981-2010
	K	PDSI	SPI	K	PDSI	SPI
Cloud cover (%)	-0.30	0.34	0.23	-0.03	-0.27	-0.32
Water vapor pressure (hPa)	0.14	-0.24	-0.10	-0.46^*	0.51^**	0.38^*
Precipitation (mm)	-0.92^**	0.82^**	0.68^**	-0.94^**	0.77^**	0.60^**
Evaporation (mm)	0.59^**	-0.72^**	-0.55^**	0.77^**	-0.71^**	-0.52^**
Precipitation days (d)	-0.90^**	0.83^**	0.67^**	-0.84^**	0.82^**	0.59^**
Average temperature (℃)	0.46^*	-0.57^**	-0.39^*	0.43^*	-0.40^*	-0.26
Minimum temperature (℃)	0.29	-0.40^*	-0.23	0.29	-0.27	-0.16
Maximum temperature (℃)	0.58^**	-0.68^**	-0.51^**	0.53^**	-0.49^**	-0.34
Diurnal temperature range (℃)	0.51^**	-0.49^**	-0.49^**	0.45^*	-0.41^*	-0.32
Frost days (d)	-0.25	0.35	0.19	-0.06	0.21	0.16
K	1	-0.86^**	-0.75^**	1	-0.79^**	-0.59^**
PDSI	-0.86^**	1	0.91^**	-0.79^**	1	0.89^**
SPI	-0.75^**	0.91^**	1	-0.59^**	0.09^**	1