Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 164-176.doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1721-z
• Special Issue: Global and Regional Land Surface Characteristics and Socio-economic Scenarios • Previous Articles
BA Wulong1,2, DU Pengfei1,*(), LIU Tie2, BAO Anming2, CHEN Xi2, LIU Jiao3, QIN Chengxin1
Received:
2018-07-02
Accepted:
2018-12-27
Online:
2020-01-25
Published:
2020-03-25
Contact:
DU Pengfei
E-mail:dupf@tsinghua.edu.cn
Supported by:
BA Wulong, DU Pengfei, LIU Tie, BAO Anming, CHEN Xi, LIU Jiao, QIN Chengxin. Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin, China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 164-176.
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Table 1
Climate change (2040-2044) and agricultural management measure scenarios used in this study"
Climate scenarios | Temperature change (℃) | Precipitation change (%) | Streamflow change (%) |
---|---|---|---|
A | +0.5 | -10 | -10 |
B | +0.7 | +10 | +10 |
C | +1.3 | +20 | -10 |
D | +1.9 | +30 | -20 |
Management scenarios | Measures | ||
E | Agricultural irrigation efficiency increased from 58 % to 75% | ||
F | Amount of fertilizer application reduced by 20% |
Table 2
Parameters used for calibration of the SWAT model (2012-2013)"
Parameter | Definition | Ranges | Fitted value |
---|---|---|---|
LAT_TTIME | Lateral flow travel time | 0.00-180.00 | 62.00 |
NPERCO | Nitrogen percolation coefficient | 0.00-1.00 | 0.21 |
ALPHA_BF | Baseflow alpha factor | 0.00-1.00 | 0.25 |
GW_REVAP | Groundwater evaporation coefficient | 0.02-0.20 | 0.02 |
GW_DELAY | Groundwater delay | 0.00-500.00 | 14.00 |
ESCO | Soil evaporation compensation factor | 0.00-1.00 | 0.19 |
BIOMIX | Biological mixing efficiency | 0.00-1.00 | 0.26 |
USLE_P | USLE equation support practice | 0.00-1.00 | 0.26 |
BC1 | Rate constant for biological oxidation of NH3 | 0.10-1.00 | 0.55 |
BC2 | Rate constant for biological oxidation NO2 to NO3 | 0.20-2.00 | 1.10 |
Table 3
Calibration and validation results of model parameters"
Variable | Period | R2 | NSE | PBIAS (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Streamflow | Calibration (2012/01-2013/12) | 0.84 | 0.80 | -28.57 |
Validation (2014/01-2014/12) | 0.86 | 0.83 | 7.46 | |
TN (t) | Calibration (2012/01-2013/12) | 0.85 | 0.79 | -27.32 |
Validation (2014/01-2014/12) | 0.86 | 0.82 | 10.68 | |
TP (t) | Calibration (2012/01-2013/12) | 0.79 | 0.75 | -35.34 |
Validation (2014/01-2014/12) | 0.81 | 0.73 | 12.35 |
Table 4
Average annual non-point source (NPS) pollutant emissions and streamflow discharge for each drainage canal (2010-2014)"
Sub-basin ID | Receiving water | Drainage canal | TN (t) | TP (t) | Discharge (104 m3/s) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 | Big Lake District | Kaidu River | 2345.36 | 9.50 | 225896.46 |
16 | Halayin, Dongdahan | 4.16 | 0.24 | 723.98 | |
19 | Benbutu, 25th Regiment | 9.52 | 0.60 | 1539.51 | |
22 | Bohu Town, Wulan Town | 10.29 | 0.64 | 1485.38 | |
7 | Bortu, 26th Regiment West | 6.26 | 0.66 | 1545.33 | |
2 | Yellow Water District | Huangshui River | 499.58 | 2.70 | 12633.36 |
8 | 22nd Regiment North and South | 36.69 | 1.21 | 2624.37 | |
13 | Shengli, Beigan | 26.85 | 0.99 | 2331.01 | |
15 | Dongfeng | 24.11 | 0.81 | 1685.94 | |
3 | 6th and 4th Companies of the 24th Regiment | 16.6 | 0.01 | 101.94 | |
6 | Qingshui River West and East | 22.64 | 1.85 | 1516.93 | |
27 | Small Lake District | Tuanjie | 61.52 | 3.28 | 10091.55 |
29 | Jiefang, 40 Lichengzi | 22.58 | 1.03 | 2461.36 | |
31 | 27th Regiment, Yongning Town | 23.03 | 0.96 | 2091.49 | |
33 | Yongning Town East, Chaganur | 9.91 | 0.51 | 1268.55 | |
Total | 3119.10 | 24.99 | 267997.16 |
Table 5
Changes of NPS pollution in the Kaidu River and drainage canals under different scenarios"
Scenarios | Water source | Precipitation (mm) | Discharge (m3/s) | TN (t) | TP (t) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference period | Drainage | 79.51 | 4.21×108 | 773.73 | 15.47 |
River | 246.47 | 2.26×109 | 2345.36 | 9.50 | |
Scenario A | Drainage | 71.56 | 4.03×108 | 704.39 | 13.60 |
River | 221.82 | 1.93×109 | 2233.16 | 9.12 | |
Scenario B | Drainage | 87.46 | 4.37×108 | 845.33 | 21.88 |
River | 271.12 | 2.58×109 | 2485.97 | 15.21 | |
Scenario C | Drainage | 95.41 | 4.09×108 | 847.70 | 20.98 |
River | 295.76 | 1.94×109 | 2331.32 | 13.70 | |
Scenario D | Drainage | 103.36 | 3.84×108 | 854.98 | 20.20 |
River | 320.41 | 1.61×109 | 2222.45 | 12.87 | |
Scenario E | Drainage | 79.51 | 4.41×108 | 773.73 | 15.47 |
River | 246.47 | 2.26×109 | 2345.36 | 9.50 | |
Scenario F | Drainage | 79.51 | 4.21×108 | 661.56 | 12.99 |
River | 246.47 | 2.26×109 | 2312.59 | 8.93 |
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