Correspondence between the large volcanic eruptions and ENSO events over AD 1525–2000

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1717-8

Abstract

Abstract: ENSO is an interannual mode which may be affected by external forcing, such as volcanic eruptions. Based on the reconstructed volcanic eruptions chronology and ENSO sequences, both 195 large volcanic eruptions (VEI≥4) and 398 ENSO (El Ni?o and La Ni?a) events were extracted from 1525 to 2000. An analysis of the correspondence between the large volcanic eruptions and ENSO events was performed by matching the large volcanic eruptions with the types and magnitudes of ENSO events present in the 0–2 years after the eruptions. The results show the following: (1) The percentages of ENSO events within the 3 years after the large eruptions had increased to 68.3% from 31.7% compared with those with no-eruptions in the previous 0–2 years. In addition, the ratio of El Ni?o to La Ni?a events turned from 2:3 to 1:1, and more El Ni?o events occurred in the 0 year after eruptions in the low-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics but more La Ni?a events occurred in the 0 year after in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. (2) After the eruptions, the weak (W) El Ni?o events had increased by 8 percentage points and the very strong (VS) El Ni?o events had decreased by 10 percentage points; conversely, there was a decrease by 15 percentage points of the weak La Ni?a events and an increase by 11.4 percentage points of the very strong La Ni?a events. Specifically, the percentages of strong La Ni?a events increased to a peak at 1 (+1) year after the eruptions. (3) The percentage of eruptions followed by single-year ENSO was the greatest. The percentage of ENSO events that occurred in the consecutive 2 years following an eruption was approximately equal to the percentage of events that occurred consecutively 3 years following an eruption, and both sets of ENSO magnitudes showed a decreasing trend.

Key words: ENSO, large volcanic eruptions (VEI≥4), regional volcanoes, relationship

FANG Xiuqi, ZHENG Xue, ZHANG Xing. Correspondence between the large volcanic eruptions and ENSO events over AD 1525–2000[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 103-118.

Figures/Tables 8

Figure 1

Table 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

References 70

1	Adams J B, Mann M E, Ammann C M , 2003. Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing . Nature, 426(6964):274-278.
2	Briffa K R, Jones P D, Schweingruber F H et al., 1998. Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature, 393(6684):450-455.
3	Bjerknes J , 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Monthly Weather Review, 97(3):163-172.
4	Cheng D, Cui Y, Su F et al., 2018. The characteristics of the Mocoa compound disaster event, Colombia. Landslides, 15(6):1223-1232.
5	Clement A C, Seager R, Cane M A et al., 1996. An ocean dynamical thermostat. Journal of Climate, 9(9):2190-2196.
6	Collins M, An S I, Cai W et al., 2010. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature Geoscience, 3(6):391-397.
7	Damodaran V, Allan R, Ogilvie A E J , et al., 2018. The 1780s: Global climate anomalies, floods, droughts, and famines. The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History. London: Palgrave Macmillan Press.
8	Davis M , 2001. Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World. London: Verso Press.
9	D’Arrigo R, Wilson R, Tudhope A , 2009. The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical temperatures during the past four centuries. Nature Geoscience, 2(1):51-56.
10	Deng X Z, Huang J K, Qiao F B et al., 2010. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(1):3-16.
11	Deser C, Alexander M A, Xie S P et al., 2010. Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. Annual Review of Marine Science, 2(1):115-143.
12	Dilley M, Heyman B N , 1995. ENSO and disaster: Droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events. Disasters, 19(3):181-193.
13	Ding Y, Carton J A, Chepurin G A et al., 2014. Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119(9):5622-5637.
14	Dutton E G, Christy J R , 1992. Solar radiative forcing at selected locations and evidence for global lower tropospheric cooling following the eruptions of El Chichón and Pinatubo. Geophysical Research Letters, 19(23):2313-2316.
15	Emile-Geay J, Seager R, Cane M A et al., 2008. Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium. Journal of Climate, 21(13):3134-3148.
16	Gergis J L, Fowler A M , 2009. A history of ENSO events since AD 1525: Implications for future climate change. Climatic Change, 92(3/4):343-387.
17	Handler P , 1984. Possible association of stratospheric aerosols and El Niño type events. Geophysical Research Letters, 11(11):1121-1124.
18	Handler P , 1986. Possible association between the climatic effects of stratospheric aerosols and sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Journal of Climatology, 6(1):31-41.
19	Hao Z, Wang H, Zheng J , 2014. Spatial and temporal distribution of large volcanic eruptions from 1750 to 2010. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 24(6):1060-1068.
20	Hao Z X, Zheng J Y, Wu G F et al., 2010. 1876-1878 severe drought in North China: Facts, impacts and climatic background. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(26):3001-3007.
21	Harshvardhan M R , 1979. Perturbation of the zonal radiation balance by a stratospheric aerosol layer. Journal of the Atmosphere Sciences, 36(7):1274-1285.
22	Hegerl G C, Crowley T J, Baum S K et al., 2003. Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(5):1242. doi: 10.1029/2002GL016635.
23	IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
24	Khodri M, Izumo T, Vialard J et al., 2017. Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa. Nature Communications, 8(1):778. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6.
25	King A D, van Oldenborgh G J, Karoly D J , 2016. Climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Indonesian heat and drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12):S113-S117.
26	Lamb, H H , 1970. Volcanic dust in the atmosphere; with a chronology and assessment of its meteorological significance. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 266(1178):425-533.
27	Lehner F, Schurer A P, Hegerl G C et al., 2016. The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6):2851-2858.
28	Li J, Xie S P, Cook E R et al., 2013. El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries. Nature Climate Change, 3(9):822-826.
29	Lim H G, Yeh S W, Kug J S et al., 2016. Threshold of the volcanic forcing that leads the El Niño-like warming in the last millennium: results from the ERIK simulation. Climate Dynamics, 46(11/12):3725-3736.
30	Liu F, Li J, Wang B et al., 2018a. Divergent El Niño responses to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes over the past millennium. Climate Dynamics, 50(9/10):3799-3812.
31	Liu F, Xing C, Sun L et al., 2018b. How do tropical, Northern Hemispheric, and Southern Hemispheric volcanic eruptions affect ENSO under different initial ocean conditions? Geophysical Research Letters, 45(23): 13,041-13,049.
32	Maher N, McGregor S, England M H et al., 2015. Effects of volcanism on tropical variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(14):6024-6033.
33	Mann M E, Cane M A, Zebiak S E et al., 2005. Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years. Journal of Climate, 18(3):447-456.
34	Mass C, Schneider S H , 1977. Statistical evidence on the influence of sunspots and volcanic dust on long-term temperature records. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 34(12):1995-2004.
35	McGraw M C, Barnes E A, Deser C , 2016. Reconciling the observed and modeled Southern Hemisphere circulation response to volcanic eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(13):7259-7266.
36	McGregor S, Timmermann A , 2011. The effect of explosive tropical volcanism on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 24(8):2178-2191.
37	McGregor S, Timmermann A, Timm O , 2010. A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650. Climate of the Past, 6(1):1-17.
38	Meque A, Abiodun B J , 2015. Simulating the link between ENSO and summer drought in Southern Africa using regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, 44(7/8):1881-1900.
39	Mishra V, Tiwari A D, Aadhar S et al., 2019. Drought and famine in India, 1870-2016. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(4):2075-2083.
40	Newhall C G, Self S , 1982. The volcanic explosivity index (VEI): An estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 87(C2):1231-1238.
41	Niemeier U, Timmreck C, Graf H F et al., 2009. Initial fate of fine ash and sulfur from large volcanic eruptions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9(22):9043-9057.
42	Ohba M, Shiogama H, Yokohata T et al., 2013. Impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions on ENSO simulated in a coupled GCM. Journal of Climate, 26(14):5169-5182.
43	Oliver R C , 1976. On the response of hemispheric mean temperature to stratospheric dust: An empirical approach. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 15(9):933-950.
44	Oman L, Robock A, Stenchikov G et al., 2005. Climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D13):D13103. doi: 10.1029/2004JD005487.
45	Pausata F S R, Karamperidou C, Caballero R et al., 2016. ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16):8694-8702.
46	Predybaylo E, Stenchikov G L, Wittenberg A T et al., 2017a. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122(2):925-947.
47	Rampino M R, Self S , 1984. Sulphur-rich volcanic eruptions and stratospheric aerosols. Nature, 310(5979):677-679.
48	Robock A , 2000. Volcanic eruptions and climate. Reviews of Geophysics, 38(2):191-219.
49	Robock A, Mao J , 1995. The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. Journal of Climate, 8(5):1086-1103.
50	Santer B D, Bonfils C, Painter J F et al., 2014. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geoscience, 7(3):185-189.
51	Self S, Rampino M R , 1988. The relationship between volcanic eruptions and climate change: Still a conundrum? Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 69(6):74-86.
52	Self S, Rampino M R, Zhao J et al., 1997. Volcanic aerosol perturbations and strong El Niño events: No general correlation. Geophysical Research Letters, 24(10):1247-1250.
53	Sheng Z, Xie S Q, Pan C Y , 2008. Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics Course. 4th ed. Beijing: Higher Education Press. (in Chinese)
54	Siebert L, Simkin T, Kimberly P , 2011. Volcanoes of the World. 3rd ed. London: University of California Press.
55	Sigl M, Winstrup M, McConnell J R et al., 2015. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature, 523(7562):543-549.
56	Stenchikov G, Delworth T L, Ramaswamy V et al., 2009. Volcanic signals in oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(D16):D16014. doi: 10.1029/2008JD011673.
57	Stenchikov G, Hamilton K, Robock A et al., 2004. Arctic oscillation response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the SKYHI general circulation model with a realistic quasi-biennial oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 109(D3):D03112. doi: 10.1029/2003JD003699.
58	Stevenson S, Otto-Bliesner B, Fasullo J et al., 2016. “El Niño like” hydroclimate responses to last millennium volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, 29(8):2907-2921.
59	Stommel H, Stommel E , 2010. The year without a summer. Nature Geoscience, 77(9):2077-2094.
60	Taylor B L, Gal‐Chen T, Schneider S H , 1980. Volcanic eruptions and long-term temperature records: An empirical search for cause and effect. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 106(447):175-199.
61	Thompson D W J, Wallace J M, Jones P D et al., 2009. Identifying signatures of natural climate variability in time series of global-mean surface temperature: Methodology and insights. Journal of Climate, 22:6120-6141.
62	Timmreck C , 2012. Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(6):545-564.
63	Trenberth K E, Jones P D, Ambenje P, , et al., 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 235-336.
64	Vicente-Serrano S M, Aguilar E, Martínez R et al., 2017. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador. Climate Dynamics, 48(1/2):405-427.
65	Wang C, Deser C, Yu J Y et al., 2012. El Niño and southern oscillation (ENSO): A review. Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific, 8:3-19.
66	Wang T, Guo D, Gao Y et al., 2018. Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, 51(7/8):2433-2453.
67	Yamamoto R, Iwashima T, Hoshiai M , 1975. Change of the surface air temperature averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and large volcanic eruptions during the year 1951-1972. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 53(6):482-486.
68	Zebiak S E, Orlove B, Muñoz Á G et al., 2015. Investigating El Niño-Southern Oscillation and society relationships. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 6(1):17-34.
69	Zhang D, Blender R, Fraedrich K , 2013. Volcanoes and ENSO in millennium simulations: Global impacts and regional reconstructions in East Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111(3/4):437-454.
70	Zhang F G, Zhang X G , 1994. The relation between large volcanic eruption in the world and the drought/flood in summer in China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 3:40-46.

Volcanic eruption	El Niño	La Niña	ENSO
No-eruption (in the prior 0-2 years)	51 (40.5%)	75 (59.5%)	126 (31.7%)
Eruptions (in the prior 0-2 years)	137 (50.4%)	135 (49.6%)	272 (68.3%)
Total	188 (47.2%)	210 (52.8%)	398 (100%)
No-eruptions%: Eruptions%	27.1: 72.9	35.7: 64.3	31.7: 68.3

[1]	HOU Bingfei, JIANG Chao, SUN Osbert Jianxin. Differential changes in precipitation and runoff discharge during 1958-2017 in the headwater region of Yellow River of China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(9): 1401-1418.
[2]	WU Li, SUN Xiaoling, SUN Wei, ZHU Cheng, ZHU Tongxin, LU Shuguang, ZHOU Hui, GUO Qingchun, GUAN Houchun, XIE Wei, KE Rui, LIN Guiping. Evolution of Neolithic site distribution (9.0-4.0 ka BP) in Anhui, East China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(9): 1451-1466.
[3]	CHENG Mingyang, LI Linna, ZHOU Yang. Exploring the urban-rural development differences and influencing factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1603-1616.
[4]	YANG Yu, LI Xiaoyun, DONG Wen, POON P H Jessie, HONG Hui, HE Ze, LIU Yi. Assessing China’s human-environment relationship [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(8): 1261-1282.
[5]	Wenhao WU, Zongfeng CHEN, Yuheng LI, Yongsheng WANG, Jiayu YAN, Chuanyao SONG. Land engineering and its role for sustainable agriculture in the agro-pastoral ecotone: A case study of Yulin, Shaanxi Province, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 818-830.
[6]	Xuegang CUI, Chuanglin FANG, Zhenbo WANG, Chao BAO. Spatial relationship of high-speed transportation construction and land-use efficiency and its mechanism: Case study of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(4): 549-562.
[7]	GAO Chundong, GUO Qiquan, JIANG Dong, WANG Zhenbo, FANG Chuanglin, HAO Mengmeng. Theoretical basis and technical methods of cyberspace geography [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(12): 1949-1964.
[8]	Zhouying SONG, Shuyun CHE, Yu* YANG. The trade network of the Belt and Road Initiative and its topological relationship to the global trade network [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(9): 1249-1262.
[9]	Xi CHEN, Shanshan WANG, Zengyun HU, Qiming ZHOU, Qi HU. Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal precipitation and their relationships with ENSO in Central Asia during 1901-2013 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(9): 1341-1368.
[10]	Mofei CHEN, Jinyun DENG, Shaoying FAN, Yitian LI. Applying energy theory to understand the relationship between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(8): 1059-1071.
[11]	Xue DAI, Guishan YANG, Rongrong WAN, Yanyan LI. The effect of the Changjiang River on water regimes of its tributary Lake East Dongting [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(8): 1072-1084.
[12]	Yuanzhi GUO, Yang ZHOU, Zhi CAO. Geographical patterns and anti-poverty targeting post-2020 in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(12): 1810-1824.
[13]	Dazhuan GE, Hualou LONG, Yingnan ZHANG, Shuangshuang TU. Analysis of the coupled relationship between grain yields and agricultural labor changes in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(1): 93-108.
[14]	Xiaoyun LI, Yu YANG, Yi LIU. Research progress in man-land relationship evolution and its resource-environment base in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(8): 899-924.
[15]	Minghong TAN. Exploring the relationship between vegetation and dust-storm intensity (DSI) in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(4): 387-396.