Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 85-102.doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1716-9
• Special Issue: Global and Regional Land Surface Characteristics and Socio-economic Scenarios • Previous Articles Next Articles
CHEN Qihui1, CHEN Hua1,*(), ZHANG Jun2, HOU Yukun1, SHEN Mingxi1, CHEN Jie1, XU Chongyu1,3
Received:
2018-12-20
Accepted:
2019-03-28
Online:
2020-01-25
Published:
2020-03-25
Contact:
CHEN Hua
E-mail:chua@whu.edu.cn
About author:
Chen Qihui (1995–), specialized in runoff response to land use change and climate change.E-mail: Supported by:
CHEN Qihui, CHEN Hua, ZHANG Jun, HOU Yukun, SHEN Mingxi, CHEN Jie, XU Chongyu. Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 85-102.
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Table 1
Description of research data used in this research"
Data type | Description | Data source |
---|---|---|
DEM data | Spatial resolution of 200 m | Geospatial Data Cloud |
Soil data | Spatial resolution of 1000 m | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) |
Land use data | In year 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2015 with spatial resolution of 1000 m | National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure |
Climate data | Daily data from 31 weather stations, including precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, humidity and evaporation (1960-2016) | China Meteorological Data Service Center (CMDC) |
Hydrological data | Monthly runoff data from 7 hydrological stations (1960-2016) | Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission |
Table 3
Sixteen simulation scenarios combining historical measured climate and land use data in different periods"
Scenarios | Climate data | Land use data | Scenarios | Climate data | Land use data |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | 1977-1986 | LU1980 | S9 | 1997-2006 | LU1980 |
S2 | 1977-1986 | LU1990 | S10 | 1997-2006 | LU1990 |
S3 | 1977-1986 | LU2000 | S11 | 1997-2006 | LU2000 |
S4 | 1977-1986 | LU2010 | S12 | 1997-2006 | LU2010 |
S5 | 1987-1996 | LU1980 | S13 | 2007-2016 | LU1980 |
S6 | 1987-1996 | LU1990 | S14 | 2007-2016 | LU1990 |
S7 | 1987-1996 | LU2000 | S15 | 2007-2016 | LU2000 |
S8 | 1987-1996 | LU2010 | S16 | 2007-2016 | LU2010 |
Table 4
Annual average precipitation in different periods calculated by Thiessen polygon method and the trend analysis results of historical precipitation (1960-2016) in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin"
Periods | Annual average precipitation (mm) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reg I | Reg II | Reg III | Reg IV | Basin | |
P1 (1977-1986) | 321.5 | 682.9 | 556.6 | 875.3 | 604.9 |
P2 (1987-1996) | 310.5 | 704.9 | 600.7 | 862.7 | 610.5 |
P3 (1997-2006) | 345.3 | 711.0 | 622.3 | 930.7 | 645.7 |
P4 (2007-2016) | 392.2 | 701.0 | 572.9 | 843.6 | 624.7 |
Historical (1960-2016) | 338.7 | 691.4 | 583.6 | 873.6 | 616.2 |
Z values in M-K test | 2.07 | 1.63 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 2.07 |
Table 5
Annual average maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) in different periods and the trend analysis results (Z values) in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin"
Temperature (℃) | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | 1960-2016 | Z values | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reg I | Tmax | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 |
Tmin | -10.7 | -10.3 | -9.6 | -8.6 | -10.0 | 5.8 | |
Reg II | Tmax | 13.5 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 4.6 |
Tmin | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 7.6 | |
Reg III | Tmax | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.4 | 17.1 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
Tmin | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 8.0 | |
Reg IV | Tmax | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.9 | 21.4 | 20.6 | 3.5 |
Tmin | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 6.8 | |
Basin | Tmax | 12.9 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 4.7 |
Tmin | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.0 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 7.4 |
Table 7
Statistical results of three characteristic values of runoff (Runoff coefficient r, Extreme flood frequency D and flood season discharge ratio f) at Pingshan hydrological station during the period of 1960-2016"
Statistics (1960-2016) | Characteristic variables | ||
---|---|---|---|
Runoff coefficient (r) | Extreme flood frequency D (days) | Flood season discharge ratio f (%) | |
Mean | 0.502 | 41.3 | 62.1 |
Z values in M-K test | -1.93 | 0.647 | -1.74 |
Table 8
Annual mean distribution and the change rates of various land use in adjacent periods during the past 35 years (1980-2015) in the Jinsha River Basin"
Land use | Mean annual area (103 km2) | Area ratio (%) | Change rates (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1980-1990 | 1990-2000 | 2000-2010 | 2010-2015 | |||
Grassland | 234.3 | 52.53 | 0.17 | 0.10 | -0.09 | -0.10 |
Forest land | 132.4 | 29.68 | -0.24 | -0.26 | 0.12 | -0.09 |
Bare land | 41.9 | 9.40 | -0.10 | 0.22 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
Farmland | 26.4 | 5.92 | -0.26 | -0.30 | -1.94 | -0.89 |
Wetland | 6.9 | 1.55 | 0.38 | -0.60 | 0.55 | -0.59 |
Water body | 3.5 | 0.78 | -0.61 | 3.08 | 0.59 | 9.38 |
Building land | 0.6 | 0.14 | 5.95 | 8.99 | 140.46 | 36.01 |
Table 9
Calibration and verification results in the seven hydrological stations in the Jinsha River Basin in SWAT model, with the evaluation indicators being Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (NS) and the Percent Bias (PBIAS)"
Hydrological stations | River system | Calibration period (1970-1999) | Verification period (2000-2016) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NS | PBIAS (%) | NS | PBIAS (%) | ||
Zhimenda | Tongtian River | 0.84 | 7.4 | 0.80 | 0.8 |
Yajiang | Yalong River | 0.81 | 2.0 | 0.72 | 13.4 |
Luning | Yalong River | 0.86 | 4.8 | 0.77 | 15.9 |
Batang | Jinsha River | 0.87 | -0.2 | 0.89 | -1.0 |
Shigu | Jinsha River | 0.89 | 14.4 | 0.91 | 6.7 |
Huatan | Jinsha River | 0.93 | -13.7 | 0.90 | -5.8 |
Pingshan | Jinsha River | 0.93 | -6.5 | 0.90 | -5.4 |
Absolute average mean | 0.88 | 7.0 | 0.84 | 7.0 |
Table 1
0 Typical GCMs selected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the outputs of each typical GCM respectively representing the typical climate scenarios of cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry and warm-wet in 2017-2050"
Typical GCMs | Cold-dry | Cold-wet | Warm-dry | Warm-wet |
---|---|---|---|---|
RCP4.5 | MRI-CGCM3 | CCSM4 | MPI-ESM-LR | CCSM4 |
RCP8.5 | MRI-CGCM3 | CCSM4 | IPSL-CM5A-MR | MIROC-ESM |
Table 1
1 Variation coefficient (Cv) of extreme precipitation frequency N under different typical climate and emission scenarios during 2017-2050, together with that of historical period (1960-2016)"
Extreme precipitation frequency N | Historical period | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCSM4 | MPI | MRI | CCSM4 | IPSL | MIROC | MRI | ||
Variation coefficient Cv | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.46 |
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