Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 3-17.doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1711-1

• Special Issue: Global and Regional Land Surface Characteristics and Socio-economic Scenarios •     Next Articles

Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change

FAN Zemeng1,2,3, BAI Ruyu1,2, YUE Tianxiang1,2,3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
    3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2018-06-15 Accepted:2019-02-28 Online:2020-01-25 Published:2020-03-25
  • About author:Fan Zemeng, PhD, specialized in ecological modelling and system simulation. E-mail: fanzm@lreis.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Key R&D Program of China, No(2017YFA0603702);National Key R&D Program of China, No(2018YFC0507200);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No(41421001);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No(41271406);Innovation Project of LREIS, No.(O88RA600YA)

Abstract:

The method for surface modelling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in Eurasia. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data observed from 2127 weather stations in Eurasia during 1981-2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of Eurasia in 2010, the land cover scenarios of Eurasia were respectively simulated. The results show that most land cover types would generally have similar changing trends in the future, but with some difference in different periods under the three scenarios of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85. Deciduous needleleaf forest, mixed forest, shrub land, wetlands and snow and ice would generally decrease in Eurasia during 2010-2100. Snow and ice would have the fastest decreasing rate that would decrease by 37.42% on average. Shrub land would have the slowest decreasing rate that would decrease by 5.65% on average. Water bodies would have the fastest increasing rate that would increase by 28.78% on average. Barren or sparsely vegetated land would have the slowest increasing rate that would increase by 0.76%. Moreover, the simulated results show that climate change would directly impact on land cover change in Eurasia.

Key words: SMLCS, climate change, land cover, scenarios, Eurasia