Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1663-5

Abstract

Abstract:

Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics (SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016-2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.

Key words: intensive urban land use, land supply and demand, simulation model, system dynamic model, Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration

XIONG Ying, CHEN Yun, PENG Fen, LI Jingzhi, YAN Xiaojing. Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(8): 1346-1362.

Figures/Tables 15

Table 1

Main indexes of land supply and demand system model"

Variable name	Variable type	Variable explanation
Scale of construction land	Status variable Z₁	Total construction land
Scale of industrial land	Status variable Z₂	Total industrial land
Scale of residential land	Status variable Z₃	Total residential land
Theoretical demand of construction land	Auxiliary variable F₁	Theoretical demand of construction land with the urban development
Theoretical demand of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₂	Theoretical demand of industrial land with the urban development
Theoretical demand of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₃	Theoretical demand of residential land with the urban development
Supply of construction land	Auxiliary variableF₄	Annual increase of construction land
Supply of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₅	Annual increase of industrial land
Supply of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₆	Annual increase of residential land
Basic demand of construction land	Auxiliary variable F₇	Theoretical demand of construction land minus the existing scale
Basic demand of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₈	Theoretical demand of industrial land minus the existing scale
Basic demand of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₉	Theoretical demand of residential land minus the existing scale
Effective demand of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₁₀	Basic demand of industrial land minus vacancy
Effective demand of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₁₁	Basic demand of residential land minus vacancy
Population	Table function D₁	Annual population of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration
GDP	Table function D₂	Annual GDP of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration
Total intensity	Table function D₃	Total intensity of land use every year
Land reservation	Table function D₄	Annual land reservation
Industrial power consumption above designated size	Table function D₅	Annual industrial power consumption above designated size
The number of enterprises above the scale	Table function D₆	The number of enterprises above the scale every year
Housing area per capita	Table function D₇	Annual housing area per capita
Industrial production	Table function D₈	Annual industrial production
Per capita disposable income	Table function D₉	Annual per capita disposable income
Housing price	Table function D₁₀	Annual housing price
Structure index of industrial land	Table function D₁₁	Proportion of industrial land to construction land
Structure index of residential land	Table function D₁₂	Proportion of residential land to construction land
Vacancy rate of industrial land	Table function D₁₃	Annual proportion of vacant industrial land to total industrial land
Vacancy rate of residential land	Table function D₁₄	Annual proportion of vacant residential land to total residential land

Table 1

Figure 1

Table 2

Table 3

Variable equation of system model index"

Indicator variable	Equation
Scale of construction land	Status variable Z₁=INTEG (Supply of construction land)
Scale of industrial land	Status variable Z₂=INTEG (Supply of industrial land)
Scale of residential land	Status variable Z₃=INTEG (Supply of residential land)
Theoretical demand of construction land	Auxiliary variable F₁=population1.576+GDP0.013-264.217
Theoretical demand of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₂=industrial production0.0053+industrial power consumption above designated size0.416+ the number of enterprises above the scale*0.0027+32.015
Theoretical demand of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₃=housing price 0.044-per capita disposable income 0.004+housing area per capita*3.387-73.844
Supply of construction land	Auxiliary variable F₄=IF THEN ELSE (land reservation0.6-basic demand of construction land1.5(1-total intensity)>=0, basic demand of construction land1.5(1-total intensity), land reservation 0.6)
Supply of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₅=IF THEN ELSE (1.3supply of construction landstructure index of industrial land-effective demand of industrial land>=0, effective demand of industrial land, 1.3* supply of construction land * structure index of industrial land)
Supply of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₆=IF THEN ELSE (1.5supply of construction land structure index of residential land-effective demand of residential land>=0, effective demand of residential land, 1.5supply of construction landstructure index of residential land)
Basic demand of construction land	Auxiliary variable F₇=theoretical demand of construction land-scale of construction land
Basic demand of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₈=theoretical demand of industrial land-scale of industrial land
Basic demand of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₉=theoretical demand of residential land-scale of residential land
Effective demand of industrial land	Auxiliary variable F₁₀=basic demand of industrial land* (1-vacancy rate of industrial land)
Effective demand of residential land	Auxiliary variable F₁₁=basic demand of residential land* (1-vacancy rate of residential land)

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

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Indicator	Unstandardized coefficient		Standard coefficient	t	Sig.
Indicator	B	Standard deviation	Standard coefficient	t	Sig.
Constant	-264.217	81.619	-	-3.237	0.009
Total population	1.576	0.253	0.762	6.220	0.000
GDP	0.013	0.007	0.239	1.947	0.080

Year	Total population/10⁴ persons			GDP/10⁸ yuan			Increase value of industry/10⁸ yuan			Scale of construction land/km²
Year	Actual value	Simulation value	Deviation%	Actual value	Simulation value	Deviation %	Actual value	Simulation value	Deviation%	Actual value	Simulation value	Deviation %
2001	324.94	324.94	0.00	759.36	759.36	0.00	267.03	267.03	0.00	255.07	255.07	0.00
2002	328.80	335.41	2.01	830.85	860.33	3.55	293.25	304.96	3.99	268.81	272.75	1.47
2003	339.20	344.62	1.60	900.23	884.38	1.76	312.30	314.79	0.80	287.01	290.81	1.32
2004	349.93	352.06	0.61	1104.15	1062.33	3.79	362.60	345.96	4.59	300.22	303.36	1.05
2005	361.00	359.31	0.47	1349.64	1346.61	0.22	421.74	404.36	4.12	314.05	317.31	1.04
2006	372.42	365.93	1.74	1645.18	1591.93	3.24	524.14	503.18	4.00	337.74	331.93	1.72
2007	384.19	370.27	3.62	1953.97	1886.14	3.47	699.25	725.90	3.81	356.55	351.40	1.44
2008	396.34	386.06	2.59	2429.29	2486.22	2.34	881.82	906.61	2.81	386.07	379.91	1.60
2009	408.88	409.72	0.21	2994.94	3144.80	5.00	1212.15	1204.76	0.61	423.04	417.31	1.35
2010	421.81	433.63	2.80	3565.72	3695.42	3.64	1496.52	1458.41	2.55	468.25	461.36	1.47
2011	435.15	447.15	2.76	4513.05	4700.14	4.15	1947.60	2012.52	3.33	496.30	495.61	0.14
2012	448.91	448.52	0.09	5112.73	5308.80	3.83	2281.05	2259.65	0.94	514.47	505.78	1.69
2013	463.11	457.92	1.12	5895.84	5921.24	0.43	2416.18	2442.67	1.10	523.12	516.32	1.30

Parameter	Low intensive development mode	Medium intensive development mode	High intensive development mode
Total intensity	0-25, assuming the annual decrease and stable of intensity	25-75, assuming the annual increase and stable of intensity	75-100, assuming the annual increase and stable of intensity
Population	See prediction value in Table 6	See prediction value in Table 6	See prediction value in Table 6
GDP	See prediction value in Table 6	See prediction value in Table 6	See prediction value in Table 6
Increase value of industry	See prediction value in Table 6	See prediction value in Table 6	See prediction value in Table 6
Land reservation	Annual average decline of 1.5%	Annual average decline of 1%	Annual average decline of 0.8%
Vacancy rate of residential land	3%-5%	2%-3%	<1%
Housing area per capita	Annual average growth of 2.5%	Annual average growth of 1.5%	Annual average decline of 2%
Housing price	Annual average growth of 2.5%	Annual average growth of 5%	Annual average growth of 8%
Per capita disposable income	Annual average growth of 4%	Annual average growth of 7%	Annual average growth of 10%
Structure index of residential land	0.20-0.26	0.26-0.32	0.32-0.40
Vacancy rate of industrial land	Annual average growth of 2%	Annual average decline of 1%	Annual average decline of 3%
Industrial power consumption above designated size	Annual average growth of 7%	Annual average growth of 3%	Annual average growth of 1%
The number of enterprises above the scale	Annual average growth of 4%	Annual average growth of 2%	Annual average growth of 1%
Structure index of industrial land	Annual average growth of 2%	Keeping unchanged	Annual average decline of 1%

Year	Population (10⁴)	GDP (10⁸ yuan)	Increase value of industry (10⁸ yuan)
2016	493.33	7639.87	3003.56
2017	505.09	8258.70	3195.79
2018	516.84	8886.36	3397.13
2019	528.60	9499.52	3597.56
2020	540.35	10116.99	3802.62
2021	552.10	10744.24	4004.16
2022	563.86	11388.90	4204.36
2023	575.61	12060.84	4410.38
2024	587.37	12748.31	4617.66
2025	599.12	13462.22	4820.84
2026	610.87	14202.64	5008.85
2027	622.63	14955.38	5194.18
2028	634.38	15703.15	5386.37
2029	646.14	16425.49	5574.89
2030	657.89	17131.79	5758.86