Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 1346-1362.doi: 10.1007/s11442-019-1663-5
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XIONG Ying1,2, CHEN Yun1, PENG Fen1,2, LI Jingzhi1,2, YAN Xiaojing1
Received:
2018-10-17
Accepted:
2018-12-20
Online:
2019-08-25
Published:
2019-12-13
About author:
Xiong Ying (1977-), PhD and Professor, specialized in land use and urban sprawl, regional and urban planning.E-mail: xiong2001ying@126.com
Supported by:
XIONG Ying, CHEN Yun, PENG Fen, LI Jingzhi, YAN Xiaojing. Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(8): 1346-1362.
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Table 1
Main indexes of land supply and demand system model"
Variable name | Variable type | Variable explanation |
---|---|---|
Scale of construction land | Status variable Z1 | Total construction land |
Scale of industrial land | Status variable Z2 | Total industrial land |
Scale of residential land | Status variable Z3 | Total residential land |
Theoretical demand of construction land | Auxiliary variable F1 | Theoretical demand of construction land with the urban development |
Theoretical demand of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F2 | Theoretical demand of industrial land with the urban development |
Theoretical demand of residential land | Auxiliary variable F3 | Theoretical demand of residential land with the urban development |
Supply of construction land | Auxiliary variableF4 | Annual increase of construction land |
Supply of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F5 | Annual increase of industrial land |
Supply of residential land | Auxiliary variable F6 | Annual increase of residential land |
Basic demand of construction land | Auxiliary variable F7 | Theoretical demand of construction land minus the existing scale |
Basic demand of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F8 | Theoretical demand of industrial land minus the existing scale |
Basic demand of residential land | Auxiliary variable F9 | Theoretical demand of residential land minus the existing scale |
Effective demand of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F10 | Basic demand of industrial land minus vacancy |
Effective demand of residential land | Auxiliary variable F11 | Basic demand of residential land minus vacancy |
Population | Table function D1 | Annual population of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration |
GDP | Table function D2 | Annual GDP of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration |
Total intensity | Table function D3 | Total intensity of land use every year |
Land reservation | Table function D4 | Annual land reservation |
Industrial power consumption above designated size | Table function D5 | Annual industrial power consumption above designated size |
The number of enterprises above the scale | Table function D6 | The number of enterprises above the scale every year |
Housing area per capita | Table function D7 | Annual housing area per capita |
Industrial production | Table function D8 | Annual industrial production |
Per capita disposable income | Table function D9 | Annual per capita disposable income |
Housing price | Table function D10 | Annual housing price |
Structure index of industrial land | Table function D11 | Proportion of industrial land to construction land |
Structure index of residential land | Table function D12 | Proportion of residential land to construction land |
Vacancy rate of industrial land | Table function D13 | Annual proportion of vacant industrial land to total industrial land |
Vacancy rate of residential land | Table function D14 | Annual proportion of vacant residential land to total residential land |
Table 2
The result of regression based on annual population, GDP and actual demand of construction land"
Indicator | Unstandardized coefficient | Standard coefficient | t | Sig. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Standard deviation | ||||
Constant | -264.217 | 81.619 | - | -3.237 | 0.009 |
Total population | 1.576 | 0.253 | 0.762 | 6.220 | 0.000 |
GDP | 0.013 | 0.007 | 0.239 | 1.947 | 0.080 |
Table 3
Variable equation of system model index"
Indicator variable | Equation |
---|---|
Scale of construction land | Status variable Z1=INTEG (Supply of construction land) |
Scale of industrial land | Status variable Z2=INTEG (Supply of industrial land) |
Scale of residential land | Status variable Z3=INTEG (Supply of residential land) |
Theoretical demand of construction land | Auxiliary variable F1=population*1.576+GDP*0.013-264.217 |
Theoretical demand of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F2=industrial production*0.0053+industrial power consumption above designated size*0.416+ the number of enterprises above the scale*0.0027+32.015 |
Theoretical demand of residential land | Auxiliary variable F3=housing price *0.044-per capita disposable income *0.004+housing area per capita*3.387-73.844 |
Supply of construction land | Auxiliary variable F4=IF THEN ELSE (land reservation*0.6-basic demand of construction land*1.5(1-total intensity)>=0, basic demand of construction land*1.5(1-total intensity), land reservation *0.6) |
Supply of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F5=IF THEN ELSE (1.3*supply of construction land*structure index of industrial land-effective demand of industrial land>=0, effective demand of industrial land, 1.3* supply of construction land * structure index of industrial land) |
Supply of residential land | Auxiliary variable F6=IF THEN ELSE (1.5*supply of construction land* structure index of residential land-effective demand of residential land>=0, effective demand of residential land, 1.5*supply of construction land*structure index of residential land) |
Basic demand of construction land | Auxiliary variable F7=theoretical demand of construction land-scale of construction land |
Basic demand of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F8=theoretical demand of industrial land-scale of industrial land |
Basic demand of residential land | Auxiliary variable F9=theoretical demand of residential land-scale of residential land |
Effective demand of industrial land | Auxiliary variable F10=basic demand of industrial land* (1-vacancy rate of industrial land) |
Effective demand of residential land | Auxiliary variable F11=basic demand of residential land* (1-vacancy rate of residential land) |
Table 4
Simulation data and statistic data of land supply and demand system in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration"
Year | Total population/104 persons | GDP/108 yuan | Increase value of industry/108 yuan | Scale of construction land/km2 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual value | Simulation value | Deviation% | Actual value | Simulation value | Deviation % | Actual value | Simulation value | Deviation% | Actual value | Simulation value | Deviation % | |
2001 | 324.94 | 324.94 | 0.00 | 759.36 | 759.36 | 0.00 | 267.03 | 267.03 | 0.00 | 255.07 | 255.07 | 0.00 |
2002 | 328.80 | 335.41 | 2.01 | 830.85 | 860.33 | 3.55 | 293.25 | 304.96 | 3.99 | 268.81 | 272.75 | 1.47 |
2003 | 339.20 | 344.62 | 1.60 | 900.23 | 884.38 | 1.76 | 312.30 | 314.79 | 0.80 | 287.01 | 290.81 | 1.32 |
2004 | 349.93 | 352.06 | 0.61 | 1104.15 | 1062.33 | 3.79 | 362.60 | 345.96 | 4.59 | 300.22 | 303.36 | 1.05 |
2005 | 361.00 | 359.31 | 0.47 | 1349.64 | 1346.61 | 0.22 | 421.74 | 404.36 | 4.12 | 314.05 | 317.31 | 1.04 |
2006 | 372.42 | 365.93 | 1.74 | 1645.18 | 1591.93 | 3.24 | 524.14 | 503.18 | 4.00 | 337.74 | 331.93 | 1.72 |
2007 | 384.19 | 370.27 | 3.62 | 1953.97 | 1886.14 | 3.47 | 699.25 | 725.90 | 3.81 | 356.55 | 351.40 | 1.44 |
2008 | 396.34 | 386.06 | 2.59 | 2429.29 | 2486.22 | 2.34 | 881.82 | 906.61 | 2.81 | 386.07 | 379.91 | 1.60 |
2009 | 408.88 | 409.72 | 0.21 | 2994.94 | 3144.80 | 5.00 | 1212.15 | 1204.76 | 0.61 | 423.04 | 417.31 | 1.35 |
2010 | 421.81 | 433.63 | 2.80 | 3565.72 | 3695.42 | 3.64 | 1496.52 | 1458.41 | 2.55 | 468.25 | 461.36 | 1.47 |
2011 | 435.15 | 447.15 | 2.76 | 4513.05 | 4700.14 | 4.15 | 1947.60 | 2012.52 | 3.33 | 496.30 | 495.61 | 0.14 |
2012 | 448.91 | 448.52 | 0.09 | 5112.73 | 5308.80 | 3.83 | 2281.05 | 2259.65 | 0.94 | 514.47 | 505.78 | 1.69 |
2013 | 463.11 | 457.92 | 1.12 | 5895.84 | 5921.24 | 0.43 | 2416.18 | 2442.67 | 1.10 | 523.12 | 516.32 | 1.30 |
Table 5
Main prediction indexes in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration from 2016 to 2030"
Parameter | Low intensive development mode | Medium intensive development mode | High intensive development mode |
---|---|---|---|
Total intensity | 0-25, assuming the annual decrease and stable of intensity | 25-75, assuming the annual increase and stable of intensity | 75-100, assuming the annual increase and stable of intensity |
Population | See prediction value in | See prediction value in | See prediction value in |
GDP | See prediction value in | See prediction value in | See prediction value in |
Increase value of industry | See prediction value in | See prediction value in | See prediction value in |
Land reservation | Annual average decline of 1.5% | Annual average decline of 1% | Annual average decline of 0.8% |
Vacancy rate of residential land | 3%-5% | 2%-3% | <1% |
Housing area per capita | Annual average growth of 2.5% | Annual average growth of 1.5% | Annual average decline of 2% |
Housing price | Annual average growth of 2.5% | Annual average growth of 5% | Annual average growth of 8% |
Per capita disposable income | Annual average growth of 4% | Annual average growth of 7% | Annual average growth of 10% |
Structure index of residential land | 0.20-0.26 | 0.26-0.32 | 0.32-0.40 |
Vacancy rate of industrial land | Annual average growth of 2% | Annual average decline of 1% | Annual average decline of 3% |
Industrial power consumption above designated size | Annual average growth of 7% | Annual average growth of 3% | Annual average growth of 1% |
The number of enterprises above the scale | Annual average growth of 4% | Annual average growth of 2% | Annual average growth of 1% |
Structure index of industrial land | Annual average growth of 2% | Keeping unchanged | Annual average decline of 1% |
Table 6
Prediction of population, GDP, and industrial production in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration from 2016 to 2030"
Year | Population (104) | GDP (108 yuan) | Increase value of industry (108 yuan) |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 493.33 | 7639.87 | 3003.56 |
2017 | 505.09 | 8258.70 | 3195.79 |
2018 | 516.84 | 8886.36 | 3397.13 |
2019 | 528.60 | 9499.52 | 3597.56 |
2020 | 540.35 | 10116.99 | 3802.62 |
2021 | 552.10 | 10744.24 | 4004.16 |
2022 | 563.86 | 11388.90 | 4204.36 |
2023 | 575.61 | 12060.84 | 4410.38 |
2024 | 587.37 | 12748.31 | 4617.66 |
2025 | 599.12 | 13462.22 | 4820.84 |
2026 | 610.87 | 14202.64 | 5008.85 |
2027 | 622.63 | 14955.38 | 5194.18 |
2028 | 634.38 | 15703.15 | 5386.37 |
2029 | 646.14 | 16425.49 | 5574.89 |
2030 | 657.89 | 17131.79 | 5758.86 |
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