The Belt and Road: Geographical pattern and regional risks

doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1611-4

Abstract

Abstract:

Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aiming at green, health, intellect and peace and the joint development with people of the countries along the route. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risks are certainly the scientific fundamentals of sustainable development for the Belt and Road construction. Applied remote sensing monitoring, statistical analysis, this paper investigates the regional characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and terrestrial ecosystems production, as well as socio-economic conditions. Based on the regional characteristics, the Belt and Road is divided into 9 sub-regions: Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate, Central and West Asia arid sub-region, Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, Pakistan arid sub-region, Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate, Eastern China monsoon sub-region, Northwest China arid sub-region and Tibetan Plateau sub-region. Combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of extreme events including heat waves, droughts and floods in the coming 30 years (2021-2050). Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would be a warming trend; both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in high temperature and heat waves risk; Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate in high drought risk; Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate as well as Eastern China in high risk of flooding.

Key words: the Belt and Road, regional characteristics, extreme events, environmental change, risks

Shaohong WU, Lulu LIU, Yanhua LIU, Jiangbo GAO, Erfu DAI, Aiqing FENG, Wentao WANG. The Belt and Road: Geographical pattern and regional risks[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(4): 483-495.

Figures/Tables 11

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Table 3

Table 4

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

References 29

[1]	Chen M X, Liu W D, Yeerken W,et al., 2016. The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the pattern of the development of urbanization in China.Mountain Research, (5): 637-644. (in Chinese)
[2]	Cui P, 2017. International research project on natural disaster risk and integrated disaster reduction.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Z2: 26-28. (in Chinese)
[3]	Ding Y H, 2010. Climate Change. Beijing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese)
[4]	Dong S, Kolosov V, Li Y,et al., 2017. Green development modes of the belt and road.Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 10(1): 53-69. doi: 10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-1-53-69
[5]	Dong S, Li Z, Li Y,et al., 2015. Resources, environment and economic patterns and sustainable development modes of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Journal of resources and ecology, 6(2): 65-72. doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2015.02.001
[6]	Ge Q S, Jiang D, Lu F,et al., 2017. Views on the study of geopolitical environment system simulation.Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(3): 371-382. (in Chinese) doi: 10.11821/dlxb201703001
[7]	Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S,et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change.Nature Climate Change, 3(9): 816-821. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1911
[8]	IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
[9]	Jones P D, Hulme M, 1996. Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: Methods and illustrations.International Journal of Climatology, 16(4): 361-377. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
[10]	Köppen W, 1900. Versuch einer Klassifikation der Klimate, vorzugsweise nach ihren Beziehungen zur Pflanzenwelt.Geographische Zeitschrift, 6(11.H): 593-611. doi: 10.2307/27803924
[11]	Li P, Qian H, Ken W,et al., 2015. Building a new and sustainable “Silk Road Economic Belt”.Environmental Earth Sciences, 74(10): 7267-7270. doi: 10.1007/s12665-015-4739-2
[12]	Li X W, Zhang L, Guo H D,et al., 2016. Space recognition of eco-environment global change response of arid and semi-arid region of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 31(5): 559-566. (in Chinese)
[13]	Li Z H, Wang J L, Zhao Z P,et al., 2014. Eco-environment patterns and ecological civilization modes in the Silk Road Economic Zone.Resources Science, (12): 2476-2482. (in Chinese)
[14]	Liu W D, 2015. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography, 34(5): 538-544. (in Chinese)
[15]	Liu W D, 2017.The Belt and Road Strategy Research. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)
[16]	Ma A N, 2007. Theoretical Geographical Science and Philosophy. Beijing: Higher Education Press. (in Chinese)
[17]	National Remote Sensing Center of China (NRSCC), Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, 2015. Global Ecosystems and Environment Observation: Annual Report from China (The Belt and Road Initiative Ecological and Environmental Conditions). (in Chinese)
[18]	National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, 2015. Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.Finance & Accounting for Communications, (4): 82-87. (in Chinese)
[19]	Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E, Gibson P B, 2017. Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.Scientific Reports, 7(1): 12256. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12520-2 pmid: 28947762
[20]	Wu G H, 2008. Physical Geography. Beijing: Higher Education Press. (in Chinese)
[21]	Wu S, Dai E, Huang M,et al., 2007. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century.Chinese Science Bulletin, 52(10): 1379-1386. doi: 10.1007/s11434-007-0197-x
[22]	Wu S H, Pan T, Liu Y H,et al., 2017. Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(1): 3-17. (in Chinese) doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701001
[23]	Xu H, Qimanguli Y, Yao R,et al., 2016. Environmental risk analysis and responding strategy for the Belt and Road Initiative.Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 8(2): 36-41. (in Chinese)
[24]	Yao T D, Guo H D, 2017. Extensive third pole environment and the Belt and Road synergistic development.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Z2: 23-25. (in Chinese)
[25]	Xi J P, 2017. Work Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt and The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Speech at the Opening Ceremony of The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (14 May 2017, Beijing).China Economic Weekly, 20: 54-57. (in Chinese)
[26]	Zhang Q, Han L, Jia J,et al., 2016. Management of drought risk under global warming.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125(1/2): 187-196. doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1503-1
[27]	Zheng D, 2008. Study on the Eco-geographical Region System of China. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)
[28]	Zhu J, 2017. Climate change research and observation project.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Z2: 29-31. (in Chinese)
[29]	Zou J L, Liu C L, Yin G Q,et al., 2015. Spatial patterns and economic effects of China’s trade with countries along the Belt and Road.Progress in Geography, 34(5): 598-605. (in Chinese)

Index	Data source	Duration	Spatial resolution
Terrain	National Centers for Environmental Information	2009	1 km
Soil	Harmonized World Soil Database	2012	1 km
Land-cover	Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University	2014	250 m
Protected areas	World Database on natural reserves	2017	Reserve area
Temperature	Met Office Hadley Centre	1950-2050	0.5° * 0.5°
Precipitation	Met Office Hadley Centre	1950-2050	0.5° * 0.5°
SPEI	Spanish National Research Council	1950-2004	0.5° * 0.5°
Runoff depth	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	1971-2050	0.5° * 0.5°
NPP	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	1971-2050	0.5° * 0.5°
Grain yield^*	Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison	1951-2050	0.5° * 0.5°
GDP	World Bank	1960-2016	Countries

Levels	Index
Levels	CI	HI	FI
Mild	-1.8<CI≤-1.2	2.8≤HI<6.5	30(35)-150 mm
Moderate	-2.4<CI≤-1.8	6.5≤HI<10.5	150-250 mm
Severe	CI≤-2.4	HI≥10.5	≥250 mm

	Temperature (℃/10a)		Precipitation (mm/10a)		Runoff depth coefficient (10^-3/10a)		NPP (gC·m^-2/10a)		Grain yield (t·ha^-1/10a)
	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
CEE	0.405^*	0.305	-0.132	-7.83	-1.22	0.14	17.3	10.0^*	-0.0573	-0.308^*
MR	0.725^*	0.682^*	16.1^*	8.80	2.82	-0.65	18.9^*	24.9^*	0.122^*	0.175^*
SEA	0.275^*	0.422^*	16.0	49.9	3.24	3.26	15.1	33.8^*	-0.0606	-0.249^*
CWA	0.495^*	0.605^*	5.24	-13.2^*	3.50	0.78	4.87	-0.283^*	0.0082	-0.200^*
PAK	0.476^*	0.530^*	-6.00	-17.4	-1.22	5.28	-1.20	4.14^*	-0.321	-0.304
BIM	0.424^*	0.582^*	-5.38	-44.8	-0.35	-4.71	5.11	19.7^*	-0.358	-0.424^*
CNE	0.352^*	0.587^*	5.49	18.1	-6.12	-2.54	10.5	28.3^*	-0.0271	0.203
CNW	0.310^*	0.646^*	0.275	0.823	-0.097	-2.72	1.75	2.75^*	-0.0146	0.040
TIB	0.544^*	0.585^*	0.335	4.18	-0.71	-1.18	-0.220^*	32.0^*	0.0856^*	0.151^*