Agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development in China and their implications for rural vitalization

doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1590-5

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on panel data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 at the county level in China, this study analyzed the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural labor changes and economic development under rapid urbanization using quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods. Three primary conclusions were obtained. (1) During 1991-2010, China’s agricultural labor at the county level showed a decreasing trend, down 4.91% from 1991 to 2000 and 15.50% from 2000 to 2010. In spatial distribution, agricultural labor force has evolved by decreasing eastward and increasing westward. (2) During 1991-2010, China’s agricultural economy at the county level showed a sustained growth trend, with a total increase of 140.13%, but with clear regional differences. The proportion of agricultural output in national GDP gradually decreased, characterized by decreases in eastern China and increases in western China. (3) The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly growth in northwest China, for both the agricultural economy and labor, and are intensive in southeast China, with growth of the agricultural economy and reduction of agricultural labor. Regions with lagged, fading, and declining coupling types are generally coincident with the high incidence of poverty in China. However, different coupling types had a positive developing trend for 1991-2010. Finally, based on the coupling types and spatial distribution characteristics of economic-labor elasticity coefficients, some policy suggestions are proposed to promote the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and the vitalization of rural economies.

Key words: agricultural labor change, agricultural economic development, economic-labor elasticity coefficient, spatio-temporal coupling, rural vitalization

Li MA, Hualou LONG, Yingnan ZHANG, Shuangshuang TU, Dazhuan GE, Xiaosong TU. Agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development in China and their implications for rural vitalization[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(2): 163-179.

Figures/Tables 10

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Table 1

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Table 2

Figure 4

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Table 4

ELEC coupling characteristics and rural vitalization paths"

Type of economic development	Coupling type	Spatial distribution	Basic feature	Vitalization path
Agricultural economic growth area	Growth	Mainly distributed in western Sichuan, Qinghai-Tibet, Xinjiang, Gansu, most of Inner Mongolia, and northeast China	Physical and geographical location conditions are relatively poor; lacking substantial progress in industrial adjustment; heavily dependent on resources	Accelerating transformation of the industrial structure; moderately guiding land scale management; actively cultivating new management types; strengthening the construction of rural professional talent
	Extensive	Mainly distributed in western Sichuan, Qinghai-Tibet, Xinjiang, and some counties in Heilongjiang	Physical and geographical location conditions are relatively poor; deep poverty; unclear industrial development orientation	Strengthening policy guidance and support; determining regional functions and highlighting comparative advantages; cultivating new types of rural industries; encouraging diversified economy
	Intensive	Mainly distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, parts of Sichuan and Chongqing and the Loess Plateau	Rapid economic development, high levels of urbanization and agricultural modernization; core areas for economic growth and high population density	Improving the quality of agricultural development; constructing special towns; promoting the integrated development of rural industries; strengthening grassroots governance and institutional innovation
Agricultural economic decline area	Lagged	Centrally distributed on the edge of the Tibet Autonomous Region	Poor physical and geographical location, infertile soil unfavorable for agricultural production; deep poverty; backward ideas, low labor quality and poor labor skills	Reinforcing infrastructure construction and capital investment; cultivating new agricultural management types; emphasizing rural education; attracting talent to return and restructure their hometowns
	Fading
	Declining

Table 4

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Type	ECR_mn	LCR_mn	ELEC_mn	ELEC characteristics
Growth	ECR_mn > 0	LCR_mn > 0	ELEC_mn > 1	The agricultural economy grows faster than the agricultural labor population
Extensive	ECR_mn > 0	LCR_mn > 0	0 < ELEC_mn < 1	The agricultural economy grows slower than the agricultural labor population
Intensive	ECR_mn > 0	LCR_mn < 0	ELEC_mn < 0	The agricultural economy grows, but the agricultural labor population decreases
Lagged	ECR_mn < 0	LCR_mn > 0	ELEC_mn < 0	The agricultural economy declines, but the agricultural labor population increases
Fading	ECR_mn < 0	LCR_mn < 0	ELEC_mn > 1	The agricultural economy declines faster than the agricultural labor population
Declining	EC_Rmn < 0	LCR_mn < 0	0 < ELEC_mn < 1	The agricultural labor population declines faster than the agricultural economy

ECR	Coupling type	LCR	ELEC	1991-2000	2000-2010	1991-2010
ECR > 0	Growth	LCR > 0	ELEC > 1	701 (34.63%)	607 (29.99%)	669 (33.05%)
	Extensive	LCR > 0	0 < ELEC < 1	160 (7.91%)	83 (4.1%)	34 (1.68%)
	Intensive	LCR < 0	ELEC < 0	980 (48.42%)	1257 (62.1%)	1292 (63.83%)
ECR < 0	Lagged	LCR > 0	ELEC < 0	99 (4.89%)	18 (0.89%)	9 (0.44%)
	Fading	LCR < 0	ELEC > 1	23 (1.14%)	22 (1.09%)	8 (0.4%)
	Declining	LCR < 0	0 < ELEC < 1	61 (3.01%)	37 (1.83%)	12 (0.59%)

	2000-2010 (T₂)						P₁	Decrease
	Growth	Extensive	Intensive	Lagged	Fading	Declining	P₁	Decrease
1991-2000 (T₁)
Growth	13.59	0.64	19.12	0.25	0.40	0.64	34.63	21.05
Extensive	1.88	0.20	5.58	0.05	0.10	0.10	7.91	7.71
Intensive	12.15	3.01	31.23	0.44	0.54	1.04	48.42	17.19
Lagged	1.63	0.10	2.96	0.1	0.00	0.05	4.89	4.74
Fading	0.15	0.05	0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.14	1.14
Declining	0.59	0.10	2.27	0.00	0.05	0.00	3.01	3.01
P₂	29.99	4.10	62.10	0.89	1.09	1.83	100
Increase	16.40	3.90	30.88	0.74	1.09	1.83