Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961-2015

doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1584-3

Abstract

Abstract:

Understanding the past variations in extreme drought is especially beneficial to the improvementof drought resistance planning and drought risk management in China. Based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015 and a meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought at inter-decadal, inter-annual and seasonal scales in China were analyzed. The results revealed that 12 months cumulative precipitation with 1/2 to 5/8 of average annual precipitation will trigger extreme drought. From the period 1961-1987 to the period 1988-2015, the mean annual frequency of extreme drought (FED) increased along a strip extending from southwest China (SWC) to the western part of northeast China (NEC). The increased FED showed the highest value in spring, followed by winter, autumn and summer. There was a continuous increase in the decadal-FED from the 1990s to the 2010s on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the southeast China (SEC) and the SW. During the period 1961-2015, the number of continuous drought stations was almost the same among 4 to 6 months and among 10 to 12 months of continuous drought, respectively. It can be inferred that drought lasting 6 or 12 months may lead to more severe drought disasters due to longer duration. The range of the longest continuous drought occurred in the 21st century had widely increased compared with that in the 1980s and the 1990s. Our findings may be helpful for water resources management and reducing the risk of drought disasters in China.

Key words: extreme drought, China, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, climate change

Jing ZHANG, Yanjun SHEN. Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961-2015[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 67-83.

Figures/Tables 9

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Categories	SPEI classifications	Cumulative probability (%)
Extremely dry	≤-2.0	2.28
Severely dry	-1.99 to -1.5	6.68
Moderately dry	-1.49 to -1.0	15.87
Near normal	-0.99 to 0.99	50.00
Moderately wet	1.0 to 1.49	84.13
Severely wet	1.5 to 1.99	93.32
Extremely wet	≥2.0	97.72

Regions		Frequency of extreme drought (%)
Regions	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010-2015
NEC	2.2	1.3	1.8	1.5	3.0↑	1.3
NWC	4.3	3.8	1.4	1.3	3.2↑	2.6
TP	2.4	3.4	2.5	1.3	1.9↑	2.7↑
NC	4.3	1.4	0.8	2.8	1.0	1.8↑
SEC	3.2	1.5	0.6	1.2	1.7↑	2.4↑
SWC	2.0	1.2	1.1	0.9	2.6↑	5.9↑
China	3.2	2.1	1.2	1.5	2.2↑	2.7↑