Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1582-5

Abstract

Abstract:

Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.

Key words: arid/humid patterns, climate change, sensitivity, aridity index, China

Danyang MA, Haoyu DENG, Yunhe YIN, Shaohong WU, Du ZHENG. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 29-48.

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Model name	Original resolution (latitude × longitude)	Modeling center	Country
NorESM1-M	1.875° × 2.5°	Norwegian Climate Centre	Norway
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2.8°×2.8°	Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology	Japan
IPSL-CM5A-LR	1.875°×3.75°	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace	France
HadGEM2-ES	1.25°×1.875°	Met Office Hadley Centre	UK
GFDL-ESM2M	2.0°×2.5°	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory	USA

Arid/humid climate region	Aridity index (AI = ET_o/P)	Natural vegetation type
Humid	AI?<?1.0	Forest
Sub-humid	1.0 ≤ AI?< 1.5	Forest steppe (including meadow)
Semi-arid	1.5 ≤ AI?< 4.0	Steppe (meadow steppe, and desert steppe)
Arid	AI?≥ 4.0	Desert

GCM	Period	Humid		Sub-humid		Semi-arid		Arid
		Area	Change	Area	Change	Area	Change	Area	Change
	1981-2010	35.76		13.94		24.61		25.69
NorESM1-M	2040-2069	32.78	-8.33	15.27	9.54	26.65	8.29	25.29	-1.56
NorESM1-M	2070-2099	31.47	-12	16.26	16.64	26.04	5.81	26.23	2.1
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2040-2069	32.13	-10.15	16.24	16.5	27.62	12.23	24.01	-6.54
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2070-2099	32.75	-8.42	17.02	22.09	26.8	8.9	23.43	-8.8
IPSL-CM5A-LR	2040-2069	35.37	-1.09	16.35	17.29	22.33	-9.26	25.95	1.01
IPSL-CM5A-LR	2070-2099	30.18	-15.6	18.87	35.37	23.14	-5.97	27.81	8.25
HadGEM2-ES	2040-2069	34.45	-3.66	17.15	23.03	21.67	-11.95	26.74	4.09
HadGEM2-ES	2070-2099	33.97	-5.01	18.71	34.22	21.54	-12.47	25.78	0.35
GFDL-ESM2M	2040-2069	34.15	-4.5	17.14	22.96	26.15	6.26	22.56	-12.18
GFDL-ESM2M	2070-2099	30.26	-15.38	20.03	43.69	26.13	6.18	23.57	-8.25
Multi-model mean	2040-2069	33.64	-5.93	16.21	16.28	24.95	1.38	25.19	-1.95
Multi-model mean	2070-2099	31.25	-12.61	17.94	28.69	24.98	1.5	25.83	0.54

GCM		2°C				4°C
GCM		Humid	Sub- humid	Semi- arid	Arid	Humid	Sub- humid	Semi- arid	Arid
NorESM1-M	Expansion	0.47	3.61	3.26	0.73	0.72	6.28	4.84	1.10
	Contraction	3.23	2.54	1.19	1.09	5.05	4.07	2.38	1.44
	Total changed	8.06				12.93
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	Expansion	0.87	8.05	4.24	0.13	1.64	8.33	4.92	0.54
	Contraction	6.61	2.84	1.68	2.17	6.15	4.06	2.64	2.57
	Total changed	13.29				15.42
IPSL-CM5A-LR	Expansion	1.59	3.75	2.25	2.55	3.17	7.00	2.63	1.61
	Contraction	2.50	2.89	3.85	0.90	2.95	3.63	5.74	2.10
	Total changed	10.13				14.41
HadGEM2-ES	Expansion	1.23	4.97	3.35	1.24	1.22	7.81	3.41	1.58
	Contraction	3.57	3.68	2.69	0.86	4.08	3.33	5.32	1.30
	Total changed	10.79				14.03
GFDL-ESM2M	Expansion	1.12	2.72	3.50	1.21	0.58	5.62	4.70	0.88
	Contraction	1.87	2.04	2.00	2.64	5.08	3.05	1.34	2.32
	Total changed	8.55				11.78
Multi-model mean	Expansion	1.06	4.62	3.32	1.17	1.47	7.01	4.10	1.14
	Contraction	3.56	2.80	2.28	1.53	4.66	3.63	3.48	1.94
	Total changed	10.17				13.72