Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes

doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1581-6

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the impacts of climate change and human activities, great uncertainties still exist in the response of climate extremes, especially in Central Asia (CA). In this study, we investigated spatial-temporal variation trends and abrupt changes in 17 indices of climate extremes, based on daily climate observations from 55 meteorological stations in CA during 1957-2005. We also speculated as to which atmospheric circulation factors had the greatest impacts on climate extremes. Our results indicated that the annual mean temperature (Tav), mean maximum and minimum temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.32oC/10a, 0.24oC/10a and 0.41oC/10a, respectively, which was far higher than the increasing rates either globally or across the Northern Hemisphere. Other temperature extremes showed widespread significant warming trends, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. All temperature extremes exhibited spatially widespread rising trends. Compared to temperature changes, precipitation extremes showed higher spatial and temporal variabilities. The annual total precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 4.76 mm/10a, and all precipitation extremes showed rising trends except for annual maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), which significantly decreased at a rate of -3.17 days/10a. On the whole, precipitation extremes experienced slight wetter trends in the Tianshan Mountains, Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik (Hill), the Kyzylkum Desert and most of Xinjiang. The results of Cumulative Deviation showed that Tav and Txav had a significant abrupt change around 1987, and all precipitation indices experienced abrupt changes in 1986. Spearman’s correlation analysis pointed to Siberian High and Tibetan Plateau Index_B as possibly being the most important atmospheric circulation factors affecting climate extremes in CA. A full quantitative understanding of these changes is crucial for the management and mitigation of natural hazards in this region.

Key words: abrupt change, atmospheric circulation, climate change, climate extremes, spatial-temporal variability, Central Asia

Man ZHANG, Yaning CHEN, Yanjun SHEN, Baofu LI. Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 3-28.

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Index	Indicator name	Definitions	Units
Tav	Mean Tmean	Annual mean temperature	oC
Txav	Mean Tmax	Annual average daily maximum temp	oC
Tnav	Mean Tmin	Annual average daily minimum temp	oC
FD0	Frost days	Annual count when TN (daily minimum) < 0oC	days
ID0	Ice days	Annual count when TX (daily maximum) < 0oC	days
SU25	Summer days	Annual count when TX (daily maximum) > 25oC	days
TXx	Max Tmax	Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temp	oC
TNx	Max Tmin	Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temp	oC
TXn	Min Tmax	Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temp	oC
TNn	Min Tmin	Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temp	oC
Prcptot	Annual total wet-day precipitation	Annual total precipitation in wet days (RR ≥1mm)	mm
CDD	Consecutive dry days	Annual maximum number of consecutive days with RR <1 mm	days
CWD	Consecutive wet days	Annual maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥1 mm	days
R10mm	Number of heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when RR ≥10 mm	days
R20mm	Number of very heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when RR ≥20 mm	days
Rx1 day	Max 1-day precipitation amount	Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation	mm
Rx5 day	Max 5-day precipitation amount	Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation	mm

Index	MK test				Percentage of stations showing increasing trend	Percentage of stations showing significant increasing trend	Percentage of stations showing decreasing trend	Percentage of stations showing significant decreasing trend
Index	Trend rate	Z-value	Trends	Significance level (p)	Percentage of stations showing increasing trend	Percentage of stations showing significant increasing trend	Percentage of stations showing decreasing trend	Percentage of stations showing significant decreasing trend
Tav	0.032oC/a	4.89	↑	0.01	98.18%	94.55%	1.82%	0
Txav	0.024oC/a	3.39	↑	0.01	100%	70.91%	0	0
Tnav	0.041oC/a	5.78	↑	0.01	98.18%	94.55%	1.82%	1.82%
FD0	-0.323 days/a	-4.71	↓	0.01	3.64%	0	96.36%	80.00%
ID0	-0.187 days/a	-2.31	↓	0.05	3.64%	0	96.36%	25.45%
SU25	0.206 days/a	3.18	↑	0.01	96.36%	45.45%	3.64%	1.82%
TXx	0.020oC/a	2.67	↑	0.01	81.82%	29.09%	18.18%	1.82%
TNx	0.030oC/a	5.14	↑	0.01	87.27%	58.18%	12.73%	1.82%
TXn	0.059oC/a	2.38	↑	0.05	96.36%	34.55%	3.64%	0
TNn	0.088oC/a	3.86	↑	0.01	100%	70.91%	0	0

Index	Cumulative deviation		Period	Student’s t test
Index	Q/Sqrt(n)	Year of change	Period	Mean value	P value
Tav	2.02*	1987	1957-1986	8.25oC/a	-2.87*
Tav	2.02*	1987	1987-2005	9.09oC/a	-2.87*
Txav	1.58*	1987	1957-1986	14.69oC/a	-2.10*
Txav	1.58*	1987	1987-2005	15.31oC/a	-2.10*
Tnav	2.36*	1977	1957-1976	1.58oC/a	-3.71*
Tnav	2.36*	1977	1977-2005	2.66oC/a	-3.71*
FD0	1.97*	1976	1957-1975	154.59 days/a	3.50*
FD0	1.97*	1976	1976-2005	147.41 days/a	3.50*
ID0	1.37*	1986	1957-1985	70.43 days/a	2.69*
ID0	1.37*	1986	1986-2005	64.17 days/a	2.69*
SU25	1.55*	1973	1957-1972	109.55 days/a	-3.24*
SU25	1.55*	1973	1973-2005	115.47 days/a	-3.24*
TXx	1.80*	1972	1957-1971	37.21oC/a	-2.53*
TXx	1.80*	1972	1972-2005	37.99oC/a	-2.53*
TNx	2.17*	1973	1957-1972	22.72oC/a	-2.81*
TNx	2.17*	1973	1973-2005	23.58oC/a	-2.81*
TXn	1.85*	1978	1957-1977	-15.67oC/a	-3.71*
TXn	1.85*	1978	1978-2005	-13.53oC/a	-3.71*
TNn	2.35*	1978	1957-1977	-26.48oC/a	-4.89*
TNn	2.35*	1978	1978-2005	-23.65oC/a	-4.89*

Index	MK test				Percentage of stations showing increasing trend (%)	Percentage of stations showing significant increasing trend (%)	Percentage of stations showing decreasing trend (%)	Percentage of stations showing significant decreasing trend (%)
Index	Trend rate	Z-value	Trends	Significance level (p)	Percentage of stations showing increasing trend (%)		Percentage of stations showing decreasing trend (%)
Prcptot	0.476 mm/a	2.11	↑	0.05	81.82	25.45	18.18	1.82
CDD	-0.317 days/a	-2.26	↓	0.05	21.82	1.82	78.18	5.45
CWD	0.001 days/a	0.28	↑	NS	49.09	3.64	50.91	0
R10mm	0.016 days/a	2.19	↑	0.05	76.36	12.73	23.64	1.82
R20mm	0.004 days/a	1.94	↑	0.1	69.09	5.45	30.91	0
Rx1 day	0.040 mm/a	2.14	↑	0.05	69.09	9.09	30.91	1.82
Rx5 day	0.055 mm/a	1.50	↑	NS	65.45	10.91	34.55	3.64

Index	Cumulative deviation		Periods	Student’s t test
Index	Q/Sqrt(n)	Year of change	Periods	Mean value	P value
Prcptot	1.44*	1986	1957-1985	147.25 mm/a	-2.64*
Prcptot	1.44*	1986	1986-2005	164.88 mm/a	-2.64*
CDD	1.58*	1986	1957-1985	113.49 days/a	2.75*
CDD	1.58*	1986	1986-2005	103.10 days/a	2.75*
CWD	0.81	1986	1957-1985	2.99 days/a	-∞*
CWD	0.81	1986	1986-2005	3.09 days/a	-∞*
R10mm	1.41*	1986	1957-1985	3.24 days/a	-1.94
R10mm	1.41*	1986	1986-2005	3.80 days/a	-1.94
R20mm	1.39*	1986	1957-1985	0.67 days/a	-∞*
R20mm	1.39*	1986	1986-2005	0.82 days/a	-∞*
Rx1 day	1.60*	1986	1957-1985	17.80 mm/a	-2.57*
Rx1 day	1.60*	1986	1986-2005	19.29 mm/a	-2.57*
Rx5 day	1.52*	1986	1957-1985	25.79 mm/a	-2.84*
Rx5 day	1.52*	1986	1986-2005	28.27 mm/a	-2.84*