Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 1965-1974.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1574-x
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Huanjiong WANG1(), Hui WANG1, Zexing TAO1,2, Quansheng GE1,*(
)
Received:
2017-06-12
Accepted:
2017-11-16
Online:
2018-12-20
Published:
2018-12-27
Contact:
Quansheng GE
E-mail:wanghj@igsnrr.ac.cn;geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn
About author:
Author: Wang Huanjiong: Associate Professor, specialized in climate change and biometeorology. E-mail:
Supported by:
Huanjiong WANG, Hui WANG, Zexing TAO, Quansheng GE. Potential range expansion of the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) in China under climate change[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(12): 1965-1974.
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Table 1
Different possibilities of the reproductive success of the red imported fire ant (RIFA). asum: the total number of alates produced by a colony during its lifetime. P: mean annual precipitation during 2004-2012."
Types | Conditions |
---|---|
Certain infestation | asum≥3900 and P≥510 mm |
Possible infestation | 1500≤asum<3900 and P≥510 mm |
Unlikely infestation | asum<1500 or P<510 mm |
Table 2
Comparisons between the potential and current range of the red imported fire ant (RIFA) for each province or region"
No. | Name | Total area | Current area | Potential range (%) | Comparison (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Certain | Possible | Unlikely | Certain | Possible | Unlikely | ||||
23 | Hainan | 291 | 93(32.0%) | 98.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
21 | Guangdong | 1559 | 956(61.3%) | 92.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 94.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
18 | Guangxi | 2103 | 679(32.3%) | 85.6 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 97.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
15 | Jiangxi | 1527 | 174(11.4%) | 79.6 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 92.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 |
20 | Fujian | 1103 | 121(11.0%) | 62.0 | 24.1 | 13.9 | 80.2 | 12.4 | 7.4 |
22 | Hong Kong | 26 | 8(30.8%) | 57.7 | 0.0 | 42.3 | 87.5 | 0.0 | 12.5 |
19 | Taiwan | 322 | 62(19.3%) | 57.1 | 9.6 | 33.2 | 59.7 | 17.7 | 22.6 |
12 | Shanghai | 59 | NaN | 55.9 | 32.2 | 11.9 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
14 | Hunan | 1929 | 24(1.2%) | 55.7 | 24.0 | 20.4 | 62.5 | 33.3 | 4.2 |
11 | Chongqing | 770 | 13(1.7%) | 40.4 | 22.9 | 36.8 | 84.6 | 15.4 | 0.0 |
10 | Hubei | 1755 | NaN | 39.7 | 21.9 | 38.4 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
13 | Zhejiang | 937 | NaN | 38.5 | 33.5 | 28.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
8 | Anhui | 1331 | NaN | 22.8 | 63.3 | 14.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
9 | Sichuan | 4552 | 54(1.2%) | 20.3 | 7.8 | 71.9 | 24.1 | 25.9 | 50.0 |
16 | Yunnan | 3422 | 738(21.6%) | 18.6 | 15.9 | 65.5 | 29.0 | 27.6 | 43.4 |
17 | Guizhou | 1603 | NaN | 9.8 | 25.0 | 65.2 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
7 | Jiangsu | 976 | NaN | 2.0 | 61.4 | 36.6 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
4 | Shaanxi | 2041 | NaN | 1.5 | 4.7 | 93.8 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
2 | Shanxi | 1599 | NaN | 0.3 | 1.2 | 98.5 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
6 | Henan | 1612 | NaN | 0.0 | 35.2 | 64.8 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
0 | Hebei | 1967 | NaN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
1 | Beijing | 175 | NaN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
3 | Tianjin | 121 | NaN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
5 | Shandong | 1546 | NaN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
Table 3
The difference in the number of cells within the certain infestation zone of the red imported fire ant (RIFA) between the 2000s and the 2090s in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5."
Number | Name | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 |
---|---|---|---|
6 | Henan | 9 | 1482 |
17 | Guizhou | 594 | 1388 |
5 | Shandong | 0 | 1309 |
16 | Yunnan | 259 | 1290 |
8 | Anhui | 455 | 1028 |
7 | Jiangsu | 316 | 956 |
14 | Hunan | 753 | 855 |
10 | Hubei | 101 | 846 |
13 | Zhejiang | 565 | 565 |
20 | Fujian | 417 | 417 |
0 | Hebei | 0 | 400 |
11 | Chongqing | 33 | 373 |
9 | Sichuan | ?139 | 336 |
15 | Jiangxi | 312 | 312 |
18 | Guangxi | 248 | 302 |
19 | Taiwan | 133 | 133 |
21 | Guangdong | 112 | 112 |
12 | Shanghai | 19 | 19 |
4 | Shaanxi | ?31 | 11 |
2 | Shanxi | ?5 | 9 |
23 | Hainan | 4 | 4 |
1 | Beijing | 0 | 0 |
3 | Tianjin | 0 | 0 |
22 | Hong Kong | 0 | 0 |
Table S1
Standard values of model parameters derived from Korzukhin et al. (2001))"
Model parameters | Values |
---|---|
Max territory area, Smax | 100 m2 |
Territory area at which worker mortality causes colony death, Smin | 0.02 m2 |
Minimum area for colony production Srep | 10 m2 |
Initial territory area, S0 | 0.01 m2 |
Queen longevity, tmax | 3000 days |
Colony proliferation parameter, q | 89 |
The day of the year when colony founding, J0 | 165 |
Temperature when colony growth begins, T1 | 21°C |
Figure S1
Three empirical curves used in the model of Korzukhin et al. (2001). (a) Colony growth rate in response to soil temperature (T). (b) Worker longevity L(T). 1/L(T) represents the colony decrease rate in response to T. (c) The share of resources directed to alate production f(DOY). DOY: day of the year."
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