Potential range expansion of the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) in China under climate change

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1574-x

Abstract

Abstract:

The red imported fire ant (RIFA, Solenopsis invicta), a notorious invasive insect, has received considerable attention owing to its impacts on native biodiversity, agriculture, and human health. Under global warming, the inhabitable area of the RIFA may be enlarged. However, few studies have focused on the potential range expansion of the RIFA in East Asia. Using a process-based physiological model, we simulated the potential range of the RIFA in China based on gridded temperature datasets for the current (2004-2012) and future (2090-2100) climates under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It was found that the southeastern part of China (below 32°N) is suitable for RIFA proliferation. The present distribution area of the RIFA corresponds well with the potential range simulated by the model. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 warming scenarios, the inhabitable area of the RIFA along the northern boundary would on average extend 101.3±85.7 (mean±SD) and 701.2±156.9 km, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, future climate change would significantly affect the inhabitable area of the RIFA. Our results provide the basis for local quarantine officials to curtail accidental introductions of this insect, especially in the certain and possible infestation zones.

Key words: biological invasions, distribution, climate change, red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta

Huanjiong WANG, Hui WANG, Zexing TAO, Quansheng GE. Potential range expansion of the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) in China under climate change[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(12): 1965-1974.

Figures/Tables 8

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Table S1

Figure S1

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Types	Conditions
Certain infestation	a_sum≥3900 and P≥510 mm
Possible infestation	1500≤a_sum<3900 and P≥510 mm
Unlikely infestation	a_sum<1500 or P<510 mm

No.	Name	Total area	Current area	Potential range (%)			Comparison (%)
No.	Name	Total area	Current area	Certain	Possible	Unlikely	Certain	Possible	Unlikely
23	Hainan	291	93(32.0%)	98.6	1.4	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
21	Guangdong	1559	956(61.3%)	92.5	4.9	2.6	94.0	4.2	1.8
18	Guangxi	2103	679(32.3%)	85.6	9.2	5.1	97.1	2.5	0.4
15	Jiangxi	1527	174(11.4%)	79.6	12.6	7.9	92.0	5.7	2.3
20	Fujian	1103	121(11.0%)	62.0	24.1	13.9	80.2	12.4	7.4
22	Hong Kong	26	8(30.8%)	57.7	0.0	42.3	87.5	0.0	12.5
19	Taiwan	322	62(19.3%)	57.1	9.6	33.2	59.7	17.7	22.6
12	Shanghai	59	NaN	55.9	32.2	11.9	NaN	NaN	NaN
14	Hunan	1929	24(1.2%)	55.7	24.0	20.4	62.5	33.3	4.2
11	Chongqing	770	13(1.7%)	40.4	22.9	36.8	84.6	15.4	0.0
10	Hubei	1755	NaN	39.7	21.9	38.4	NaN	NaN	NaN
13	Zhejiang	937	NaN	38.5	33.5	28.0	NaN	NaN	NaN
8	Anhui	1331	NaN	22.8	63.3	14.0	NaN	NaN	NaN
9	Sichuan	4552	54(1.2%)	20.3	7.8	71.9	24.1	25.9	50.0
16	Yunnan	3422	738(21.6%)	18.6	15.9	65.5	29.0	27.6	43.4
17	Guizhou	1603	NaN	9.8	25.0	65.2	NaN	NaN	NaN
7	Jiangsu	976	NaN	2.0	61.4	36.6	NaN	NaN	NaN
4	Shaanxi	2041	NaN	1.5	4.7	93.8	NaN	NaN	NaN
2	Shanxi	1599	NaN	0.3	1.2	98.5	NaN	NaN	NaN
6	Henan	1612	NaN	0.0	35.2	64.8	NaN	NaN	NaN
0	Hebei	1967	NaN	0.0	0.0	100.0	NaN	NaN	NaN
1	Beijing	175	NaN	0.0	0.0	100.0	NaN	NaN	NaN
3	Tianjin	121	NaN	0.0	0.0	100.0	NaN	NaN	NaN
5	Shandong	1546	NaN	0.0	0.0	100.0	NaN	NaN	NaN

Number	Name	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5
6	Henan	9	1482
17	Guizhou	594	1388
5	Shandong	0	1309
16	Yunnan	259	1290
8	Anhui	455	1028
7	Jiangsu	316	956
14	Hunan	753	855
10	Hubei	101	846
13	Zhejiang	565	565
20	Fujian	417	417
0	Hebei	0	400
11	Chongqing	33	373
9	Sichuan	?139	336
15	Jiangxi	312	312
18	Guangxi	248	302
19	Taiwan	133	133
21	Guangdong	112	112
12	Shanghai	19	19
4	Shaanxi	?31	11
2	Shanxi	?5	9
23	Hainan	4	4
1	Beijing	0	0
3	Tianjin	0	0
22	Hong Kong	0	0

Model parameters	Values
Max territory area, S^max	100 m²
Territory area at which worker mortality causes colony death, S^min	0.02 m²
Minimum area for colony production S^rep	10 m²
Initial territory area, S₀	0.01 m²
Queen longevity, t_max	3000 days
Colony proliferation parameter, q	89
The day of the year when colony founding, J₀	165
Temperature when colony growth begins, T₁	21°C