Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 1907-1932.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1571-0
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Jing’an SHAO1,2(), Yongfeng DANG3, Wei WANG3, Shichao ZHANG1,2
Received:
2017-05-13
Accepted:
2017-08-31
Online:
2018-12-20
Published:
2018-12-20
About author:
Author: Shao Jing’an (1976-), Professor, specialized in regional environment evolution and climate responses. E-mail:
Supported by:
Jing’an SHAO, Yongfeng DANG, Wei WANG, Shichao ZHANG. Simulation of future land-use scenarios in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region under the effects of multiple factors[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(12): 1907-1932.
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Table 1
The determination of elastic parameters of land-use conversion"
Types of scenarios* | Paddy field | Dryland | Woodland | Grassland | Construction land | Water area |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The simulation results in 2010 | 0.6 | 0.45 | 0.77 | 0.35 | 0.83 | 0.58 |
Natural growth | Using the same simulation parameters as those in 2010 | |||||
Food security | 0.78 | 0.8 | 0.65 | 0.43 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
Migration-related construction | 0.54 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 0.88 | 0.58 |
Ecological conservation | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.8 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.5 |
Figure 2
Matrix of land-use conversion rules under four scenariosNote: The numbers from 0 to 5 outside straight line box were paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area, respectively. In the matrix, the means of 0 is not possible, and the means of 1 is feasible. The lines in the matrix mean transfer out, and the columns represent transfer in."
Table 2
Land use demand in different scenarios of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region"
Types of scenarios | Description of scenarios |
---|---|
Natural growth | Land-use simulation in natural growth scenario will be carried out in the future, using land-use change rate during 2000-2010 as the rate of future land-use change. |
Food security | Under the goal of “cultivated land protection and farmers’ income increase”, we should adhere to the policy of “red line” of cultivated land, avoid the number of cultivated land being controlled due to excessive exploitation and also meet the demand for grain growth. Therefore, the main purpose of setting up the food security scenario is to control the quantity and direction of cultivated land roll out following the actual conditions, and give priority to protecting the original high-quality contiguous cultivated land. Under the premise of grain self-sufficiency in the TGRR, the paddy field will continue to be transformed into dryland by driving practical interests. With the further increase of slope farmland abandonment and the implementation of a new round of policy of returning farmland to woodland, paddy field and dryland near the mountain area gradually transformed into forest and grassland. Thus, in the future, the area of paddy field and dryland in the TGRR will be reduced to some extent. At the same time, the water area may increase in order to improve the irrigation guarantee rate. In addition, according to the division of the main functional areas of Chongqing and Hubei, the woodland in the TGRR will still be effectively protected, and most of the forest areas are restricted development zones. Therefore, the forest land in the TGRR is basically unchanged. After 2010, when the TGRR entered the post immigration period, the growth rate of construction land slowed down, but it still maintained a certain rate of growth. |
Immigration-related construction | When the TGRR entered the post immigration period, the strategic focus of socio-economic development was to readjust the socio-economic development strategy, build a national ecological economic zone, and reconstruct the complete industrial structure of the TGRR. Therefore, the migration-related construction scenario is set up to meet the basic needs of the socio-economic development in the post immigration period. In this scenario, cultivated land in relatively flat terrain area will be significantly reduced. Woodland has been increased because of the implementation of policy of returning farmland to forest, and the abandonment of cultivated land. The grassland was reduced slightly because of it cultivated to farmland. In addition, with the rapid development of aquaculture in the TGRR, the water surface has increased rapidly. |
Ecological conservation | In the development strategy of ecological construction, the state has positioned the Three Gorges Reservoir as a strategic reserve of freshwater resources and positioned it as a national environmental protection zone and a key ecological functional reserve. Therefore, the main purpose of setting up ecological conservation scenario is to strictly protect ecological land (e.g., woodland, grassland, water area, etc.). Cultivated land, especially dryland, has been significantly reduced due to the implementation of ecological conservation measures such as returning farmland to forests and forest projects, and woodland and grassland have increased significantly. Because of irrigation and water conservancy facilities construction and aquacultural development, the water area will be relatively increased, but the range is not large. The policy of large-scale development and construction is prohibited, and the expansion rate of construction land is less than that of migration-related construction scenario. |
Table 3
Results of auto-logistic regression for different land use types in 2010"
Code | Paddy field | Dryland | Woodland | Grassland | Construction land | Water area | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bata coefficient | Exp (B) | Bata coefficient | Exp (B) | Bata coefficient | Exp (B) | Bata coefficient | Exp (B) | Bata coefficient | Exp (B) | Bata coefficient | Exp (B) | |
sc1gr0 | -0.0008 | 0.9992 | -0.0005 | 0.9995 | 0.0003 | 1.0003 | 0.0003 | 1.0003 | -0.0038 | 0.9962 | -0.003 | 0.997 |
sc1gr1 | -0.0452 | 0.9558 | — | — | 0.0217 | 1.0219 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr2 | 0.001 | 1.001 | — | — | -0.0007 | 0.999 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr3 | -0.001 | 0.999 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr4 | — | — | — | — | 0.1485 | 1.1601 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr6 | — | — | 0.00001 | 1 | -0.00001 | 0.99999 | — | — | -0.0005 | 0.9995 | — | — |
sc1gr7 | — | — | 0.00001 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.008 | 0.992 |
sc1gr8 | — | — | -0.00001 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr9 | -7.95 | 0.0004 | — | — | 2.4797 | 11.9375 | -29.5009 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr10 | 0.0085 | 1.0086 | — | — | — | — | 0.0131 | 1.0132 | -0.0094 | 0.9906 | — | — |
sc1gr11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.0001 | 0.9999 | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr12 | — | — | — | — | 0.0005 | 1.0005 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
sc1gr13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2594 | 1.2961 | — | — | — | — |
Lyfd0 | 0.738 | 2.0918 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lyfd1 | — | — | 1.4647 | 4.3261 | — | — | 0.2414 | 1.273 | — | — | — | — |
Lyfd2 | -0.2814 | 0.7547 | — | — | 3.1686 | 23.7745 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lyfd3 | — | — | 0.0616 | 1.0636 | — | — | 1.0544 | 2.8702 | — | — | — | — |
Lyfd4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0952 | 1.0999 | — | — |
Lyfd5 | -0.028 | 0.9723 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.114 | 1.121 |
Constant | -1.258 | 0.2841 | -2.8154 | 0.0599 | -6.429 | 0.0016 | -3.838 | 0.022 | -2.269 | 0.103 | 0.851 | 2.342 |
ROC value | 0.91 | 0.842 | 0.885 | 0.903 | 0.989 | 0.997 |
Table 4
Land-use conversion matrix in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2000-2010 (km2)"
2000 | 2010 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Woodland | Grassland | Water area | Construction land | Paddy field | Dryland | Total transferring out area | |
Woodland | 15.94 | 76.88 | 28.8 | 0.97 | 21.88 | 144.47 | |
Grassland | 195.89 | 32.02 | 14.66 | 0.45 | 51.57 | 294.6 | |
Water area | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.81 | 0.04 | 0.94 | 1.91 | |
Construction land | 0.84 | 0.35 | 12.97 | 0 | 0 | 14.15 | |
Paddy field | 33.09 | 1.21 | 26.98 | 107.35 | 0.66 | 169.3 | |
Dryland | 242.78 | 121.26 | 51.41 | 162.42 | 0.02 | 577.9 | |
Total transferring into area | 472.62 | 138.87 | 200.26 | 314.03 | 1.49 | 75.06 | 1202.33 |
Table 5
The examinations of land-use modeling results in 2010"
Inspection index | Paddy field | Dryland | Woodland | Grassland | Construction land | Water area |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Status area/km2 | 6238.25 | 13643.25 | 29083 | 7538.5 | 693 | 992.5 |
Simulated area/km2 | 5556.5 | 14327 | 29094 | 7539.5 | 683.5 | 989.5 |
Overlap area/km2 | 5382 | 13180.5 | 28682 | 6469.25 | 598.5 | 767 |
Overlap rate/% | 96.86 | 92 | 98.58 | 85.80 | 87.56 | 77.51 |
Kappa coefficient | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
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