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Journal of Geographical Sciences    2018, Vol. 28 Issue (12) : 1907-1932     DOI: 10.1007/s11442-018-1571-0
Research Articles |
Simulation of future land-use scenarios in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region under the effects of multiple factors
SHAO Jing’an1,2(),DANG Yongfeng3,WANG Wei3,ZHANG Shichao1,2
1. College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047, China
2. Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Environment Remote Sensing in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing 400047, China
3. Academy of Forestry Inventory and Planning, State Forestry Administration, Beijing 100714, China
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Abstract  

Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change (LUC) study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows: (1) The areas under ROC curves of land-use types (LUTs) were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution. (2) The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction. (3) The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.

Keywords land use      CLUE-S model      driving factor      scenario simulation      Three Gorges Reservoir Region     
Fund:Chongqing University Innovation Team for 2016, No.CXTDX201601017; Chongqing Research Program of Basic Research and Frontier Technology, No.cstc2017jcyjB0317
Issue Date: 27 December 2018
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SHAO Jing’an
DANG Yongfeng
WANG Wei
ZHANG Shichao
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SHAO Jing’an,DANG Yongfeng,WANG Wei, et al. Simulation of future land-use scenarios in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region under the effects of multiple factors[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(12): 1907-1932.
URL:  
http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-018-1571-0     OR     http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2018/V28/I12/1907
Figure 1  Administrative division and DEM of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region
Types of scenarios* Paddy field Dryland Woodland Grassland Construction land Water area
The simulation results in 2010 0.6 0.45 0.77 0.35 0.83 0.58
Natural growth Using the same simulation parameters as those in 2010
Food security 0.78 0.8 0.65 0.43 0.7 0.6
Migration-related construction 0.54 0.63 0.75 0.5 0.88 0.58
Ecological conservation 0.56 0.66 0.8 0.75 0.73 0.5
Table 1  The determination of elastic parameters of land-use conversion
Figure 2  Matrix of land-use conversion rules under four scenarios
Note: The numbers from 0 to 5 outside straight line box were paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area, respectively. In the matrix, the means of 0 is not possible, and the means of 1 is feasible. The lines in the matrix mean transfer out, and the columns represent transfer in.
Types of scenarios Description of scenarios
Natural growth Land-use simulation in natural growth scenario will be carried out in the future, using land-use change rate during 2000-2010 as the rate of future land-use change.
Food
security
Under the goal of “cultivated land protection and farmers’ income increase”, we should adhere to the policy of “red line” of cultivated land, avoid the number of cultivated land being controlled due to excessive exploitation and also meet the demand for grain growth. Therefore, the main purpose of setting up the food security scenario is to control the quantity and direction of cultivated land roll out following the actual conditions, and give priority to protecting the original high-quality contiguous cultivated land. Under the premise of grain self-sufficiency in the TGRR, the paddy field will continue to be transformed into dryland by driving practical interests. With the further increase of slope farmland abandonment and the implementation of a new round of policy of returning farmland to woodland, paddy field and dryland near the mountain area gradually transformed into forest and grassland. Thus, in the future, the area of paddy field and dryland in the TGRR will be reduced to some extent. At the same time, the water area may increase in order to improve the irrigation guarantee rate. In addition, according to the division of the main functional areas of Chongqing and Hubei, the woodland in the TGRR will still be effectively protected, and most of the forest areas are restricted development zones. Therefore, the forest land in the TGRR is basically unchanged. After 2010, when the TGRR entered the post immigration period, the growth rate of construction land slowed down, but it still maintained a certain rate of growth.
Immigration-related construction When the TGRR entered the post immigration period, the strategic focus of socio-economic development was to readjust the socio-economic development strategy, build a national ecological economic zone, and reconstruct the complete industrial structure of the TGRR. Therefore, the migration-related construction scenario is set up to meet the basic needs of the socio-economic development in the post immigration period. In this scenario, cultivated land in relatively flat terrain area will be significantly reduced. Woodland has been increased because of the implementation of policy of returning farmland to forest, and the abandonment of cultivated land. The grassland was reduced slightly because of it cultivated to farmland. In addition, with the rapid development of aquaculture in the TGRR, the water surface has increased rapidly.
Ecological conservation In the development strategy of ecological construction, the state has positioned the Three Gorges Reservoir as a strategic reserve of freshwater resources and positioned it as a national environmental protection zone and a key ecological functional reserve. Therefore, the main purpose of setting up ecological conservation scenario is to strictly protect ecological land (e.g., woodland, grassland, water area, etc.). Cultivated land, especially dryland, has been significantly reduced due to the implementation of ecological conservation measures such as returning farmland to forests and forest projects, and woodland and grassland have increased significantly. Because of irrigation and water conservancy facilities construction and aquacultural development, the water area will be relatively increased, but the range is not large. The policy of large-scale development and construction is prohibited, and the expansion rate of construction land is less than that of migration-related construction scenario.
Table 2  Land use demand in different scenarios of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region
Code Paddy field Dryland Woodland Grassland Construction land Water area
Bata coefficient Exp
(B)
Bata coefficient Exp
(B)
Bata coefficient Exp
(B)
Bata coefficient Exp
(B)
Bata coefficient Exp
(B)
Bata coefficient Exp
(B)
sc1gr0 -0.0008 0.9992 -0.0005 0.9995 0.0003 1.0003 0.0003 1.0003 -0.0038 0.9962 -0.003 0.997
sc1gr1 -0.0452 0.9558 0.0217 1.0219
sc1gr2 0.001 1.001 -0.0007 0.999
sc1gr3 -0.001 0.999
sc1gr4 0.1485 1.1601
sc1gr5
sc1gr6 0.00001 1 -0.00001 0.99999 -0.0005 0.9995
sc1gr7 0.00001 1 -0.008 0.992
sc1gr8 -0.00001 1
sc1gr9 -7.95 0.0004 2.4797 11.9375 -29.5009 0
sc1gr10 0.0085 1.0086 0.0131 1.0132 -0.0094 0.9906
sc1gr11 -0.0001 0.9999
sc1gr12 0.0005 1.0005
sc1gr13 0.2594 1.2961
Lyfd0 0.738 2.0918
Lyfd1 1.4647 4.3261 0.2414 1.273
Lyfd2 -0.2814 0.7547 3.1686 23.7745
Lyfd3 0.0616 1.0636 1.0544 2.8702
Lyfd4 0.0952 1.0999
Lyfd5 -0.028 0.9723 0.114 1.121
Constant -1.258 0.2841 -2.8154 0.0599 -6.429 0.0016 -3.838 0.022 -2.269 0.103 0.851 2.342
ROC value 0.91 0.842 0.885 0.903 0.989 0.997
Table 3  Results of auto-logistic regression for different land use types in 2010
2000 2010
Woodland Grassland Water area Construction land Paddy field Dryland Total transferring out area
Woodland 15.94 76.88 28.8 0.97 21.88 144.47
Grassland 195.89 32.02 14.66 0.45 51.57 294.6
Water area 0.02 0.12 0.81 0.04 0.94 1.91
Construction land 0.84 0.35 12.97 0 0 14.15
Paddy field 33.09 1.21 26.98 107.35 0.66 169.3
Dryland 242.78 121.26 51.41 162.42 0.02 577.9
Total transferring into area 472.62 138.87 200.26 314.03 1.49 75.06 1202.33
Table 4  Land-use conversion matrix in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2000-2010 (km2)
Figure 3  Land-use map (a) and simulation map (b) of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region in 2010
Inspection index Paddy field Dryland Woodland Grassland Construction land Water area
Status area/km2 6238.25 13643.25 29083 7538.5 693 992.5
Simulated area/km2 5556.5 14327 29094 7539.5 683.5 989.5
Overlap area/km2 5382 13180.5 28682 6469.25 598.5 767
Overlap rate/% 96.86 92 98.58 85.80 87.56 77.51
Kappa coefficient 0.90 0.92 0.97 0.84 0.85 0.77
Table 5  The examinations of land-use modeling results in 2010
Figure 4  The spatial representation of evolution paths of main land uses under natural growth scenario in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2010-2030
Figure 5  The spatial representation of evolution paths of main land uses under food security scenario in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2010-2030
Figure 6  The spatial representation of evolution paths of main land uses under migration-related construction scenario in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2010-2030
Figure 7  The spatial representation of evolution paths of main land uses under ecological conservation scenario in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2010-2030
Figure 8  Scenario comparison of the main land-use change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region during 2010-2030
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