Air transportation in China: Temporal and spatial evolution and development forecasts

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1557-y

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper analyses the features and dynamic changes of the spatial layout of air transportation utilization among different provinces in China. It makes use of data for the airport throughput and socio-economic development of every province throughout the country in the years 2006 and 2015, and employs airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita and per unit of GDP as measures of regional air transportation utilization, which is significant for refining indicators of regional air transportation scale and comparing against them. It also analyzes the spatial differences of coupling between the regional air transportation utilization indicators and the key influencing factors on regional air transportation demand and utilization, which include per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density. Based on these key influencing factors, it establishes a multiple linear regression model to conduct forecasting of each province’s future airport passenger and cargo throughput as well as throughput growth rates. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) Between 2006 and 2015, every province throughout the country showed a trend of year on year growth in their airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita. Throughput per capita grew fastest in Hebei, with a rise of 780%, and slowest in Beijing, with a rise of 38%. Throughput per capita was relatively high in western and southeastern coastal regions, and relatively low in northern and central regions. Airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP showed growth in provinces with relatively slow economic development, and showed negative growth in provinces with relatively rapid economic development. Throughput per unit of GDP grew fastest in Hebei, rising 265% between 2006 and 2015, and Hunan had the fastest negative growth, with a fall of 44% in the same period. Southwestern regions had relatively high throughput per unit of GDP, while in central, northern, and northeastern regions it was relatively low. (2) Strong correlation exists between airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density. Throughput per capita has positive correlation with per capita GDP and urbanization rate in all regions, and positive correlation with population density in most regions. Meanwhile, there is weak correlation between airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density, with positive correlation in some regions and negative correlation in others. (3) Between 2015 and 2025, it is estimated that all provinces experience a trend of rapid growth in their airport passenger and cargo throughput. Inner Mongolia and Hebei will see the fastest growth, rising 221% and 155%, respectively, while Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hubei will see the slowest growth, with increases of 62%, 63%, and 65%, respectively.

Key words: air transportation utilization, temporal and spatial patterns, influencing factors, development forecasting, China

Xiangli WU, Shan MAN. Air transportation in China: Temporal and spatial evolution and development forecasts[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(10): 1485-1499.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Table 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Table 3

Correlation analysis of regional air transportation utilization and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density in each province"

Province	Airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita			Airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP
Province	GDP per capita	Urbanization rate	Population density	GDP per capita	Urbanization rate	Population density
Beijing	0.964^**	0.972^**	0.986^**	-0.982^**	-0.905^**	-0.948^***
Tianjin	0.952^**	0.939^**	0.967^**	-0.202	-0.219	-0.151
Hebei	0.988^**	0.961^**	0.989^**	0.983^**	0.948^**	0.992^**
Shanxi	0.970^**	0.994^**	0.946^**	0.542	0.690	0.531
Inner Mongolia	0.7220^*	0.694^*	0.690^**	0.144	0.118	0.114
Liaoning	0.998^**	0.989^**	0.939^**	-0.975^**	-0.952^**	-0.961^**
Jilin	0.974^**	0.945^**	0.903^**	0.015	0.408	-0.067
Heilongjiang	0.952^**	0.972^**	-0.021	0.757^*	0.850^**	-0.256
Shanghai	0.961^**	0.039	0.897^**	-0.857^**	-0.141	-0.862^**
Jiangsu	0.992^**	0.969^**	0.954^**	0.122	0.078	0.125
Zhejiang	0.981^**	0.961^**	0.907^**	-0.496	-0.514	-0.576
Anhui	0.996^**	0.989^**	-0.243	0.009	-0.011	0.169
Fujian	0.998^**	0.989^**	0.994^**	-0.871^**	-0.888^**	-0.881^**
Jiangxi	0.998^**	0.993^**	0.980^**	-0.115	-0.110	-0.165
Shandong	0.991^**	0.992^**	0.993^**	-0.542	-0.468	-0.495
Henan	0.978^**	0.980^**	0.459	0.937^**	0.945^**	0.510
Hubei	0.976^**	0.948^**	0.975^**	-0.886^**	-0.928^**	-0.824^**
Hunan	0.984^**	0.978^**	0.977^**	-0.921^**	-0.911^**	-0.894^**
Guangdong	0.995^**	0.965^**	0.952^**	-0.897^**	-0.847^**	-0.901^**
Guangxi	0.992^**	0.987^**	-0.148	-0.850^**	-0.840^**	0.255
Hainan	0.983^**	0.996^**	0.988^**	-0.843^**	-0.771^**	-0.808^**
Chongqing	0.996^**	0.990^**	0.995^**	-0.525	-0.538	-0.532
Sichuan	0.983^**	0.985^**	-0.010	-0.832^**	-0.834^**	0.301
Guizhou	0.994^**	0.867^**	-0.566	-0.209	-0.105	0.610
Yunnan	0.916^**	0.962^**	0.950^**	-0.724^*	-0.722^*	-0.755^**
Tibet	0.969^**	0.920^**	0.958^**	0.073	0.130	0.045
Shaanxi	0.988^**	0.992^**	0.994^**	-0.644^*	-0.620	-0.544
Gansu	0.945^**	0.972^**	0.988^**	0.542	0.625	0.696^*
Qinghai	0.983^**	0.987^**	0.994^**	0.906^**	0.916^**	0.934^**
Ningxia	0.991^**	0.996^**	0.995^**	0.722^*	0.758^*	0.976^**
Xinjiang	0.982^**	0.968^**	0.960^**	0.680^*	0.705^*	0.670^*

Table 3

Table 4

Figure 5

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Year	Value	Airport throughput (Million standard persons)	Airport throughput per capita	Airport throughput per unit of GDP
2006	Highest	Shanghai 742.55	Beijing 3.9	Hainan 110.38
2006	Lowest	Hebei 7.77	Hebei 0.01	Hebei 0.68
2015	Highest	Shanghai 1403.98	Shanghai 5.81	Haian 94.03
2015	Lowest	Tibet 39.248	Hebei 0.10	Hebei 2.47

Province	2025 airport passenger and cargo throughput (10⁶ standard persons)	2015-2025 growth rate	Province	2025 airport passenger and cargo throughput (10⁶ standard persons)	2015-2025 growth rate
Guangdong	237.05	0.7759	Hubei	38.90	0.6539
Shanghai	232.82	0.6583	Tianjin	36.82	1.2010
Beijing	207.13	0.7763	Guangxi	35.06	0.7239
Yunnan	91.66	0.6186	Heilongjiang	31.78	0.7483
Zhejiang	90.42	0.7479	Guizhou	27.92	0.6788
Sichuan	89.68	0.6247	Shanxi	22.45	0.9607
Fujian	77.79	0.8441	Inner Mongolia	20.70	2.2121
Chongqing	70.24	0.9155	Jiangxi	20.36	0.9311
Shandong	69.37	0.7510	Jilin	20.18	0.7494
Shaanxi	67.16	0.8059	Hebei	18.80	1.5541
Jiangsu	64.89	0.7830	Gansu	17.04	0.7272
Hainan	61.75	0.7734	Anhui	15.69	0.7914
Xinjiang	55.28	1.0230	Ningxia	12.28	1.0781
Liaoning	53.89	0.7612	Qinghai	9.78	1.1271
Henan	42.49	0.8399	Tibet	7.4	0.8963
Hunan	39.42	0.7729