Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change:A multi-model ensemble approach

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1538-1

Abstract

Abstract:

Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011-2040 (2020s), 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981-2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool - the AEZ model - was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.

Key words: climate change, rapeseed production, AEZ, Yangtze River Basin

Zhan TIAN, Yinghao JI, Laixiang SUN, Xinliang XU, Dongli FAN, Honglin ZHONG, Zhuoran LIANG, Gunther FICSHER. Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change:A multi-model ensemble approach[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11): 1700-1714.

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Station	Province	Latitude	Longitude
Neijiang	Sichuan	29°35′N	105°5′E
Nanbu	Sichuan	31°21′N	106°3′E
Ankang	Shaanxi	32°43′N	109°2′E
Changde	Hunan	29°3′N	111°41′E
Wuchang	Hubei	30°21′N	114°19′E
Nanchang	Jiangxi	28°33′N	115°57′E
Hefei	Anhui	31°52′N	117°14′E
Gaochun	Jiangsu	31°19′N	118°53′E
Longyou	Zhejiang	29°2′N	119°11′E
Jiaxing	Zhejiang	30°47′N	120°44′E

Cultivar	Original parameters				New parameters
Cultivar	Cya+Cyb	HI	TS1n	TS1x	Cya+Cyb	HI	TS1n	TS1x
Wrs 1	35+105	0.25	1500	2100	55+85	0.25	1100	1600
Wrs 2	40+120	0.25	1600	2400	65+90	0.25	1200	1800
Wrs 3	45+135	0.25	1700	2700	75+95	0.25	1300	1950
Wrs 4	45+150	0.25	1800	3000	85+100	0.25	1400	2100
Srs 1	0+150	0.20	1400	1850	0+105	0.23	1200	2150
Srs 2	0+120	0.21	1500	2100	0+120	0.23	1300	2300
Srs 3	0+135	0.22	1600	2350	0+135	0.23	1400	2400
Srs 4	0+150	0.23	1700	2600	0+150	0.23	1500	2500
New 1					0+150	0.25	1500	2500
New 2					0+165	0.25	1650	2600
New 3					0+180	0.24	1800	2700
New 4					0+195	0.24	2000	2800
New 5					0+210	0.23	2150	2900
New 6					0+225	0.23	2300	3000

Sites	Baseline (kg/ha)	Scenarios	Sig	Significance
		2020s	5.37E-04	***
Neijiang	3252	2050s	1.41E-06	***
		2080s	8.52E-01
		2020s	9.59E-14	***
Nanbu	3338	2050s	7.27E-03	***
		2080s	1.28E-01
		2020s	9.75E-16	***
Ankang	3207	2050s	1.53E-07	***
		2080s	1.04E-01
		2020s	3.19E-04	***
Changde	3317	2050s	9.57E-03	***
		2080s	7.26E-03	***
		2020s	1.05E-01
Wuchang	3125	2050s	7.30E-01
		2080s	5.35E-02	*
		2020s	1.65E-04	***
Nanchang	3309	2050s	2.13E-04	***
		2080s	1.44E-04	***
		2020s	6.54E-02	*
Hefei	2992	2050s	5.69E-06	***
		2080s	1.34E-03	***
		2020s	5.92E-01
Gaochun	2975	2050s	1.71E-02	**
		2080s	1.60E-03	***
		2020s	9.98E-09	***
Longyou	3342	2050s	4.33E-08	***
		2080s	3.06E-03	***
		2020s	1.47E-03	***
Jiaxing	3280	2050s	1.95E-02	**
		2080s	5.04E-01

Scenarios climate models		Upper reaches (mt)	Middle reaches (mt)	Lower reaches (mt)
RCP2.6	GFDL-ESM2M	0.826	2.528	0.507
RCP2.6	NorESM1-M	1.911	2.583	0.385
RCP4.5	GFDL-ESM2M	0.802	3.316	0.927
RCP4.5	NorESM1-M	1.441	2.263	0.223
RCP6.0	GFDL-ESM2M	-0.122	-2.333	-0.217
RCP6.0	NorESM1-M	0.748	1.705	0.241
RCP8.5	GFDL-ESM2M	0.779	0.240	-0.005
RCP8.5	NorESM1-M	1.130	2.810	0.648
Average		0.939	1.639	0.339