Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 1700-1714.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1538-1

• Special Issue: Land system dynamics: Pattern and process • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change:A multi-model ensemble approach

Zhan TIAN1,2,3, Yinghao JI1,2, Laixiang SUN4,5, Xinliang XU7,*(), Dongli FAN1,*(), Honglin ZHONG4, Zhuoran LIANG6, Gunther FICSHER5   

  1. 1. Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 200030, China
    2. Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030, China
    3. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China
    4. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
    5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
    6. Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Hangzhou 310051, China
    7. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2017-03-06 Accepted:2017-09-20 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
  • Contact: Xinliang XU,Dongli FAN E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn;fandl@sit.edu.cn
  • About author:

    Author: TIan Zhan, E-mail: tianz@lreis.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41671113, No.51761135024, No.41601049, No.41475040;China’s National Science & Technology Pillar Program, No.2016YFC0502702

Abstract:

Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011-2040 (2020s), 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981-2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool - the AEZ model - was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.

Key words: climate change, rapeseed production, AEZ, Yangtze River Basin