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Journal of Geographical Sciences    2018, Vol. 28 Issue (11) : 1641-1658     DOI: 10.1007/s11442-018-1534-5
Special Issue: Land system dynamics: Pattern and process |
Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential
YAO Jingtao1,2(),KONG Xiangbin1,2,*()
1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2. Key Laboratory for Agricultural Land Quality, Monitoring and Control, The Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100193, China
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Abstract  

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is not only an efficient method to address climate change problems but also a useful way to improve land productivity. It has been reported by many studies that land-use changes can significantly influence the sequestration of SOC. However, the SOC sequestration potential (SOCP, the difference between the saturation and the existing content of SOC) caused by land-use change, and the effects of land-use optimization on the SOCP are still not well understood. In this research, we modeled the effects of land-use optimization on SOCP in Beijing. We simulated three land-use optimization scenarios (uncontrolled scenario, scale control scenario, and spatial restriction scenario) and assessed their effects on SOCP. The total SOCP (0-20 cm) in Beijing in 2010 was estimated as 23.82 Tg C or 18.27 t C/ha. In the uncontrolled scenario, the built-up land area of Beijing would increase by 951 km2 from 2010 to 2030, and the SOCP would decrease by 1.73 Tg C. In the scale control scenario, the built-up land area would decrease by 25 km2 and the SOCP would increase by 0.07 Tg C from 2010 to 2030. Compared to the uncontrolled scenario, the SOCP in 2030 of Beijing would increase by 0.77 Tg C or 0.64 t C/ha in the spatial restriction scenario. This research provides evidence to guide planning authorities in conducting land-use optimization strategies and estimating their effects on the carbon sequestration function of land-use systems.

Keywords soil organic carbon saturation      carbon sequestration potential      land-use change      modeling      Beijing     
Fund:Key Research Program of Beijing Natural Science Foundation, No.8151001
Corresponding Authors: KONG Xiangbin     E-mail: jingtao_yao@cau.edu.cn;kxb@cau.edu.cn
Issue Date: 21 December 2018
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YAO Jingtao
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YAO Jingtao,KONG Xiangbin. Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11): 1641-1658.
URL:  
http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-018-1534-5     OR     http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2018/V28/I11/1641
Figure 1  Spatial distribution maps of land-use types in Beijing, 1990-2010
Figure 2  Model framework of land-use change simulation
Figure 3  Spatial allocation module of land-use change simulation
Land-use type Observed area
(ha)
Uncontrolled scenario Scale control scenario
Predicted area (ha) Error (%) Predicted area (ha) Error (%)
Built-up land 278464 283675 1.87 278464 -
Agricultural land 444089 420205 -5.38 424308 -4.45
Ecological land 918253 934608 1.78 935716 1.90
NRMSE 0.0278 0.0249
Table 1  Quantity validation of land-use structure simulated in 2010
Figure 4  Kappa values of land-use simulation of Beijing, 2010
Land-use type 2030
Built-up land Agricultural land Ecological land
Land-use type 2010 Built-up land 0.9979 0.0008 0.0013
Agricultural land 0.1822 0.8106 0.0072
Ecological land 0.0163 0.0019 0.9818
Table 2  Transition probabilities of land-use types in the uncontrolled scenario (UCS), 2010-2030
Land-use type 2030
Built-up land Agricultural land Ecological land
Land-use type 2010 Built-up land 0.8712 0.0487 0.0801
Agricultural land 0.0680 0.9238 0.0082
Ecological land 0.0035 0.0019 0.9946
Table 3  Transition probabilities of land-use types in the scale control scenario (SCS), 2010-2030
Figure 5  Land-use structure changes of Beijing in different scenarios
Figure 6  Land-use change simulation results of Beijing under different scenarios
Figure 7  Spatial maps of SOC in Beijing, 2010
Figure 8  Average SOCP in Beijing, 2010 (SOC, soil organic carbon; SOCE, existing SOC level of the top soil (0-20 cm); SOCS, saturation SOC level of the top soil; SOCP, SOC sequestration potential of the top soil)
Figure 9  Effects of land-use changes on SOCP from 2010 to 2030 in different scenarios (SOCP, soil organic carbon sequestration potential of top soil of 0-20 cm)
Figure 10  Average SOCP of Beijing in 2030 in different scenarios (SOCP, soil organic carbon sequestration potential of top soil of 0-20 cm)
Figure A  The average annual temperature and precipitation maps of Beijing from 1990 to 2010
Figure B  Spatial distribution maps of soil properties in Beijing, 2010
Note: The data was developed based on the Second National Soil Survey, which was conducted from the late 1970s to the early 1990s.
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