Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1534-5

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Abstract

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is not only an efficient method to address climate change problems but also a useful way to improve land productivity. It has been reported by many studies that land-use changes can significantly influence the sequestration of SOC. However, the SOC sequestration potential (SOCP, the difference between the saturation and the existing content of SOC) caused by land-use change, and the effects of land-use optimization on the SOCP are still not well understood. In this research, we modeled the effects of land-use optimization on SOCP in Beijing. We simulated three land-use optimization scenarios (uncontrolled scenario, scale control scenario, and spatial restriction scenario) and assessed their effects on SOCP. The total SOCP (0-20 cm) in Beijing in 2010 was estimated as 23.82 Tg C or 18.27 t C/ha. In the uncontrolled scenario, the built-up land area of Beijing would increase by 951 km² from 2010 to 2030, and the SOCP would decrease by 1.73 Tg C. In the scale control scenario, the built-up land area would decrease by 25 km² and the SOCP would increase by 0.07 Tg C from 2010 to 2030. Compared to the uncontrolled scenario, the SOCP in 2030 of Beijing would increase by 0.77 Tg C or 0.64 t C/ha in the spatial restriction scenario. This research provides evidence to guide planning authorities in conducting land-use optimization strategies and estimating their effects on the carbon sequestration function of land-use systems.

Keywords soil organic carbon saturation carbon sequestration potential land-use change modeling Beijing

Fund:Key Research Program of Beijing Natural Science Foundation, No.8151001

Corresponding Authors: KONG Xiangbin E-mail: jingtao_yao@cau.edu.cn;kxb@cau.edu.cn

Issue Date: 21 December 2018

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	YAO Jingtao
	KONG Xiangbin

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YAO Jingtao,KONG Xiangbin. Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11): 1641-1658.

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http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-018-1534-5 OR http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2018/V28/I11/1641

Figure 1 Spatial distribution maps of land-use types in Beijing, 1990-2010

Figure 2 Model framework of land-use change simulation

Figure 3 Spatial allocation module of land-use change simulation

Table 1 Quantity validation of land-use structure simulated in 2010

Figure 4 Kappa values of land-use simulation of Beijing, 2010

Table 2 Transition probabilities of land-use types in the uncontrolled scenario (UCS), 2010-2030

Table 3 Transition probabilities of land-use types in the scale control scenario (SCS), 2010-2030

Figure 5 Land-use structure changes of Beijing in different scenarios

Figure 6 Land-use change simulation results of Beijing under different scenarios

Figure 7 Spatial maps of SOC in Beijing, 2010

Figure 8 Average SOCP in Beijing, 2010 (SOC, soil organic carbon; SOCE, existing SOC level of the top soil (0-20 cm); SOCS, saturation SOC level of the top soil; SOCP, SOC sequestration potential of the top soil)

Figure 9 Effects of land-use changes on SOCP from 2010 to 2030 in different scenarios (SOCP, soil organic carbon sequestration potential of top soil of 0-20 cm)

Figure 10 Average SOCP of Beijing in 2030 in different scenarios (SOCP, soil organic carbon sequestration potential of top soil of 0-20 cm)

Figure A The average annual temperature and precipitation maps of Beijing from 1990 to 2010

Figure B Spatial distribution maps of soil properties in Beijing, 2010
Note: The data was developed based on the Second National Soil Survey, which was conducted from the late 1970s to the early 1990s.

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