Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1534-5

Abstract

Abstract:

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is not only an efficient method to address climate change problems but also a useful way to improve land productivity. It has been reported by many studies that land-use changes can significantly influence the sequestration of SOC. However, the SOC sequestration potential (SOCP, the difference between the saturation and the existing content of SOC) caused by land-use change, and the effects of land-use optimization on the SOCP are still not well understood. In this research, we modeled the effects of land-use optimization on SOCP in Beijing. We simulated three land-use optimization scenarios (uncontrolled scenario, scale control scenario, and spatial restriction scenario) and assessed their effects on SOCP. The total SOCP (0-20 cm) in Beijing in 2010 was estimated as 23.82 Tg C or 18.27 t C/ha. In the uncontrolled scenario, the built-up land area of Beijing would increase by 951 km² from 2010 to 2030, and the SOCP would decrease by 1.73 Tg C. In the scale control scenario, the built-up land area would decrease by 25 km² and the SOCP would increase by 0.07 Tg C from 2010 to 2030. Compared to the uncontrolled scenario, the SOCP in 2030 of Beijing would increase by 0.77 Tg C or 0.64 t C/ha in the spatial restriction scenario. This research provides evidence to guide planning authorities in conducting land-use optimization strategies and estimating their effects on the carbon sequestration function of land-use systems.

Key words: soil organic carbon saturation, carbon sequestration potential, land-use change, modeling, Beijing

Jingtao YAO, Xiangbin KONG. Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11): 1641-1658.

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Land-use type	Observed area (ha)	Uncontrolled scenario		Scale control scenario
Land-use type	Observed area (ha)	Predicted area (ha)	Error (%)	Predicted area (ha)	Error (%)
Built-up land	278464	283675	1.87	278464	-
Agricultural land	444089	420205	-5.38	424308	-4.45
Ecological land	918253	934608	1.78	935716	1.90
NRMSE		0.0278		0.0249

		Land-use type 2030
		Built-up land	Agricultural land	Ecological land
Land-use type 2010	Built-up land	0.9979	0.0008	0.0013
	Agricultural land	0.1822	0.8106	0.0072
	Ecological land	0.0163	0.0019	0.9818

		Land-use type 2030
		Built-up land	Agricultural land	Ecological land
Land-use type 2010	Built-up land	0.8712	0.0487	0.0801
	Agricultural land	0.0680	0.9238	0.0082
	Ecological land	0.0035	0.0019	0.9946