Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 1611-1625.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1532-7

• Special Issue: Land system dynamics: Pattern and process • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000-2050

Tian XIA1,2(), Wenbin WU1,*(), Qingbo ZHOU1, Wenxia TAN2, H. VERBURG Peter3, Peng YANG1, Liming YE4,5   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture / Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    2. Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation, Hubei Province / College of Urban & Environmental Science, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
    3. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Nether-lands
    4. CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security / Institute of Agricultural Re-sources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    5. Department of Geology (WE13), Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
  • Received:2017-03-13 Accepted:2017-09-12 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-12-21
  • Contact: Wenbin WU E-mail:xiatian@mail.ccnu.edu.cn;wuwenbin@caas.cn
  • About author:

    Author: Xia Tian (1981-), Associate Professor, specialized in remote sensing monitoring and simulation of the influence of global changes on agriculture. E-mail: xiatian@mail.ccnu.edu.cn

  • Supported by:
    Agricultural Outstanding Talents Research Foundation of Ministry of Agriculture (MOA);Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics Foundation of MOA No.2015001;Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province No.2016CFB558;The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.CCNU15A05058

Abstract:

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications. Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use, but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking. Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China (NEC) over the period of 2000-2050 using the CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security (ESS), food security (FSS) and comprehensive development (CDS). The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005. Overall, the accuracy of the CLUE-S model was evaluated at 82.5%. Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain, forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains, while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands. Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan, the ecological service value (ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050. The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios. Thus, CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection, especially for the wetlands, which should be given higher priority for future development. The issue of coordination is also critical in future development. The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.

Key words: Northeast China, land use, spatio-temporal change, scenario, ecosystem service