Influences of environmental changes on water storage variations in Central Asia

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1517-6

Abstract

Abstract:

The spatio-temporal pattern of the global water resource has significantly changed with climate change and intensified human activities. The regional economy and ecological environment are highly affected by terrestrial water storage (TWS), especially in arid areas. To investigate the variation of TWS and its influencing factors under changing environments, the response relationships between TWS and changing environments (climate change and human activities) in Central Asia have been analyzed based on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, Climatic Research Unit (CRU) climate data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data products (MOD16A2, MOD13A3 and MCD12Q1) from 2003 to 2013. The slope and Pearson correlation analysis methods were used. Results indicate that: (1) TWS in about 77 % of the study area has decreased from 2003 to 2013. The total change volume of TWS is about 2915.6 × 10⁸m³. The areas of decreased TWS are mainly distributed in the middle of Central Asia, while the areas of increased TWS are concentrated in the middle-altitude regions of the Kazakhstan hills and Tarim Basin. (2) TWS in about 5.91% of areas, mainly distributed in the mountain and piedmont zones, is significantly positively correlated with precipitation, while only 3.78% of areas show significant correlation between TWS and temperature. If the response time was delayed by three months, there would be a very good correlation between temperature and TWS. (3) There is a significantly positive relationship between TWS and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in 13.35% of the study area. (4) The area of significantly positive correlation between TWS and evapotranspiration is about 31.87%, mainly situated in mountainous areas and northwestern Kazakhstan. The reduction of regional TWS is related to precipitation more than evaporation. Increasing farmland area may explain why some areas show increasing precipitation and decreasing evapotranspiration. (5) The influences of land use on TWS are still not very clear. This study could provide scientific data useful for the estimation of changes in TWS with climate change and human activities.

Key words: terrestrial water storage, Central Asia, climate change, land use

Weijie HU, Hailong LIU, Anming BAO, M. El-Tantawi Attia. Influences of environmental changes on water storage variations in Central Asia[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(7): 985-1000.

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Data name	Temporal resolution	Spatial resolution
GRACE	Monthly	1° × 1°
CRU	Monthly	0.5° × 0.5°
MOD16A2	Monthly	1km × 1km
MOD13A3	Monthly	1km × 1km
MCD12Q1	Yearly	500 m × 500 m
DEM		90 m × 90 m

Land use type	Percentage (%）	Changed area (×10⁴km²)	Correlation coefficients
Water	8.05	-2.20	0.81
Evergreen needle-leaf forest	0.21	2.49	-0.76
Evergreen broad-leaf forest	0.02	-0.06	0.56
Deciduous needle-leaf forest	0.05	-0.22	0.75
Deciduous broad-leaf forest	0.17	0.25	-0.62
Shrub land	6.39	-8.19	0.37
Grassland	47.37	8.36	-0.36
Cereal crops	6.10	-5.44	0.55
Broad-leaf crops	1.08	2.32	-0.58
Urban and built-up area	0.34	0.0005	-0.50
Snow and ice	0.70	1.23	-0.27
Bare land	29.44	1.66	-0.15
Unclassified region	0.09	-0.19	0.40