Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950-2050

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1513-x

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper uses data for the period 1950-2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area’s population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015-2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under consideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban “coldspots.” Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.

Key words: Belt and Road, population, urbanization, population migration, spatio-temporal evolution, China

Haimeng LIU, Chuanglin FANG, Yi MIAO, Haitao MA, Qiang ZHANG, Qiang ZHOU. Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950-2050[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(7): 919-936.

Figures/Tables 16

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Table 2

Results of cluster analysis of population and urbanization of Belt and Road countries"

Group	Country names	International distribution and features
1	Armenia, Montenegro, Poland, Czech Republic, Italy Austria, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Belarus, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Lebanon	Countries are mainly European and mainly located in the northwest part of the study area. They have relatively high urban populations, low population growth rates, high population densities and average total populations.
2	Slovakia, Macedonia, Thailand, Slovenia, Albania, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Georgia	Countries are mainly in Europe, with a small number located on the east coast of the Black Sea and in SE Asia. They have similar features to the first group, but low urban populations as a percentage of their totals and relatively small populations.
3	Tunisia, Cyprus, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Indonesia	Countries are mainly in Central Asia and North Africa, with one located in the Malay islands. They have relatively high population growth rates and average urban population levels.
4	Kuwait, Oman, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Mongolia, Malaysia, Algeria, Iran, Brunei, Turkey, Jordan, Libya, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE	Countries are mainly in West Asia and North Africa. They have relatively high urban population levels, population densities, net migration rates and population growth rates.
5	Singapore	Located on the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula. It has very high urban population, population density and net migration rate.
6	China, India	Located in East Asia and South Asia, respectively. They have very large total populations, high population densities and high outward migration.
7	Nepal, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Uzbekistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Timor-Leste, Egypt, Philippines, Pakistan, Maldives	Scattered distribution. Relatively low population densities, urban populations and net migration rates, but relatively high population growth.

Table 2

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure 12

Figure 13

Figure 14

References 28

[1]	Chen M, Ye C, Zhou Y, 2014. Comments on Mulligan’s “Revisiting the urbanization curve”.Cities, 41(41): S54-S56. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2013.10.006
[2]	Chen W G, Guo Q, 2016. China’s investment potential estimation and location selection of The Belt and Road countries.Macroeconomics, (9): 148-161. (in Chinese)
[3]	Cheng H, Sun J L, Dong S Cet al., 2016. Informatization patterns and strategy of The Belt and Road.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 31(6): 656-662. (in Chinese)
[4]	Fan Z B, Zhang R H, Liu X Tet al., 2016. China’s outward FDI efficiency along the Belt and Road: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model.China Agricultural Economic Review, 8(3): 455-479. doi: 10.1108/CAER-11-2015-0158
[5]	Fang C, Liu H, Li Get al., 2015. Estimating the impact of urbanization on air quality in China using spatial regression models.Sustainability, 7(11): 15570-15592. doi: 10.3390/su71115570
[6]	Ferdinand P, 2016. Westward ho-the China dream and ‘One Belt, One Road’: Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping.International Affairs, 92(4): 941-957. doi: 10.1111/inta.2016.92.issue-4
[7]	Guo J E, Wang S B, Xia B, 2015. Study on the current situation and path of energy cooperation in the Silk Road Economic Belt.Economic Review, (3): 88-92. (in Chinese)
[8]	Hennig B D, 2013. Rediscovering the World: Map Transformations of Human and Physical Space. Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-34848-8
[9]	Hong P, 2016. Jointly Building the ‘Belt and Road’ towards the Sustainable Development Goals. New York: Social Science Electronic Publishing. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2812893
[10]	Howard K W F, Howard K K, 2016. The new “Silk Road Economic Belt” as a threat to the sustainable management of Central Asia’s transboundary water resources.Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(11): 1-12. doi: 10.1007/s12665-015-4873-x
[11]	Li Z H, Wang J L, Zhao Z Pet al., 2014. Eco-environment patterns and ecologycal civilization modes in the Silk Road Economic Zone.Resources Science, 36(12): 2476-2482. (in Chinese)
[12]	Liang Q, Wu X S, 2016. Study on influencing factors of bilateral trade among the countries along the Belt and Road: An empirical test based on the expansion gravity equation. Economist, (12): 69-77. (in Chinese)
[13]	Liu H M, Fang C L, Ren Y F, 2016. Logistics industry and cross-border electric business of Sino-Kazakhstan cooperation demonstration zone in Silk Road Economic Belt. Arid Land Geography, 39(5): 951-958. (in Chinese)
[14]	Liu H Z, Cai X S, 2016. Study on bilateral trade costs of China with the Belt and Road countries.Economist, (7): 92-100. (in Chinese)
[15]	Liu W D, 2015. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography, 34(5): 538-544. (in Chinese)
[16]	Liu W D, Tian J, Ou X, 2017. Strategic Studies on the Belt and Road. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)
[17]	Pan J H, Hu Y X, Dong X F, 2016. Spatial-temporal evolution of economic disparity for the Silk Road Economic Zone.Economic Geography, 36(1): 10-17. (in Chinese)
[18]	Song G, Yang J, 2016. Measuring the spatiotemporal variation and evolution of transport network of China’s megaregions. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(10): 1497-1516. doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1340-x
[19]	Sun Z L, Li X D, 2016. Agricultural trade situation and agricultural economic trade cooperation prospects between countries along The Belt and The Road and China. Intertrade, (11): 38-42. (in Chinese)
[20]	Tao L, Yuan J, Q I, Cao Get al., 2015. Spatial patterns, driving forces, and urbanization effects of China’s internal migration: County-level analysis based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(2): 236-256. doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1165-z
[21]	Tian Z, Xu D M, 2016. The investment efficiency and countermeasures of The Belt and Road along the country.Economic Review, (5): 84-89. (in Chinese)
[22]	Yang D L, Wang J X, Li X L, 2016. Report on the evaluation of development level of information infrastructure of countries along The Belt and Road.E-Government, (9): 2-15. (in Chinese)
[23]	Zhang J, Lei H, Wang Y Fet al., 2016. Comparision of transportation infrastructure investment efficiency of countries along The Belt and Road.Statistics & Decision, (19): 61-63. (in Chinese)
[24]	Zhao M, 2016. The Belt and Road Initiative and its implications for China-Europe relations.The International Spectator, 51(4): 109-118. doi: 10.1080/03932729.2016.1235819
[25]	Zhao M Y, Dong S C, Wang Z,et al.2016. Assessment of countries’ security situation along the Belt and Road and countermeasures.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 31: 689-696. (in Chinese)
[26]	Zeng X H, 2016. The geopolitical imaginations of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and regional cooperation. World Economics and Politics,(1): 46-71, 157-158. (in Chinese)
[27]	Zhu Y J, 2016. Pay attention to the religion culture of countries along The Belt and Road: The necessary evidence of Chinese enterprises “Going Out”.Chinese Religion, (9): 42-43. (in Chinese)
[28]	Zou J L, Liu W D, 2016. Trade network of China and counties along “Belt and Road Initiative” areas from 2001 to 2013. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 36(11): 1629-1636. (in Chinese)