Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (7): 900-918.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1512-y
• Special Issue: Geopolitical Environment Simulation on the Belt and Road Region • Previous Articles Next Articles
Suocheng DONG1,2(), Yang YANG1,2, Fujia LI1,*(
), Hao CHENG1, Jingnan LI1,2, Alexey BILGAEV1,2, Zehong LI1,2, Yu LI1,2
Received:
2017-09-08
Online:
2018-07-20
Published:
2018-12-28
Contact:
Fujia LI
E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;lifujia2003@163.com
About author:
Author: Dong Suocheng (1962-), Professor, specialized in regional ecological economics, environmental economics and green development. E-mail:
Supported by:
Suocheng DONG, Yang YANG, Fujia LI, Hao CHENG, Jingnan LI, Alexey BILGAEV, Zehong LI, Yu LI. An evaluation of the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(7): 900-918.
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Table 1
Comprehensive index system for evaluating economic, social, and ecological risks from China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and their normalized weights"
Object | Standard | Sub-standard | Index | Weight | Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Comprehensive economic- social- ecological risk | Economic risk | Economic development | GDP per capita | 0.0883 | Negative indices |
Growth rate of GDP | 0.0394 | ||||
Passenger capacity | Population density | 0.0743 | |||
Growth rate of population | 0.0216 | ||||
Transportation infrastructure | Railway network density | 0.0282 | |||
Attractive power | Tourism resources | 0.0120 | |||
Energy resources | 0.0120 | ||||
Mineral resources | 0.0120 | ||||
Education resources | 0.0120 | ||||
Social risk | Government and residential support | Government and residential support for high-speed railway construction | 0.1015 | ||
Social stability | Unemployment rate | 0.0985 | Positive indices | ||
Ecological risk | Disaster | Area of forest fire per 10,000 km2 | 0.1048 | ||
Number of geologic hazards | 0.1497 | ||||
Ecological destruction | Forest coverage rate | 0.0934 | |||
Number of natural reserves | 0.0751 | ||||
Biodiversity | 0.0770 |
Table 2
The magnitude of economic, social, and ecological risks from China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction"
Research units | EN | ED | PC | TI | AP | S | SGP | ST | EC | D | EDT | CESE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mongolia | 0.2237 | 0.1002 | 0.0743 | 0.0282 | 0.0211 | 0.1662 | 0.0677 | 0.0985 | 0.3203 | 0.2545 | 0.0658 | 0.7102 |
Republic of Buryatia | 0.2498 | 0.1158 | 0.0879 | 0.0273 | 0.0187 | 0.1422 | 0.1015 | 0.0407 | 0.2191 | 0.0733 | 0.1459 | 0.6111 |
Zabaykalsky Krai | 0.2672 | 0.1255 | 0.0944 | 0.0266 | 0.0207 | 0.1586 | 0.1015 | 0.0571 | 0.1765 | 0.0507 | 0.1259 | 0.6024 |
Irkutsk Oblast | 0.2122 | 0.0744 | 0.0920 | 0.0274 | 0.0183 | 0.1184 | 0.0677 | 0.0507 | 0.1660 | 0.0213 | 0.1447 | 0.4966 |
Heilongjiang | 0.2224 | 0.0753 | 0.0913 | 0.0236 | 0.0323 | 0.0500 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.1700 | 0.0000 | 0.1700 | 0.4425 |
Inner Mongolia | 0.1738 | 0.0367 | 0.0882 | 0.0249 | 0.0241 | 0.0371 | 0.0000 | 0.0371 | 0.1390 | 0.0171 | 0.1219 | 0.3499 |
Hebei | 0.1907 | 0.0712 | 0.0644 | 0.0152 | 0.0399 | 0.0355 | 0.0000 | 0.0355 | 0.0746 | 0.0171 | 0.0576 | 0.3009 |
Beijing | 0.0467 | 0.0023 | 0.0097 | 0.0000 | 0.0347 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1144 | 0.0748 | 0.0396 | 0.1611 |
Table 3
Categories of economic, social, ecological, and comprehensive risks from China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction"
Risk category | Economic risk | Social risk | Ecological risk | Comprehensive risk |
---|---|---|---|---|
Low risk | [0.0467, 0.1202] | [0, 0.0554] | [0.0746, 0.1565] | [0.1611, 0.3442] |
Medium risk | (0.1202, 0.1937] | (0.0554, 0.1108] | (0.1565, 0.2384] | (0.3442, 0.5272) |
High risk | (0.1937, 0.2672] | (0.1108, 0.1662] | (0.2384, 0.3203] | (0.5272, 0.7102] |
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