Investigating long-term trends of climate change and their spatial variations caused by regional and local environments through data mining

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1506-9

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change is a global phenomenon but is modified by regional and local environmental conditions. Moreover, climate change exhibits remarkable cyclical oscillations and disturbances, which often mask and distort the long-term trends of climate change we would like to identify. Inspired by recent advancements in data mining, we experimented with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) technique to extract long-term change trends from climate data. We applied GIS elevation model to construct 3D EMD trend surface to visualize spatial variations of climate change over regions and biomes. We then computed various time-series similarity measures and plot them to examine spatial patterns across meteorological stations. We conducted a case study in Inner Mongolia based on daily records of precipitation and temperature at 45 meteorological stations from 1959 to 2010. The EMD curves effectively illustrated the long-term trends of climate change. The EMD 3D surfaces revealed regional variations of climate change, while the EMD similarity plots disclosed cross-station deviations. In brief, the change trends of temperature were significantly different from those of precipitation. Noticeable regional patterns and local disturbances of the changes in both temperature and precipitation were identified. The trends of change were modified by regional and local topographies and land covers.

Key words: climate change, empirical mode decomposition, Inner Mongolia, similarity plot, trend surface

Yichun XIE, Yang ZHANG, Hai LAN, Lishen MAO, Shi ZENG, Yulu CHEN. Investigating long-term trends of climate change and their spatial variations caused by regional and local environments through data mining[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(6): 802-818.

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Precipitation	RMSE	Temperature	RMSE
Chebyshev	0.4249	Chebyshev	0.3008
City block	0.3870	City block	0.2600
Correlation	0.5956	Correlation	0.2896
Cosine	0.3898	Cosine	0.2264
Euclidean distance (E.D.)	0.4170	Euclidean distance (E.D.)	0.2654
Spearman	0.5912	Spearman	0.2805
Standardized E.D.	0.4413	Standardized E.D.	0.3042