Spatiotemporal changes in Chinese land circulation between 2003 and 2013

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1500-2

Abstract

Abstract:

Land circulation is an important measure that can be utilized to enable agricultural management at a moderate scale. It is therefore imperative to explore spatiotemporal changes in land circulation and the factors that drive these variations in order to maintain and increase the vitality of the land rental market. An initial analysis of spatiotemporal patterns in land circulation is presented in this study on the basis of data from 169,511 farm households between 2003 and 2013. The rural fixed observation point system advocated by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture was utilized for this analysis, and Heckman two-stage models were developed and estimated in order to identify the drivers of regional differences in land circulation at the national scale and at the levels of different terrains. The results of this study show that the rate of land circulation in China rose from 15.09% to 25.1% over the course of the study period, an average rate of 0.8%. More specifically, data show that the rate of land circulation in the south of China has been higher than in the north, that the average land rental payment was 4256.13 yuan per ha, and that 55.05% of households did not pay such a fee during the land circulation process. In contrast, the average rent obtained was 3648.45 yuan per ha nationally even though 52.63% of households did not obtain any payments from their tenants. The results show that land quality, geographic location, transaction costs, and household characteristics have significantly affected land circulation in different regions of China. Specifically, the marginal effects of land quality and geographic location were larger in the plain regions, while transaction cost was the key factor influencing land circulation in the hilly and mountainous regions. The signal identified in this study, rent-free land circulation, is indicative of a mismatch that has led to the marginalization of mountainous regions and higher transaction costs that have reduced the potential value of land resources. Thus, as the opportunity cost of farming continues to rise across China, the depreciation of land assets will become irreversible and the phenomenon of land abandonment will become increasingly prevalent in hilly and mountainous regions in the future. The transaction costs associated with the land rental market should be reduced to mitigate these effects by establishing land circulation intermediaries at the township level, and the critical issues of land abandonment and poverty reduction in hilly and mountainous regions should arouse more attention.

Key words: land circulation, rent-free, driving factors, Heckman two-stage model, China

Yahui WANG, Xiubin LI, Liangjie XIN, Minghong TAN, Min JIANG. Spatiotemporal changes in Chinese land circulation between 2003 and 2013[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(6): 707-724.

Figures/Tables 10

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Definitions and statistical descriptions of the variables used in this study"

Variables	Definitions	2003		2013
Variables	Definitions	Mean	S.D	Mean	S.D
Dependent variable
First stage model: Land rented-out	Yes = 1, otherwise = 0	0.12	0.24	0.17	0.25
Second stage model: Rent per unit area	Rent obtained (yuan/ha)	1792.5	6565.8	4097.4	8600.3
Independent variables
Land quality	Yield per ha larger than the average in village = 1, otherwise = 0	0.51	0.67	0.57	0.71
Geographic location
Suburban region	Located in the suburbs (yes = 1, otherwise = 0)	0.16	0.36	0.16	0.37
Economic level	Lowest level = 1, medium level = 3, highest level = 5	2.81	0.88	2.82	0.87
Transaction costs
Number of land parcels	Number of the plots in cultivation (plots)	4.47	4.98	4.11	4.92
Land circulation intermediary	Circulating intermediary in town (yes = 1, otherwise = 0)	0.11	0.33	0.18	0.43
Household characteristics
Rate of non-agricultural income	Rate of non-agricultural income in household income (%)	58.21	38.29	76.98	42.22
Age of family head	Age of the household head (years)	50.12	10.87	52.46	9.25
Physical condition of family head	No ability to work = 1, average level = 3, favorable level = 5	4.33	2.21	4.20	1.90
Number of labor force	Number of people in the labors from 16 years old to 65 years old	2.17	1.02	2.22	1.08
Occupation	Agriculture = 1, otherwise = 0	0.88	0.31	0.86	0.32
Total value of productive assets	Total value of productive assets (yuan)	5913.7	2819.1	9007.3	3285.2
Village characteristics
Per capita income in village	Total income divided by total population in village (yuan/year)	2719.3	2799.2	4789.3	4319.8
Number of enterprises in village	Number of non-agricultural enterprises	3.27	2.19	5.83	2.24
Rate of population outflow	Outflow population number divided by total people (%)	21.00	18.00	33.12	19.00
Financial constraints	Has get a loan (yes = 1, otherwise = 0)	0.05	0.21	0.09	0.29

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Table 3

Table 4

Figure 4

Table 5

Table 6

Heckman two-stage estimation results for land circulation in regions characterized by different terrains"

Variables	Plain regions		Hilly regions		Mountainous regions
Variables	First stage model: Renting-out land = 1, no = 0	Second stage model: Log(1 + land rent per ha)	First stage model: Renting-out land = 1, no = 0	Second stage model: Log(1 + land rent per ha)	First stage model: Renting-out land = 1, no = 0	Second stage model: Log(1 + land rent per ha)
Land quality	-0.172^***	0.324^***	-0.133^***	0.662^***	-0.055^***	0.123
Geographical location
Suburban region	-0.304^***	0.473	-0.053^**	0.510^***	-0.233^***	-0.177
Economic level	-0.060^***	-0.092	-0.004	0.418^***	0.021^*	0.331^***
Transaction costs
Number of land parcels	-0.138^***	-0.073^*	-0.232^***	-0.225^**	-0.246^***	-0.206^**
Land circulation intermediary	0.042^***	0.051^**	0.027^***	0.213^***	0.009^**	0.343^***
Household characteristics
Rate of non-agricultural income	0.233^***	0.074	0.155^***	0.019^***	0.173^***	-0.065
Age of family head	0.009	-	0.086	-	0.372^***	-
Physical condition of family head	-0.073^***	-	-0.057^***	-	-0.004	-
Number of labor force	0.003	0.142^***	-0.029^***	0.112	-0.047^***	-0.009
Occupation	-0.212^***	0.193	-0.241^***	0.911^***	-0.156^***	0.078
Log(total value of productive assets)	-0.002	0.015	0.008^**	-0.092^***	-0.019^***	-0.033^*
Village characteristics
Log(per capita income in village)	0.093^***	0.294^***	0.086^***	-0.352^*	0.102^***	0.493^***
Number of enterprises in village	0.004^***	-0.006	-0.004^***	0.017^***	0.004^***	0.001
Rate of population outflow	0.331^***	-0.073	0.321^***	-5.664^***	0.058	-2.171^***
Financial constraints	0.013	0.183	0.183^***	-0.901	0.013	0.212
Year dummies	Yes		Yes		Yes
Regional dummies	Yes		Yes		Yes
Lambda (λ)	-0.454^*		-6.155^***		-1.221^*
Wald chi-squared (32)	525.75		553.65		618.01
Probability greater than chi-squared	0.0000		0.0000		0.0000
Number of observations	37,338		41,322		51,792

Table 6

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Year	Total number surveyed	Renting-in land	Renting-out land
2003	16,905	1231	1637
2004	16,668	1233	1324
2005	17,331	1126	1402
2006	16,871	1126	1639
2007	14,356	1211	1384
2008	15,378	1033	1764
2009	15,399	1132	1823
2010	15,392	1509	2104
2011	13,432	1641	1905
2012	14,127	1838	2231
2013	13,652	2050	2184
Total	169,511	15,130	19,397

Region	No land rent		Land rent (≤7500 yuan/ha)		Land rent (7500- 15,000 yuan/ha)		Land rent (≥15,000 yuan/ha)
Region	Number of households	Rate (%)	Number of households	Rate (%)	Number of households	Rate (%)	Number of households	Rate (%)
Total samples	6169	55.05	3546	31.64	590	5.26	875	7.81
Plain	1579	50.33	1157	36.89	133	18.81	268	8.54
Hilly	2613	51.68	1851	36.61	304	6.01	288	4.51
Mountainous	1977	68.67	494	17.16	172	5.97	236	8.19

Region	No land rent		Land rent (≤7500 yuan/ha)		Land rent (7500- 15,000 yuan/ha)		Land rent (≥15,000 yuan/ha)
Region	Number of households	Rate (%)	Number of households	Rate (%)	Number of households	Rate (%)	Number of households	Rate (%)
Total samples	10,209	52.63	6440	33.20	1680	8.66	927	4.78
Plain	2363	40.87	2257	39.03	794	13.73	368	6.36
Hilly	4554	57.52	2929	36.99	326	4.12	108	1.36
Mountainous	3077	56.96	1227	22.71	672	12.44	426	7.88

Variable	First stage model: Renting-out land = 1, otherwise = 0		Second stage model: Log (1 + land rent per ha)
Variable	B	T-value	B	T-value
Land quality	-0.093^***	-8.92	0.309^***	6.17
Geographical location
Suburban region	-0.147^***	-10.23	0.392^***	4.24
Economic level	-0.012^*	-1.78	0.327^***	8.03
Transaction costs
Number of land parcels	-0.245^**	-2.18	-0.029^***	2.89
Land circulation intermediary	0.039^***	8.11	0.064^***	7.82
Household characteristics
Rate of non-agricultural income	0.179^***	13.31	0.363	1.08
Age of family head	0.139^***	4.29	-	-
Physical condition of family head	-0.042^***	-7.13	-	-
Number of labor force	-0.022^***	-4.01	0.073^**	2.47
Occupation	-0.212^***	-13.31	0.344^***	3.02
Log(total value of productive assets)	-0.004^**	-2.13	-0.005^***	-3.73
Village characteristics
Log(per capita income in village)	0.101^***	8.37	0.265^***	3.29
Number of enterprises in village	0.001^***	3.90	0.003	1.64
Rate of population outflow	0.560^***	17.82	-0.167^***	-13.12
Financial constraints	0.090^***	5.21	-0.060	-0.51
Year dummies	Yes
Regional dummies	Yes
Lambda (λ)	-2.87^***
Wald chi-squared (32)	1336.83
Probability greater than chi-squared	0.0000
Number of observations	130,452