Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982-2013

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1493-x

Abstract

Abstract:

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data and explored the effects of climate factors and human activities on vegetation. The results indicate that NDVI has slight upward trend in the Mongolian Plateau over the last 32 years. The area in which NDVI increased was much larger than that in which it decreased. Increased NDVI was primarily distributed in the southern part of the plateau, especially in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia. Improvement in the vegetative cover is predicted for a larger area compared to that in which degradation is predicted based on Hurst exponent analysis. The NDVI-indicated vegetation growth in the Mongolian Plateau is a combined result of climate variations and human activities. Specifically, the precipitation has been the dominant factor and the recent human effort in protecting the ecological environments has left readily detectable imprints in the NDVI data series.

Key words: remote sensing, GIMMS NDVI3g, vegetation dynamic trend, Hurst exponent, residual trend analysis, Mongolian Plateau

Siqin TONG, Jiquan ZHANG, Yuhai BAO, Quan LAI, Xiao LIAN, Na LI, Yongbin BAO. Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982-2013[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(5): 595-610.

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Vegetation types	NDVI range	NDVI average	Sen’s slope/yr	Mean for H
Broadleaf forest	0.59-0.66	0.63	0.0002	0.419
Coniferous forest	0.52-0.58	0.56	0.0006	0.412
Meadow	0.51-0.56	0.54	0.0004	0.426
Shrub	0.43-0.48	0.45	0.0005	0.447
Cropland	0.37-0.43	0.39	0.0007	0.440
Steppe	0.32-0.39	0.35	0.0004	0.404
Sandy land	0.28-0.35	0.31	0.0005	0.437
Alpine grassland	0.27-0.31	0.28	0.0005	0.418
Desert	0.13-0.16	0.14	0.0001	0.389

	-20 < Zc < -1.96	1.96 < Zc < 20
H<0.5	Improvement	Degradation
H>0.5	Consistent degradation	Consistent improvement