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Journal of Geographical Sciences    2018, Vol. 28 Issue (5) : 595-610     DOI: 10.1007/s11442-018-1493-x
Research Articles |
Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982-2013
TONG Siqin1,2,3(),ZHANG Jiquan1,2(),BAO Yuhai3,4,LAI Quan1,3,4,LIAN Xiao5,LI Na1,BAO Yongbin1
1. School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
2. Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, China
3. College of Geography, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China
4. Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China
5. Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba University, Ibaraki 305, Japan
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Abstract  

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data and explored the effects of climate factors and human activities on vegetation. The results indicate that NDVI has slight upward trend in the Mongolian Plateau over the last 32 years. The area in which NDVI increased was much larger than that in which it decreased. Increased NDVI was primarily distributed in the southern part of the plateau, especially in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia. Improvement in the vegetative cover is predicted for a larger area compared to that in which degradation is predicted based on Hurst exponent analysis. The NDVI-indicated vegetation growth in the Mongolian Plateau is a combined result of climate variations and human activities. Specifically, the precipitation has been the dominant factor and the recent human effort in protecting the ecological environments has left readily detectable imprints in the NDVI data series.

Keywords remote sensing      GIMMS NDVI3g      vegetation dynamic trend      Hurst exponent      residual trend analysis      Mongolian Plateau     
Fund:National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2013BAK05B01, No.2013BAK05B02;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571491, No.61631011;The Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities, No.B16011
Issue Date: 31 March 2018
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TONG Siqin
ZHANG Jiquan
BAO Yuhai
LAI Quan
LIAN Xiao
LI Na
BAO Yongbin
Cite this article:   
TONG Siqin,ZHANG Jiquan,BAO Yuhai, et al. Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982-2013[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(5): 595-610.
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http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-018-1493-x     OR     http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2018/V28/I5/595
Figure 1  Geographic characteristics of the Mongolian Plateau: Elevation (a), vegetation types (b), annual mean precipitation (c), and temperature (d)
Figure 2  Annual mean NDVI across the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013
Figure 3  Annual average NDVI values for the Mongolian Plateau (MP), Inner Mongolia (IM), and Mongolia (MGL) from 1982-2003
Vegetation types NDVI range NDVI average Sen’s slope/yr Mean for H
Broadleaf forest 0.59-0.66 0.63 0.0002 0.419
Coniferous forest 0.52-0.58 0.56 0.0006 0.412
Meadow 0.51-0.56 0.54 0.0004 0.426
Shrub 0.43-0.48 0.45 0.0005 0.447
Cropland 0.37-0.43 0.39 0.0007 0.440
Steppe 0.32-0.39 0.35 0.0004 0.404
Sandy land 0.28-0.35 0.31 0.0005 0.437
Alpine grassland 0.27-0.31 0.28 0.0005 0.418
Desert 0.13-0.16 0.14 0.0001 0.389
Table 1  Annual average NDVI, slope, and Hurst value for each vegetation type in the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013
Figure 4  Spatial distribution of NDVI trends on the Mongolian Plateau from1982-2013
Figure 5  Spatial correlation between NDVI and precipitation from 1982-2013
Figure 6  Spatial correlation between NDVI and temperature from 1982-2013
Figure 7  Spatial distribution of residual NDVI trends on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013
Figure 8  Spatial distribution of the Hurst exponent for the annual average NDVI time series on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013. Values over 0.5 suggest a continuation in the past trend, while values below 0.5 suggest a reversal in the past trend
-20 < Zc < -1.96 1.96 < Zc < 20
H<0.5 Improvement Degradation
H>0.5 Consistent degradation Consistent improvement
Table 2  Parameters for predicted future vegetation change trends
Figure 9  Predicted vegetation changing trends on the Mongolian Plateau
Figure 10  Dynamic trends of precipitation (a), temperature (b), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (c) on the Mongolian Plateau from1982-2013
Figure 11  Statistics for livestock numbers and cumulative afforested area in Ordos (a) and Tongliao (b), Inner Mongolia, from 2000-2013
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