Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982-2013

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1493-x

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Abstract

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data and explored the effects of climate factors and human activities on vegetation. The results indicate that NDVI has slight upward trend in the Mongolian Plateau over the last 32 years. The area in which NDVI increased was much larger than that in which it decreased. Increased NDVI was primarily distributed in the southern part of the plateau, especially in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia. Improvement in the vegetative cover is predicted for a larger area compared to that in which degradation is predicted based on Hurst exponent analysis. The NDVI-indicated vegetation growth in the Mongolian Plateau is a combined result of climate variations and human activities. Specifically, the precipitation has been the dominant factor and the recent human effort in protecting the ecological environments has left readily detectable imprints in the NDVI data series.

Keywords remote sensing GIMMS NDVI3g vegetation dynamic trend Hurst exponent residual trend analysis Mongolian Plateau

Fund:National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2013BAK05B01, No.2013BAK05B02;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571491, No.61631011;The Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities, No.B16011

Issue Date: 31 March 2018

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	TONG Siqin
	ZHANG Jiquan
	BAO Yuhai
	LAI Quan
	LIAN Xiao
	LI Na
	BAO Yongbin

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TONG Siqin,ZHANG Jiquan,BAO Yuhai, et al. Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982-2013[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(5): 595-610.

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http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-018-1493-x OR http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2018/V28/I5/595

Figure 1 Geographic characteristics of the Mongolian Plateau: Elevation (a), vegetation types (b), annual mean precipitation (c), and temperature (d)

Figure 2 Annual mean NDVI across the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013

Figure 3 Annual average NDVI values for the Mongolian Plateau (MP), Inner Mongolia (IM), and Mongolia (MGL) from 1982-2003

Table 1 Annual average NDVI, slope, and Hurst value for each vegetation type in the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013

Figure 4 Spatial distribution of NDVI trends on the Mongolian Plateau from1982-2013

Figure 5 Spatial correlation between NDVI and precipitation from 1982-2013

Figure 6 Spatial correlation between NDVI and temperature from 1982-2013

Figure 7 Spatial distribution of residual NDVI trends on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of the Hurst exponent for the annual average NDVI time series on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982-2013. Values over 0.5 suggest a continuation in the past trend, while values below 0.5 suggest a reversal in the past trend

Table 2 Parameters for predicted future vegetation change trends

Figure 9 Predicted vegetation changing trends on the Mongolian Plateau

Figure 10 Dynamic trends of precipitation (a), temperature (b), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (c) on the Mongolian Plateau from1982-2013

Figure 11 Statistics for livestock numbers and cumulative afforested area in Ordos (a) and Tongliao (b), Inner Mongolia, from 2000-2013

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