Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 152-174.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1465-1
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Jia CHEN1,2,*(), Xinjun YANG1,2(
), Sha YIN1, Kongsen WU1, Mengqi DENG1, Xin WEN1
Received:
2017-06-16
Accepted:
2017-07-30
Online:
2018-02-10
Published:
2018-02-10
Contact:
Jia CHEN
E-mail:dongdongbj2010@126.com;yangxj@nwu.edu.cn
About author:
Author: Chen Jia, PhD Candidate, specialized in social-ecological system and regional sustainable development E-mail:
Corresponding author: Yang Xinjun, Professor, E-mail:
Supported by:
Jia CHEN, Xinjun YANG, Sha YIN, Kongsen WU, Mengqi DENG, Xin WEN. The vulnerability evolution and simulation of social-ecological systems in a semi-arid area: A case study of Yulin City, China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(2): 152-174.
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Table 1
Index system of exposure risk assessment"
Dimension layer | Element type | Index layer | Weight | Indicator description and calculation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Exposure | Drought (0.4126) | Standardized precipitation index (SPI) | 0.2751 | SPI-SRI drought state model, combining the meteorological and horological drought indexes, adopting 12 months of data to reflect periodic changes in the river water level and reservoir |
Standardized runoff index (SRI) | 0.1375 | |||
Soil erosion (0.3275) | Rainfall erosion (R) | 0.0345 | Universal soil loss equation (USLE): A=R×K×LS×C×P A: Soil loss volume; R: Rainfall erosion; K: Soil erodibility; LS: Length of slope; C: Crop cover and management; P: Soil and water conservation measures | |
Soil erodibility (K) | 0.0629 | |||
Length of slope (LS) | 0.0307 | |||
Crop cover and management (C) | 0.0900 | |||
Soil and water conservation measures (P) | 0.1095 | |||
Human activities (0.2599) | Urbanization rate (UB) | 0.1049 | Calculation formula of comprehensive land use intensity (Wang et al., 2006):![]() Lx: Comprehensive index of land use degree in the xth sample; Ai: Classification index of land use grade i; Si: Land use area of grade i; S: Total land area of the sample area | |
Land use intensity (LD) | 0.1550 |
Table 2
Screening results of the sensitivity/adaptive capacity index"
Dimension layer | Principal component factor | Universal index | Index properties | Specific index | Index pro- perties | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sensi- tivity | Basic population principal component | The proportion of female population (%) The proportion of agricultural population (%) The proportion of employed population of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (%) Natural population growth rate (‰) The average education level of labor (years) Population density (people/km2) | + * - + - + | The number of employees employed in extractive industry (people) | * | ||||||||||
Agriculture and land principal component | The proportion of cultivated land area (%) The proportion of paddy field/irrigated land area (%) The growth rate of housing construction area (%) The proportion of abandoned cultivated land area due to disasters (%) Grain yield per unit area (ha/kg) | * * + + - | Aquaculture area (ha) Main cash crop yield (Chinese jujube etc.) (tons) | * - | |||||||||||
Ecology and environment principal component | Forest coverage (%) The proportion of effective irrigation area (%) Area of forest for water and soil conservation (103 ha) Total energy consumption (tons of standard coal) | - - - * | Total emission of industrial waste/waste water (104 tons) | + | |||||||||||
Economic development principal component | Per capita gross domestic product (yuan) The proportion of total value of output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (%) Industrial structure dependence index Engel’s coefficient Comprehensive energy consumption per unit GDP (10,000 yuan/ tons of standard coal) | - - + + + | Industrial water consumption per unit GDP (tons/104 yuan) | + | |||||||||||
Adaptive capacity | Education and technology principal component | The number of teachers of per ten thousand people possessed (people/10,000 people) The proportion of students on campus (%) The number of communications equipment per 100 households (telephone/100 households) Comprehensive utilization of product output value of “three wastes” (104 yuan) The proportion of fiscal expenditure on education (%) | + + + + + | The attainment rate of the industrial wastewater (%) Water saving irrigation machinery (suits)/drainage and irrigation power machinery (kw) | + + | ||||||||||
Social infrastructure principal component | The number of medical beds of per ten thousand people possessed (people/10,000 people) The number of health service employees (people) Fiscal expenditure on water affairs of agriculture and forestry (104 yuan) Social security expenditure per capita (104 yuan/10,000 people) The number of employees of transportation, storage and postal service (people) | + + + + + | / | ||||||||||||
Population and economy principal component | Per capita net income of farmers (yuan) The density of social fixed assets investment (104 yuan/ km2) The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (104 yuan) The third industrial added value accounted for the proportion of GDP (%) Local fiscal expenditure (104 yuan) Industrial structure diversification index | + + + + + + | / | ||||||||||||
Dimension layer | Principal component factor | Universal index | Index properties | Specific index | Index properties | ||||||||||
Adaptive capacity | Disaster prevention and mitigation facilities principal component | Reservoir capacity (104 m3) The density of drought resistant infrastructure (number/km2) Afforestation area in the year (ha) The area of forest for water and soil conservation (1000 ha) | + + + + | Dike length (km) | + | ||||||||||
Results of sensitivity principal component | Results of adaptive capacity principal component | ||||||||||||||
Years | 2000 | 2005 | 2011 | Years | 2000 | 2005 | 2011 | ||||||||
Minimum eigenvalue | 1.070 | 1.139 | 1.330 | Minimum eigenvalue | 1.202 | 1.062 | 1.351 | ||||||||
Cumulative contribution rate | 91.94% | 90.75% | 89.99% | Cumulative contribution rate | 88.30% | 89.53% | 88.75% |
Table 3
Classification of social-ecological system vulnerability in the study area during 2000-2015"
Year / Type | High vulnerability | Medium-high vulnerability | Medium vulnerability | Low-medium vulnerability | Low vulnerability | Above medium vulnerability | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | Proportion/% | 1.098 | 16.116 | 49.373 | 21.459 | 11.951 | 66.587 |
Area/km2 | 478.836 | 7023.390 | 21515.901 | 9351.638 | 5208.232 | 29018.127 | |
2005 | Proportion/% | 1.791 | 2.679 | 57.833 | 25.471 | 12.224 | 62.303 |
Area/km2 | 780.551 | 1167.519 | 25202.816 | 11099.949 | 5327.163 | 27150.886 | |
2011 | Proportion/% | 1.460 | 5.644 | 44.871 | 45.863 | 2.160 | 51.975 |
Area/km2 | 636.319 | 2459.650 | 19553.933 | 19986.428 | 941.6683 | 22649.902 | |
2015 | Proportion/% | 0.0009 | 0.563 | 56.540 | 39.800 | 2.997 | 57.103 |
Area/km2 | 0.414 | 245.344 | 24682.578 | 17344.043 | 1306.033 | 24928.336 |
Table 4
Results of the ordered weight"
Decision risk coefficient Decision-maker's risk attitude | a=0.0001 Extremely optimistic | a=0.1 Optimistic | a=0.5 Relatively optimistic | a=1 Unbiased representation | a=2 Relatively pessimistic | a=10 Pessimistic | a=1000 Extremely pessimistic | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OWA Order weight | Environment and technology | 1.000 | 0.786 | 0.301 | 0.090 | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Social resources | 0.000 | 0.056 | 0.124 | 0.090 | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
Economic development | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.095 | 0.090 | 0.041 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
Disaster prevention and mitigation resources | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.080 | 0.090 | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
Basic population | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.071 | 0.090 | 0.074 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
Land and agriculture | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.064 | 0.090 | 0.090 | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
Ecosystem | 0.000 | 0.014 | 0.059 | 0.090 | 0.107 | 0.008 | 0.000 | |
Economic resources | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.055 | 0.090 | 0.124 | 0.030 | 0.000 | |
Drought | 0.000 | 0.011 | 0.051 | 0.090 | 0.140 | 0.093 | 0.000 | |
Soil erosion | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.048 | 0.090 | 0.157 | 0.251 | 0.000 | |
Human activity | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.046 | 0.090 | 0.173 | 0.614 | 1.000 |
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