Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 79-92.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1460-6
• Research Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2017-06-08
Accepted:
2017-08-16
Online:
2018-01-10
Published:
2018-01-10
About author:
Author: Gao Chao (1978-), PhD and Professor, specialized in climate change and hydrology and water resources.E-mail:
Supported by:
Chao GAO, Tian RUAN. The influence of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(1): 79-92.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks
Table 1
SWIM runoff sensitivities given different levels of precipitation recorded at meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the HRB"
Δt(°C) | Δp (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
-20 | -10 | +0 | +10 | +20 | |
+3 | -36.12 | -18.35 | 0.33 | 20.54 | 39.93 |
+2 | -36.24 | -18.48 | 0.23 | 19.74 | 39.89 |
+1 | -36.36 | -18.62 | 0.09 | 19.62 | 39.78 |
0 | -36.48 | -18.72 | 0.00 | 19.08 | 39.73 |
-1 | -36.29 | -18.53 | 0.21 | 19.81 | 40.00 |
Table 2
Standardized runoff sensitivity results for the upper reaches of the HRB"
Δp(%) | Δt(°C) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
-1.2649 | -0.6324 | 0 | 0.6324 | 1.2649 | |
1.26491 | -1.3038 | -0.6559 | 0.0249 | 0.7619 | 1.4687 |
0.63246 | -1.3083 | -0.6608 | 0.0213 | 0.7327 | 1.4675 |
0 | -1.3128 | -0.6658 | 0.0161 | 0.7285 | 1.4635 |
-0.63246 | -1.3171 | -0.6695 | 0.0130 | 0.7320 | 1.4614 |
-1.26491 | -1.31028 | -0.6624 | 0.0208 | 0.7352 | 1.4713 |
Table 3
Contribution rates of upstream meteorological factors to midstream runoff"
Contribution rate of upstream meteorological factors to runoff (%) | Contribution rate of upstream meteorological factors to midstream runoff (%) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual average | Spring | Summer | Autumn | Winter | ||
Precipitation | (min) 6.13 | 1.70 | 1.77 | 1.73 | 1.53 | 1.55 |
(max) 7.73 | 2.14 | 2.23 | 2.18 | 1.93 | 1.96 | |
Temperature | (min) -0.48 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
(max) 1.32 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
[1] |
Aamery N Al, Fox J F, Snyder M, 2016. Evaluation of climate modeling factors impacting the variance of streamflow.Journal of Hydrology, 542: 125-142.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.054 |
[2] |
Ahn K H, Merwade V, 2017. The effect of land cover change on duration and severity of high and low flows.Hydrological Processes, 31(1): 133-149.
doi: 10.1002/hyp.10981 |
[3] |
Bao Z X, Zhang J Y, Wang G Qet al., 2012. Attribution for decreasing streamflow of the Haihe River basin, northern China: Climate variability or human activities?Journal of Hydrology, 460/461(3): 117-129.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.054 |
[4] | Bi Caixia, Mu Xingmin, Zhao Guangjuet al., 2013. Effects of climate change and human activity on streamflow in the Wei River basin.Science of Soil and Water Conservation, 11(2): 33-38. (in Chinese) |
[5] |
Birkinshaw S J, Guerreiro S B, Nicholson Aet al., 2017. Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(4): 1911-1927.
doi: 10.5194/hess-2016-231 |
[6] |
Chen Xiaohong, Tu Xinjun, Xie Pinget al., 2010. Progresses in the research of human induced variability of hydrological elements.Advances in Earth Science, 25(8): 800-811. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1017/S0004972710001772 |
[7] |
Deng H J, Chen Y N, 2017. Influences of recent climate change and human activities on water storage variations in Central Asia.Journal of Hydrology, 544: 46-57.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.006 |
[8] | Dong Xuguang, Gu Weizong, Wang Jinget al., 2015. Quantitative analysis of climate factors for potential evapotranspiration changes in Shandong. Journal of Natural Resources, 30(5): 810-823. (in Chinese) |
[9] | Gao Chao, Jin Gaojie, 2012. Effects of DEM resolution on results of the SWIM hydrological model in the Changtaiguan basin.Geographical Research, 31(3): 399-408. (in Chinese) |
[10] |
Gao C, Zhang Z T, Zhai J Qet al., 2015. Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster: A case study in the Huai River basin, China.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 29(1): 157-167.
doi: 10.1007/s00477-014-0951-y |
[11] |
Gao L M, Zhang Y N, 2016. Spatio-temporal variation of hydrological drought under climate change during the period 1960-2013 in the Hexi Corridor, China.Journal of Arid Land, 8(2): 157-171.
doi: 10.1007/s40333-015-0022-3 |
[12] |
He Hui, Liao Xueping, Lu Honget al., 2016. Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014.Acta Geographica Sinica, 71(1): 129-141. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201601010 |
[13] |
He Ruimin, Zhang Jianyun, Bao Zhenxinet al., 2015. Response of runoff to climate change in the Haihe River basin.Advances in Water Science, 26(1): 1-9. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.01.001 |
[14] |
Hu S S, Liu C M, Zheng H Xet al., 2012. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22(5): 895-905.
doi: 10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9 |
[15] |
Juckem P F, Hunt R J, Anderson M Pet al., 2008. Effects of climate and land management change on streamflow in the driftless area of Wisconsin.Journal of Hydrology, 355(1-4): 123-130.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.010 |
[16] |
Krysanova V, Meiner A, Roosaare Jet al., 1989. Simulation modelling of the coastal waters pollution from agricultural watershed.Ecological Modelling, 49(1/2): 7-29.
doi: 10.1016/0304-3800(89)90041-0 |
[17] |
Lan Yongchao, Shen Yongping, Zhong Yingjunet al., 2010. Sensitivity of the mountain runoff of Urumqi River to the climate changes.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 24(11): 50-55. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1037.2010.00186 |
[18] |
Liew M W V, Garbrecht J, 2003. Hydrologic simulation of the Little Washita River experimental watershed using SWAT.Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(2): 413-426.
doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb04395.x |
[19] |
Li K Y, Coe M T, Ramankutty Net al., 2007. Modeling the hydrological impact of land-use change in West Africa.Journal of Hydrology, 337(3/4): 258-268.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.038 |
[20] |
Li Zhi, Liu Wenzhao, Zheng Fenliet al., 2010. The impacts of climate change and human activities on river flow in the Loess Tableland of China.Acta Ecologica Sinica, 30(9): 2379-2386. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1016/S1872-5813(11)60001-7 |
[21] |
López-Moreno J I, Zabalza J, Vicente-Serrano S Met al., 2014. Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees.Science of the Total Environment, 493: 1222-1231.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.09.031 pmid: 24090497 |
[22] |
Lu Miao, Gao Chao, Su Budaet al., 2015. Spatial distribution and probabilistic characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River basin.Journal of Natural Disasters, 24(5): 160-168. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0518 |
[23] |
Ma C K, Sun L, Liu S Yet al., 2015. Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia.Journal of Arid Land, 7(4): 501-513.
doi: 10.1007/s40333-015-0041-0 |
[24] |
Mladjic B, Sushama L, Khaliq M Net al., 2011. Canadian RCM projected changes to extreme precipitation characteristics over Canada.Journal of Climate, 24(10): 2565-2584.
doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3937.1 |
[25] |
Mo Shuhong, Wang Xuefeng, Gou Kuiet al., 2016. Impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual runoff of Bahe River basin.Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 35(9): 7-17. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20160902 |
[26] |
Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Yet al., 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.Nature, 467(7311): 43-51.
doi: 10.1038/nature09364 pmid: 20811450 |
[27] |
Pierrehumbert R T, 2002. The hydrologic cycle in deep-time climate problems. Nature, 419(6903): 191-198.
doi: 10.1038/nature01088 pmid: 12226673 |
[28] | Song Xiaomeng, Zhang Jianyun, Zhan Cheshenget al., 2013. Review for impacts of climate change and human activities on water cycle.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 44(7): 779-790. (in Chinese) |
[29] |
Sun Yue, Li Dongliang, 2014. Features and response to climate-driven factors of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Weihe River in 1975-2011. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 36(2): 413-423. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0050 |
[30] |
Tong S T Y, Sun Y, Ranatunga Tet al., 2012. Predicting plausible impacts of sets climate and land use change scenarios on water resources.Applied Geography, 32(2): 477-489.
doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.06.014 |
[31] | Wang Guoqing, Wang Yunzhang, Kang Lingling, 2002. Analysis on the sensitivity of runoff in Yellow River to climate change.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 13(1): 117-121. (in Chinese) |
[32] |
Wang Guoqing, Zhang Jianyun, He Ruimin, 2006. Impacts of environmental change on runoff in the Fenhe River basin of the middle Yellow River.Advances in Water Science, 17(6): 853-858. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1016/S1872-2032(06)60021-8 |
[33] |
Wang Sheng, Tian Hong, Ding Xiaojunet al., 2009. Climate characteristics of precipitation and phenomenon of drought-flood abrupt alternation during main flood season in Huaihe River basin.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 30(1): 31-34. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.01.007 |
[34] |
Wu D, Chen F H, Li Ket al., 2016. Effects of climate change and human activity on lake shrinkage in Gonghe Basin of northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past 60 years.Journal of Arid Land, 8(4): 479-491.
doi: 10.1007/s40333-016-0125-5 |
[35] |
Xia Jun, 2009. Impact of water diversion project across basins on land water cycle and water security.Journal of Basic Science and Engineering, 17(6): 831-842. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-0930.2009.06.003 |
[36] |
Yang L S, Feng Q, Yin Z Let al., 2017. Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of the Heihe River, northwest China.Hydrological Processes, 31(1-5): 1100-1112.
doi: 10.1002/hyp.11098 |
[37] | Zhang Guosheng, Li Lin, Shi Xingheet al., 2000. Climatic changes over the upper Yellow River and its effects on water resources.Advances in Water Science, 11(3): 277-283. (in Chinese) |
[38] | Zhang Jian, Li Tongsheng, Zhang Junhuiet al., 2016. The runoff abrupt change and periodic characteristics of the Wudinghe River during 1933-2012.Acta Geographica Sinica, 36(3): 475-480. (in Chinese) |
[39] |
Zhang Lianpeng, Liu Dengfeng, Zhang Hongxueet al., 2016. Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff variation in the Beiluo River basin.Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 35(7): 55-66. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20160706 |
[40] | Zhang Liping, Li Lingcheng, Xia Junet al., 2015. Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in the Luanhe River catchment.Journal of Natural Resources, 30(4): 664-672. (in Chinese) |
[41] |
Zhang Shuifeng, Zhang Jinchi, Min Junjieet al., 2012. Drought-flood abrupt alternation based on runoff in the Huaihe River basin during rainy season.Journal of Lake Sciences, 24(5): 679-686. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.18307/2012.0506 |
[42] |
Zhang Zhengtao, Gao Chao, Liu Qinget al., 2014. Risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return periods in Huaihe River basin.Geographical Research, 33(7): 1361-1372. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1142/9789814723039_0017 |
[1] | HOU Bingfei, JIANG Chao, SUN Osbert Jianxin. Differential changes in precipitation and runoff discharge during 1958-2017 in the headwater region of Yellow River of China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(9): 1401-1418. |
[2] | ZHANG Chi, WU Shaohong, LENG Guoyong. Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(8): 1219-1232. |
[3] | LIU Haimeng, FANG Chuanglin, FANG Kai. Coupled Human and Natural Cube: A novel framework for analyzing the multiple interactions between humans and nature [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 355-377. |
[4] | LIU Juan, YAO Xiaojun, LIU Shiyin, GUO Wanqin, XU Junli. Glacial changes in the Gangdisê Mountains from 1970 to 2016 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 131-144. |
[5] | BA Wulong, DU Pengfei, LIU Tie, BAO Anming, CHEN Xi, LIU Jiao, QIN Chengxin. Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 164-176. |
[6] | FAN Zemeng, BAI Ruyu, YUE Tianxiang. Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 3-17. |
[7] | CHEN Qihui, CHEN Hua, ZHANG Jun, HOU Yukun, SHEN Mingxi, CHEN Jie, XU Chongyu. Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 85-102. |
[8] | YANG Yu, LI Xiaoyun, DONG Wen, POON P H Jessie, HONG Hui, HE Ze, LIU Yi. Assessing China’s human-environment relationship [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(8): 1261-1282. |
[9] | Martha Elizabeth APPLE, Macy Kara RICKETTS, Alice Caroline MARTIN. Plant functional traits and microbes vary with position on striped periglacial patterned ground at Glacier National Park, Montana [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(7): 1127-1141. |
[10] | Yuan ZHANG, Shuying ZANG, Li SUN, Binghe YAN, Tianpeng YANG, Wenjia YAN, E Michael MEADOWS, Cuizhen WANG, Jiaguo QI. Characterizing the changing environment of cropland in the Songnen Plain, Northeast China, from 1990 to 2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 658-674. |
[11] | Weifeng QIAO, Junbo GAO, Yuanzhi GUO, Qingqing JI, Ju WU, Min CAO. Multi-dimensional expansion of urban space through the lens of land use: The case study of Nanjing City, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 749-761. |
[12] | Yujie LIU, Ya QIN, Quansheng GE. Spatiotemporal differentiation of changes in maize phenology in China from 1981 to 2010 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(3): 351-362. |
[13] | Wenjuan HOU, Jiangbo GAO. Simulating runoff generation and its spatial correlation with environmental factors in Sancha River Basin: The southern source of the Wujiang River [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(3): 432-448. |
[14] | ZHONG Linsheng, YU Hu, ZENG Yuxi. Impact of climate change on Tibet tourism based on tourism climate index [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(12): 2085-2100. |
[15] | GAO Jiangbo, JIAO Kewei, WU Shaohong. Investigating the spatially heterogeneous relationships between climate factors and NDVI in China during 1982 to 2013 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(10): 1597-1609. |
|