Spatiotemporal changes in frequency and intensity of high-temperature events in China during 1961-2014

doi:10.1007/s11442-017-1419-z

Abstract

Abstract:

In this study, we explored spatial patterns and the temporal trends in high-temperature events (HTEs) for the mainland of China during 1961-2014 based on a daily- maximum surface-air-temperature dataset of 494 stations and nonparametric trend detection methods. With three thresholds of 35°C (HTE35), 37°C (HTE37), and 40°C (HTE40), HTEs occurred in 82%, 71%, and 37% of the surveyed stations and showed an overall increasing trend in both frequency and intensity during 1961-2014. In northern and southeastern China, HTEs showed a significant increasing trend in both frequency and intensity, whilst a decreasing trend for both was observed in central China. Despite such regional heterogeneity, HTEs overwhelmingly presented three-phase characteristics in all three representative regions and throughout China; the phases are 1961-1980, 1980-1990, and 1990-2014. Both frequency and intensity of HTEs have strongly increased during 1990-2014 at 54.86%, 48.38%, and 23.28% of the investigated stations for HTE35, HTE37 and HTE40, respectively. These findings implied that HTEs adaptation should be paid further attention in the future over China because the wide spread distribution of HTEs and their increasing trends in both frequency and intensity during recent decades might pose challenges to the sustainability of human society and the ecosystem.

Key words: high temperature, heat waves, extreme events, climate change, hiatus, warming hole

Ming ZHANG, Shiqiang DU, Yanjuan WU, Jiahong WEN, Congxiao WANG, Ming XU, Shuang-Ye WU. Spatiotemporal changes in frequency and intensity of high-temperature events in China during 1961-2014[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(9): 1027-1043.

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	1961-1980	1961-1990	1990-2014	1961-2014		1961-1980	1961-1990	1990-2014	1961-2014
Entire China					Southeastern Coast
HTEf35	-1.455^*	-0.653	1.833^***	0.425^**	HTEf35	-0.888	0.804	2.768**	1.345^***
HTEf37	-0.665	-0.321	0.947^**	0.240^**	HTEf37	-0.426	0.125	1.227	0.500^**
HTEf40	0.018	0.175	0.105	0.033	HTEf40	-1.068	-0.571	0.370	-0.033
Northern China					Central China
HTEf35	-0.078	0.020	2.059^***	1.043^***	HTEf35	-5.326^**	-4.012^***	2.068	-0.595
HTEf37	-1.195	-0.357	1.25^*	0.378	HTEf37	-2.746^**	-1.742^***	0.933^*	-0.423^*
HTEf40	-2.492	-0.684	1.451	-0.386	HTEf40	-0.503	-0.345^*	0.386^**	-0.021

	1961-1980	1961-1990	1990-2014	1961-2014		1961-1980	1961-1990	1990-2014	1961-2014
Entire China					Southeastern Coast
HTEi35	-0.052	-0.048*	0.099***	0.022*	HTEi35	-0.061	-0.02	0.116**	0.033**
HTEi37	-0.041	-0.036*	0.061*	0.013	HTEi37	-0.037	0.021	0.049	0.025
HTEi40	0.046	0.005	0.019	0.015	HTEi40	-0.105	-0.013	0.162**	0.042*
Northern China					Central China
HTEi35	0.011	-0.008	0.071	0.042**	HTEi35	-0.201	-0.164**	0.152**	-0.025
HTEi37	-0.013	-0.018	0.041	0.016	HTEi37	-0.102	-0.131**	0.132***	-0.004
HTEi40	-0.035	-0.049	0.021	-0.012	HTEi40	-0.135	-0.133**	0.093	0.007