New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030

doi:10.1007/s11442-017-1414-4

Abstract

Abstract:

The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015-2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.

Key words: new-type urbanization, urbanization investment, 2015-2030, forecasting, China

Dongqi SUN, Liang ZHOU, Yu LI, Haimeng LIU, Xiaoyan SHEN, Zedong WANG, Xixi WANG. New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(8): 943-966.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Figure 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Table 3

Table 4

The population dynamics and urbanization investment in China and its provinces for 2015-2030"

Provincial regions	The total popula- tion in 2030 (million)	Urban population in 2030 (million)	Urban reproduction population by itself (million)	Rural to urban population (million)	Population of urban growth (ten thousand)	New-type urbanization construction funds needed in yuan (trillion)	The proportion of funds accounted (%)	GDP in yuan (trillion)	Urbaniza- tion funds as a percentage of GDP (%)
Beijing	2992.12	2975.96	198.1	923.25	1121.35	3.07	2.91	53.6	5.73
Tianjin	1604.24	1582.42	105.34	446.25	551.59	1.51	1.43	31.5	4.79
Hebei	7500.32	4838.46	322.09	1477.44	1799.53	4.92	4.67	74.87	6.57
Shanxi	4729.47	3276.1	218.1	1049.87	1267.97	3.46	3.28	35.46	9.76
Inner Mongolia	2524.87	1896.43	126.25	489.21	615.46	1.69	1.6	48.65	3.47
Liaoning	4388.53	3337.04	222.15	710.59	932.74	2.56	2.43	72.24	3.54
Jilin	2800.62	1736.94	115.63	328.77	444.4	1.22	1.16	34.8	3.51
Heilongjiang	3760.28	2359.2	157.05	382.82	539.87	1.49	1.41	38.59	3.86
Shanghai	3011.63	3008.32	200.26	937.24	1137.5	3.1	2.94	63.49	4.88
Jiangsu	8170.34	7363.93	490.22	2209.68	2699.9	7.37	6.99	157.33	4.68
Zhejiang	5946.81	5692.88	378.98	2089.71	2468.69	6.73	6.39	98.13	6.86
Anhui	6059.4	3993.14	265.83	1112.78	1378.61	3.77	3.58	50.14	7.52
Fujian	4068.7	3637.01	242.11	1205.9	1448.01	3.95	3.75	56.57	6.98
Jiangxi	4680.76	3015.81	200.76	888.5	1089.26	2.98	2.83	38.1	7.82
Shandong	9799.01	7315.94	487.03	2079.85	2566.88	7.01	6.65	141.5	4.95
Henan	9494.06	5635.67	375.16	1584.68	1959.84	5.36	5.09	83.78	6.4
Hubei	5563.67	3781.07	251.72	909.88	1161.6	3.18	3.02	65.31	4.87
Hunan	6415.51	4321.49	287.69	1206.37	1494.06	4.09	3.88	66.13	6.18
Guangdong	14470.67	13901.97	925.45	5381.01	6306.46	17.17	16.29	164.42	10.44
Guangxi	4853.91	3053.11	203.24	865.63	1068.87	2.92	2.77	38.92	7.5
Hainan	1066.6	766.46	51.03	255.15	306.18	0.83	0.79	10.39	7.99
Chongqing	2690.93	2235.89	148.85	601.95	750.8	2.05	1.95	34.14	6
Sichuan	7785.76	4853.64	323.12	1289.88	1613	4.41	4.18	69.93	6.31
Guizhou	3701.6	1841.92	122.62	509.82	632.44	1.73	1.64	17.81	9.71
Yunnan	5194.26	2842.3	189.22	923.6	1112.82	3.03	2.88	29.69	10.21
Tibet	366.95	117.5	7.83	35.93	43.76	0.12	0.11	1.98	6.06
Shaanxi	3844.83	2569.5	171.06	737.61	908.67	2.48	2.35	42.88	5.78
Gansu	2709.57	1310.89	87.27	368.2	455.47	1.24	1.18	16.16	7.67
Qinghai	649.93	363.44	24.2	99.82	124.02	0.34	0.32	5.44	6.25
Ningxia	783.91	496.53	33.05	156.82	189.87	0.52	0.49	7.26	7.16
Xinjiang	2896.73	1275.14	84.88	309.75	394.63	1.08	1.02	21.44	5.04
China	144526	101341.63	7016.26	31567.96	38584.22	105.38	100	1649.21	6.39

Table 4

Table 5

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Year	Urbani- zation rate (%)	Total population (100 million)	Urban population (100 million)	Rural population (100 million)	Urban population transferred from rural areas (100 million)	GDP (trillion yuan)	GDP/100 million people (trillion yuan)	The structure of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries (%)
2015	48.23	13.75	6.63	7.12	0.1836	68.2	4.96	10/45/45
2016	49.77	13.81	6.87	6.94	0.1869	72.63	5.26	10/45/45
2017	51.31	13.87	7.12	6.75	0.1896	77.35	5.58	10/45/45
2018	52.85	13.92	7.36	6.56	0.1911	82.38	5.92	10/44/46
2019	54.38	13.97	7.6	6.37	0.1928	87.74	6.28	10/44/46
2020	55.9	14.03	7.84	6.19	0.1948	93.44	6.66	10/44/46
2021	57.41	14.07	8.08	5.99	0.1966	99.51	7.07	10/44/46
2022	58.91	14.12	8.32	5.8	0.1983	105.98	7.51	10/44/46
2023	60.40	14.17	8.56	5.61	0.2003	112.87	7.97	10/44/46
2024	61.86	14.21	8.79	5.42	0.1997	120.21	8.46	10/44/46
2025	63.30	14.26	9.03	5.23	0.1989	128.02	8.98	10/43/47
2026	64.72	14.30	9.25	5.05	0.1984	136.34	9.53	10/43/47
2027	66.11	14.34	9.48	4.86	0.1965	145.2	10.13	10/43/47
2028	67.48	14.38	9.7	4.68	0.1954	154.64	10.75	10/43/47
2029	68.82	14.41	9.92	4.49	0.1932	164.7	11.43	10/43/47
2030	70.12	14.45	10.13	4.32	0.1903	175.4	12.14	10/43/47

Provincial regions	2015	2020	2025	2030	Provincial regions	2015	2020	2025	2030
Beijing	77.13	85.02	92.32	99.46	Hubei	46.15	53.77	61.14	67.96
Tianjin	72.91	81.26	89.1	98.64	Hunan	43.58	51.82	59.85	67.36
Hebei	40.86	49.02	57.01	64.51	Guangdong	64.3	76.21	87.81	96.07
Shanxi	46.95	54.74	62.3	69.27	Guangxi	40.86	48.49	55.95	62.9
Inner Mongolia	52.34	60.34	68.04	75.11	Hainan	47.75	56.13	64.28	71.86
Liaoning	57.67	64.3	70.51	76.04	Chongqing	52.09	62.77	73.24	83.09
Jilin	48.79	53.64	58.12	62.02	Sichuan	40.37	47.98	55.4	62.34
Heilongjiang	50.03	54.73	59.03	62.74	Guizhou	32.51	38.49	44.32	49.76
Shanghai	79.78	87.43	94.46	99.89	Yunnan	35.26	41.99	48.57	54.72
Jiangsu	58.72	69.61	80.22	90.13	Tibet	22.38	25.77	29.03	32.02
Zhejiang	58.69	71.41	83.92	95.73	Shaanxi	43.86	51.84	59.6	66.83
Anhui	42.48	50.59	58.5	65.9	Gansu	32.36	37.94	43.35	48.38
Fujian	56.32	67.73	78.89	89.39	Qinghai	40.49	45.97	51.19	55.92
Jiangxi	42.59	50.18	57.57	64.43	Ningxia	43.67	50.56	57.21	63.34
Shandong	49.56	58.28	66.77	74.66	Xinjiang	36.08	39.07	41.76	44.02
Henan	38.62	45.81	52.81	59.36	China	48.23	55.9	63.3	70.12

Provincial regions	δ	Region	δ	Provincial regions	δ	Region	δ
Guizhou	0.5933	Anhui	0.2836	Heilongjiang	0.0764	Shandong	-0.2849
Tibet	0.5255	Qinghai	0.2654	Guangdong	0.0474	Zhejiang	-0.4388
Yunnan	0.5195	Henan	0.2267	Shaanxi	0.0163	Liaoning	-0.4864
Gansu	0.4845	Sichuan	0.2122	Entire country	0.0000	Beijing	-0.5809
Shanxi	0.3666	Ningxia	0.1951	Hubei	-0.0454	Jiangsu	-0.7182
Xinjiang	0.3420	Hainan	0.1609	Chongqing	-0.1164	Inner Mongolia	-0.7412
Guangxi	0.3057	Hebei	0.1269	Jilin	-0.1225	Tianjin	-0.7501
Jiangxi	0.2976	Hunan	0.0947	Fujian	-0.2107	Shanghai	-0.8772

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