Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (8): 943-966.doi: 10.1007/s11442-017-1414-4
• Orginal Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Dongqi SUN1(), Liang ZHOU2, Yu LI1(
), Haimeng LIU1, Xiaoyan SHEN3, Zedong WANG3, Xixi WANG3
Received:
2016-07-26
Accepted:
2016-09-20
Online:
2017-08-31
Published:
2017-09-15
About author:
Author: Sun Dongqi (1985-), PhD, specialized in economic geography and regional development. E-mail:
*Corresponding author: Li Yu (1973-), Associate Professor, specialized in urbanization and its eco-environment effects. E-mail:
Supported by:
Dongqi SUN, Liang ZHOU, Yu LI, Haimeng LIU, Xiaoyan SHEN, Zedong WANG, Xixi WANG. New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(8): 943-966.
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Table 1
The dynamics of China’s urbanization rate and related factors 2015-2030"
Year | Urbani- zation rate (%) | Total population (100 million) | Urban population (100 million) | Rural population (100 million) | Urban population transferred from rural areas (100 million) | GDP (trillion yuan) | GDP/100 million people (trillion yuan) | The structure of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 48.23 | 13.75 | 6.63 | 7.12 | 0.1836 | 68.2 | 4.96 | 10/45/45 |
2016 | 49.77 | 13.81 | 6.87 | 6.94 | 0.1869 | 72.63 | 5.26 | 10/45/45 |
2017 | 51.31 | 13.87 | 7.12 | 6.75 | 0.1896 | 77.35 | 5.58 | 10/45/45 |
2018 | 52.85 | 13.92 | 7.36 | 6.56 | 0.1911 | 82.38 | 5.92 | 10/44/46 |
2019 | 54.38 | 13.97 | 7.6 | 6.37 | 0.1928 | 87.74 | 6.28 | 10/44/46 |
2020 | 55.9 | 14.03 | 7.84 | 6.19 | 0.1948 | 93.44 | 6.66 | 10/44/46 |
2021 | 57.41 | 14.07 | 8.08 | 5.99 | 0.1966 | 99.51 | 7.07 | 10/44/46 |
2022 | 58.91 | 14.12 | 8.32 | 5.8 | 0.1983 | 105.98 | 7.51 | 10/44/46 |
2023 | 60.40 | 14.17 | 8.56 | 5.61 | 0.2003 | 112.87 | 7.97 | 10/44/46 |
2024 | 61.86 | 14.21 | 8.79 | 5.42 | 0.1997 | 120.21 | 8.46 | 10/44/46 |
2025 | 63.30 | 14.26 | 9.03 | 5.23 | 0.1989 | 128.02 | 8.98 | 10/43/47 |
2026 | 64.72 | 14.30 | 9.25 | 5.05 | 0.1984 | 136.34 | 9.53 | 10/43/47 |
2027 | 66.11 | 14.34 | 9.48 | 4.86 | 0.1965 | 145.2 | 10.13 | 10/43/47 |
2028 | 67.48 | 14.38 | 9.7 | 4.68 | 0.1954 | 154.64 | 10.75 | 10/43/47 |
2029 | 68.82 | 14.41 | 9.92 | 4.49 | 0.1932 | 164.7 | 11.43 | 10/43/47 |
2030 | 70.12 | 14.45 | 10.13 | 4.32 | 0.1903 | 175.4 | 12.14 | 10/43/47 |
Table 2
China’s urbanization rate (by province, %) in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030"
Provincial regions | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | Provincial regions | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beijing | 77.13 | 85.02 | 92.32 | 99.46 | Hubei | 46.15 | 53.77 | 61.14 | 67.96 |
Tianjin | 72.91 | 81.26 | 89.1 | 98.64 | Hunan | 43.58 | 51.82 | 59.85 | 67.36 |
Hebei | 40.86 | 49.02 | 57.01 | 64.51 | Guangdong | 64.3 | 76.21 | 87.81 | 96.07 |
Shanxi | 46.95 | 54.74 | 62.3 | 69.27 | Guangxi | 40.86 | 48.49 | 55.95 | 62.9 |
Inner Mongolia | 52.34 | 60.34 | 68.04 | 75.11 | Hainan | 47.75 | 56.13 | 64.28 | 71.86 |
Liaoning | 57.67 | 64.3 | 70.51 | 76.04 | Chongqing | 52.09 | 62.77 | 73.24 | 83.09 |
Jilin | 48.79 | 53.64 | 58.12 | 62.02 | Sichuan | 40.37 | 47.98 | 55.4 | 62.34 |
Heilongjiang | 50.03 | 54.73 | 59.03 | 62.74 | Guizhou | 32.51 | 38.49 | 44.32 | 49.76 |
Shanghai | 79.78 | 87.43 | 94.46 | 99.89 | Yunnan | 35.26 | 41.99 | 48.57 | 54.72 |
Jiangsu | 58.72 | 69.61 | 80.22 | 90.13 | Tibet | 22.38 | 25.77 | 29.03 | 32.02 |
Zhejiang | 58.69 | 71.41 | 83.92 | 95.73 | Shaanxi | 43.86 | 51.84 | 59.6 | 66.83 |
Anhui | 42.48 | 50.59 | 58.5 | 65.9 | Gansu | 32.36 | 37.94 | 43.35 | 48.38 |
Fujian | 56.32 | 67.73 | 78.89 | 89.39 | Qinghai | 40.49 | 45.97 | 51.19 | 55.92 |
Jiangxi | 42.59 | 50.18 | 57.57 | 64.43 | Ningxia | 43.67 | 50.56 | 57.21 | 63.34 |
Shandong | 49.56 | 58.28 | 66.77 | 74.66 | Xinjiang | 36.08 | 39.07 | 41.76 | 44.02 |
Henan | 38.62 | 45.81 | 52.81 | 59.36 | China | 48.23 | 55.9 | 63.3 | 70.12 |
Table 3
The index of national and provincial urbanization quality in 2030"
Provincial regions | σ | Provincial regions | σ | Provincial regions | σ | Provincial regions | σ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beijing | 0.6746 | Shanghai | 0.6788 | Hubei | 0.4377 | Yunnan | 0.1465 |
Tianjin | 0.6763 | Jiangsu | 0.6273 | Hunan | 0.4452 | Tibet | 0.0067 |
Hebei | 0.4315 | Zhejiang | 0.6165 | Guangdong | 0.6077 | Shaanxi | 0.2242 |
Shanxi | 0.2279 | Anhui | 0.3815 | Guangxi | 0.2158 | Gansu | 0.0796 |
Inner Mongolia | 0.4525 | Fujian | 0.5713 | Hainan | 0.3856 | Qinghai | 0.0719 |
Liaoning | 0.4769 | Jiangxi | 0.2261 | Chongqing | 0.4667 | Ningxia | 0.1429 |
Jilin | 0.3419 | Shandong | 0.6046 | Sichuan | 0.2558 | Xinjiang | 0.1391 |
Heilongjiang | 0.2463 | Henan | 0.3925 | Guizhou | 0.0348 | China | 0.4371 |
Table 4
The population dynamics and urbanization investment in China and its provinces for 2015-2030"
Provincial regions | The total popula- tion in 2030 (million) | Urban population in 2030 (million) | Urban reproduction population by itself (million) | Rural to urban population (million) | Population of urban growth (ten thousand) | New-type urbanization construction funds needed in yuan (trillion) | The proportion of funds accounted (%) | GDP in yuan (trillion) | Urbaniza- tion funds as a percentage of GDP (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beijing | 2992.12 | 2975.96 | 198.1 | 923.25 | 1121.35 | 3.07 | 2.91 | 53.6 | 5.73 |
Tianjin | 1604.24 | 1582.42 | 105.34 | 446.25 | 551.59 | 1.51 | 1.43 | 31.5 | 4.79 |
Hebei | 7500.32 | 4838.46 | 322.09 | 1477.44 | 1799.53 | 4.92 | 4.67 | 74.87 | 6.57 |
Shanxi | 4729.47 | 3276.1 | 218.1 | 1049.87 | 1267.97 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 35.46 | 9.76 |
Inner Mongolia | 2524.87 | 1896.43 | 126.25 | 489.21 | 615.46 | 1.69 | 1.6 | 48.65 | 3.47 |
Liaoning | 4388.53 | 3337.04 | 222.15 | 710.59 | 932.74 | 2.56 | 2.43 | 72.24 | 3.54 |
Jilin | 2800.62 | 1736.94 | 115.63 | 328.77 | 444.4 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 34.8 | 3.51 |
Heilongjiang | 3760.28 | 2359.2 | 157.05 | 382.82 | 539.87 | 1.49 | 1.41 | 38.59 | 3.86 |
Shanghai | 3011.63 | 3008.32 | 200.26 | 937.24 | 1137.5 | 3.1 | 2.94 | 63.49 | 4.88 |
Jiangsu | 8170.34 | 7363.93 | 490.22 | 2209.68 | 2699.9 | 7.37 | 6.99 | 157.33 | 4.68 |
Zhejiang | 5946.81 | 5692.88 | 378.98 | 2089.71 | 2468.69 | 6.73 | 6.39 | 98.13 | 6.86 |
Anhui | 6059.4 | 3993.14 | 265.83 | 1112.78 | 1378.61 | 3.77 | 3.58 | 50.14 | 7.52 |
Fujian | 4068.7 | 3637.01 | 242.11 | 1205.9 | 1448.01 | 3.95 | 3.75 | 56.57 | 6.98 |
Jiangxi | 4680.76 | 3015.81 | 200.76 | 888.5 | 1089.26 | 2.98 | 2.83 | 38.1 | 7.82 |
Shandong | 9799.01 | 7315.94 | 487.03 | 2079.85 | 2566.88 | 7.01 | 6.65 | 141.5 | 4.95 |
Henan | 9494.06 | 5635.67 | 375.16 | 1584.68 | 1959.84 | 5.36 | 5.09 | 83.78 | 6.4 |
Hubei | 5563.67 | 3781.07 | 251.72 | 909.88 | 1161.6 | 3.18 | 3.02 | 65.31 | 4.87 |
Hunan | 6415.51 | 4321.49 | 287.69 | 1206.37 | 1494.06 | 4.09 | 3.88 | 66.13 | 6.18 |
Guangdong | 14470.67 | 13901.97 | 925.45 | 5381.01 | 6306.46 | 17.17 | 16.29 | 164.42 | 10.44 |
Guangxi | 4853.91 | 3053.11 | 203.24 | 865.63 | 1068.87 | 2.92 | 2.77 | 38.92 | 7.5 |
Hainan | 1066.6 | 766.46 | 51.03 | 255.15 | 306.18 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 10.39 | 7.99 |
Chongqing | 2690.93 | 2235.89 | 148.85 | 601.95 | 750.8 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 34.14 | 6 |
Sichuan | 7785.76 | 4853.64 | 323.12 | 1289.88 | 1613 | 4.41 | 4.18 | 69.93 | 6.31 |
Guizhou | 3701.6 | 1841.92 | 122.62 | 509.82 | 632.44 | 1.73 | 1.64 | 17.81 | 9.71 |
Yunnan | 5194.26 | 2842.3 | 189.22 | 923.6 | 1112.82 | 3.03 | 2.88 | 29.69 | 10.21 |
Tibet | 366.95 | 117.5 | 7.83 | 35.93 | 43.76 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1.98 | 6.06 |
Shaanxi | 3844.83 | 2569.5 | 171.06 | 737.61 | 908.67 | 2.48 | 2.35 | 42.88 | 5.78 |
Gansu | 2709.57 | 1310.89 | 87.27 | 368.2 | 455.47 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 16.16 | 7.67 |
Qinghai | 649.93 | 363.44 | 24.2 | 99.82 | 124.02 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 5.44 | 6.25 |
Ningxia | 783.91 | 496.53 | 33.05 | 156.82 | 189.87 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 7.26 | 7.16 |
Xinjiang | 2896.73 | 1275.14 | 84.88 | 309.75 | 394.63 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 21.44 | 5.04 |
China | 144526 | 101341.63 | 7016.26 | 31567.96 | 38584.22 | 105.38 | 100 | 1649.21 | 6.39 |
Table 5
The investment intensity index of China’s new-type urbanization construction for 2015-2030"
Provincial regions | δ | Region | δ | Provincial regions | δ | Region | δ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guizhou | 0.5933 | Anhui | 0.2836 | Heilongjiang | 0.0764 | Shandong | -0.2849 |
Tibet | 0.5255 | Qinghai | 0.2654 | Guangdong | 0.0474 | Zhejiang | -0.4388 |
Yunnan | 0.5195 | Henan | 0.2267 | Shaanxi | 0.0163 | Liaoning | -0.4864 |
Gansu | 0.4845 | Sichuan | 0.2122 | Entire country | 0.0000 | Beijing | -0.5809 |
Shanxi | 0.3666 | Ningxia | 0.1951 | Hubei | -0.0454 | Jiangsu | -0.7182 |
Xinjiang | 0.3420 | Hainan | 0.1609 | Chongqing | -0.1164 | Inner Mongolia | -0.7412 |
Guangxi | 0.3057 | Hebei | 0.1269 | Jilin | -0.1225 | Tianjin | -0.7501 |
Jiangxi | 0.2976 | Hunan | 0.0947 | Fujian | -0.2107 | Shanghai | -0.8772 |
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