Exploring the differential impacts of urban transit system on the spatial distribution of local and floating population in Beijing

doi:10.1007/s11442-017-1403-7

Abstract

Abstract:

The floating population has become the main driver of urban population excessive growth in China’s mega cities. Urban transit system (UTS) is a significant factor in population spatial distributions within urban areas, especially rapid and high-capacity transit systems. This paper analyzes the causal effects of the extension of expressways and subways between 2000 and 2010 in the Beijing Metropolitan Area (BMA), focusing on the group differences between the local residents and the floating population. Due to the endogeneity of transportation improvements and population growth, Instrumental Variable (IV) regression model is applied to avoid this problem. The results show the local residents increased in the inner suburbs but decreased in the city center, while the floating population increased in the majority areas. IV regression results show that the extension of urban transit systems had statistically significant impacts on population growth across the BMA. The results also show that the extension of urban subway system had more effects on the floating population than the local residents across the BMA. It is mainly caused by the rather low fare of urban subway system. This implies that the excessive subsidy on urban subway system could result in excessive floating population growth and residential differentiation, even residential segregation. Hence, it is necessary to plan and design reasonable and scientific urban transit systems in order to advance reasonable population size and promote residential integration. Moreover, the regional analysis shows that the effects of urban transportation improvements on the local residents are not statistically significant in the inner suburbs. It implies that urban transportation improvements had limited effects on inducing people to move to suburban areas and controlling center city’s population in Beijing. Therefore, it should be stressed the differentiated effects of urban transportation improvements on population distribution in the process of urban planning and population control.

Key words: urban transit systems (UTS), population spatial distribution, causal effects, group differences, Beijing

Meifeng ZHAO, Shenghe LIU, Wei QI. Exploring the differential impacts of urban transit system on the spatial distribution of local and floating population in Beijing[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(6): 731-751.

Figures/Tables 9

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Table 3

Table 4

First-stage results of the Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS)"

Variables	Total population				Local residents		Floating population
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	? (dis^exp)	? (dis^sw)	? (dis^exp)	? (dis^sw)	? (dis^exp)	? (dis^sw)	? (dis^exp)	? (dis^sw)
Panel A: Entire BMA
dis^es	0.107***	-0.485***	0.110***	-0.477***	0.106***	-0.484***	0.112***	-0.460***
dis^sw56	0.652***	-0.190*	0.639***	-0.229**	0.666***	-0.201**	0.648***	-0.200**
dis^CBD	-0.502***	0.278***	-0.487***	0.323***	-0.506***	0.298***	-0.508***	0.218***
dis^sub	-0.404***	-0.235***	-0.399***	-0.219***	-0.406***	-0.224***	-0.410***	-0.280***
logP₂₀₀₀	-0.088	-0.307	-0.128	-0.433	-0.118	-0.137	-0.175	-0.981***
Motor			0.715	0.224**
Constant	4.680*	1.782	3.410	-2.204	4.965*	-0.006	5.272**	7.030***
R-squared	0.491	0.577	0.492	0.586	0.491	0.576	0.491	0.598
Number of subdistricts	226	226	226	226	226	226	226	226
Panel B: Inner suburbs
dis^es	0.050	-0.676***	0.078*	-0.695***	0.050	-0.673***	0.036	-0.655***
dis^sw⁵⁶	0.594***	-0.268**	0.605***	-0.275**	0.592***	-0.267**	0.619***	-0.316***
dis^CBD	-0.517***	0.185**	-0.475***	0.157**	-0.523***	0.196**	-0.506***	0.143*
dis^sub	-0.271***	-0.056	-0.239***	-0.078	-0.277***	-0.047	-0.260***	-0.098
logP₂₀₀₀	0.224	-0.156	0.368	-0.255	0.143	0.014	0.444	-0.881**
Motor			0.313***	-0.213
Constant	1.777	0.983	-6.569*	6.663	2.648	-0.479	0.294	6.869**
R-squared	0.545	0.623	0.580	0.630	0.544	0.622	0.550	0.637
Number of subdistricts	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135
Panel C: Outer suburbs
dis^es	0.182**	-0.363***	0.243***	-0.319***	0.179**	-0.368***	0.250***	-0.326***
dis^swt⁵⁶	1.038***	-0.611**	1.415***	-0.340	1.103***	-0.563**	0.842***	-0.845***
dis^CBD	-0.780**	0.715***	-1.069***	0.507**	-0.841**	0.672***	-0.606**	0.915***
dis^sub	-0.547***	-0.233***	-0.616***	-0.283***	-0.561***	-0.242***	-0.511***	-0.198***
logP₂₀₀₀	-1.639	-2.189***	-0.100	-01.730***	-1.835*	-2.296***	-1.109*	-1.637***
Motor			-2.057**	-1.477***
Constant	15.335	6.760***	45.878***	28.691***	17.177	7.675	7.184	-2.952
R-squared	0.411	0.810	0.477	0.836	0.420	0.809	0.421	0.835
Number of subdistricts	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60

Table 4

Table 5

First-difference regression of the determinants of population growth, 2000-2010"

Variables	Δ(logTP)				Δ(logLR)		Δ(logFP)
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	OLS	IV	OLS	IV	OLS	IV	OLS	IV
Panel A: Entire BMA
Δ(dis^exp)	0.010	-0.004	0.012**	0.008	0.006	-0.014	0.018*	0.036
Δ(dis^sw)	-0.029***	-0.027***	-0.026***	-0.021**	-0.018***	-0.020**	-0.045***	-0.025*
dis^CBD	-0.025***	-0.025***	-0.028***	-0.028***	-0.013***	-0.013***	-0.050***	-0.049***
dis^sub	-0.012***	-0.014**	-0.012***	-0.011*	-0.010***	-0.015**	-0.002	0.011
logP₂₀₀₀	-0.229***	-0.225***	-0.204***	-0.202***	-0.137***	-0.131***	-0.357***	-0.326***
Motor			-0.036***	-0.037***
Constant	2.664***	2.634***	3.217***	3.219***	1.474***	1.433***	3.917***	3.659***
R-squared	0.354	0.342	0.388	0.387	0.204	0.168	0.385	0.357
F	24.13***		23.11***		11.24***		27.5***
Wald χ²		97.34***		119.80***		45.88***		108.69***
Number of subdistricts	226	226	226	226	226	226	226	226
Panel B: Inner suburbs
Δ(dis^exp)	0.017	-0.009	0.021	-0.009	0.012	-0.022	0.031**	0.028
Δ(dis^sw)	-0.020**	-0.033***	-0.019**	-0.030**	-0.011	-0.025*	-0.030***	-0.042***
dis^CBD	-0.023***	-0.029***	-0.026***	-0.032***	-0.011	-0.020**	-0.041***	-0.045***
dis^sub	-0.009	-0.012*	-0.012*	-0.014**	-0.012*	-0.016**	0.007	0.004
logP₂₀₀₀	-0.267***	-0.261***	-0.280***	-0.269***	-0.160***	-0.151**	-0.400***	-0.411***
Motor			-0.027	-0.019
Constant	3.055***	3.022***	3.774***	3.534***	1.761***	1.718***	4.171***	4.273***
R-squared	0.332	0.308	0.346	0.318	0.163	0.116	0.444	0.438
F	12.82***		11.26***		5.03***		20.6***
Wald χ²		61.37***		63.11***		24.76***		102.48***
Number of subdistricts	135	135	135	135	135	135	135	135
Panel C: Outer suburb
Δ(dis^exp)	0.008	0.001	0.008	0.006	0.006	-0.010	0.028	0.403
Δ(dis^sw)	-0.008	-0.015	0.003	-0.015	-0.003	-0.016	-0.012	0.231
dis^CBD	-0.010**	-0.008	-0.009**	-0.008	-0.004	0.000	-0.056***	-0.143
dis^sub	0.003	-0.002	0.003	0.001	0.004	-0.001	0.014	0.231
logP₂₀₀₀	0.057	0.035	0.063	0.054	0.067*	0.030	-0.159*	0.607
Motor			-0.015	-0.030
Constant	-0.039	0.047	0.152	0.412	-0.436	-0.322	3.316***	2.372
R-squared	0.352	0.317	0.354	0.346	0.223	0.001	0.432	0.001
F	5.88***		4.84***		3.10***		8.20***
Wald χ²		30.63***		32.32***		13.89**		4.25
Number of subdistricts	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60

Table 5

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Region	Population in 2010			Population growth in 2000-2010
Region	Total (% of total population)	Local residents (% of total population)	Floating population (% of total population)	Total (% of total population growth)	Local residents (% of total population growth)	Floating population (% of total population growth)
City center	2.15(11.94%)	1.59(8.83%)	0.54(3.00%)	0.06(0.94%)	-0.20(-3.47%)	0.26(4.39%)
Inner suburbs	13.99(77.68%)	8.04(44.64%)	5.82(32.32%)	5.65(96.15%)	1.68(28.62%)	3.92(66.81%)
Outer suburbs	1.86(10.33%)	1.44(8.00%)	0.40(2.22%)	0.17(2.9%)	-0.06(-1.01%)	0.23(3.96%)
BMA	18.01(100%)	11.07(61.48%)	6.77(37.57%)	5.87(100%)	1.42(24.14%)	4.41(75.15%)

Variables	Variable description	Entire BMA		Inner suburbs		Outer suburbs
Variables	Variable description	Mean	S.D.	Mean	S.D.	Mean	S.D.
Dependent variables
? (logTP)	2000-2010 △[log(total population density)]	0.271	0.470	0.465	0.474	-0.024	0.292
? (logLR)	2000-2010 △[log(local resident density)]	0.065	0.400	0.200	0.429	-0.125	0.228
? (logFP)	2000-2010 △[log(floating population density)]	0.916	0.700	1.077	0.632	0.714	0.864
Independent and control variables
? (dis^exp)	2000-2010 △[distance to the nearest expreeway ramp] (km)	-2.767	4.675	-2.083	3.383	-5.715	6.600
? (dis^sw)	2000-2010 △[distance to the nearest subway station] (km)	-4.497	5.805	-4.354	4.996	-7.006	7.468
dis^CBD	Distance to CBD (km)	20.639	16.401	14.561	8.383	43.148	10.583
dis^sub	Distance to the nearest subcenter (km)	15.209	11.854	11.652	7.528	28.298	12.282
logTP₂₀₀₀	log(total population density) in 2000	7.843	1.839	8.251	1.374	5.768	1.084
logLR₂₀₀₀	log(local resident density) in 2000	7.624	1.827	7.971	1.412	5.651	1.069
logFP₂₀₀₀	log(floating population density) in 2000	5.867	2.180	6.588	1.386	3.108	1.498
Motor	The private vehcle amount in every 100 people in 2010	19.149	3.572	18.956	2.686	16.217	1.062
Instrumental variables
dis^sw56	Distance to the nearest subway station in 1956 plan (km)	13.784	14.371	7.893	7.187	33.874	9.406
dis^es	Distance to the Euclidean spanning tree network (km)	7.072	7.872	4.932	5.151	12.992	10.658
Number of subdistricts		226		135		60