Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass, a case study in Taihe County of China

doi:10.1007/s11442-017-1372-x

Abstract

Abstract:

Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010-2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7% (RCP2.6 + land use), 57.2% (RCP4.5 + land use), and 56.9% (RCP8.5 + land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management.

Key words: RCPs, plantation, forest aboveground biomass, ABM, LANDIS-II, Taihe County

Zhuo WU, Quansheng DAI, Quansheng GE, Weimin XI, Xiaofan WANG. Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass, a case study in Taihe County of China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(2): 205-222.

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Species	Common name	Longevity (year)	Sexual maturity (year)	Shade tol.	Seed dispersal dist.
Species	Common name	Longevity (year)	Sexual maturity (year)	Shade tol.	Effective (m)	Maximum (m)
Cunninghamia lanceolata	Chinese fir	200	10	1	200	500
Cupressus funebris	Chinese weeping cypress	500	35	2	70	200
Pinus massoniana	Masson pine	200	10	1	200	500
Pinus elliottii	Slash pine	200	10	1	200	500
Schima superba	Crenate gugertree	300	20	5	20	200
Cinnamomum camphora	Camphor tree	1000	15	4	50	120
Phoebe zhennan	Zhennan	1000	50	5	40	120
Castanopsis eyrei	Eyer evergreenchinkapin	200	20	5	50	120
Castanopsis fargesii	Farges evergreenchinkapin	150	30	5	60	250
Quercus fabri	Faber oak	120	15	4	20	200
Cyclobalanopsis gracilis	Myrsinaleaf oak	200	7	4	20	50
Liquidambar formosana	Beautiful sweetgum	130	8	3	100	375
Betula luminifera	Shinybark birch	100	15	2	150	400
Alnus cremastogyne	Longpeduncled alder	125	5	3	15	60
Alniphyllum fortunei	Fortune Chinabells	120	15	2	250	500
Sassafras tzumu	Chinese sassafras	120	20	3	50	150
Melia azedarach	Chinaberry	80	5	2	200	400
Populusdeltoids	Poplar	90	10	2	150	500