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Journal of Geographical Sciences    2016, Vol. 26 Issue (12) : 1647-1660     DOI: 10.1007/s11442-016-1350-8
Orginal Article |
Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014
CHAI Zhonghua(),LIU Puxing()
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
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Abstract  

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0℃ for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a, -0.27 p/10a, and -0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.

Keywords Chinese oases      pentad average temperature      influencing factor      regional warming     
Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40961035;The Science and Technology Project of Gansu Province, No.0803RJZA094;The Provincial Key Disciplines of Natural Geography Project of Gansu
Corresponding Authors: LIU Puxing     E-mail: zhonghua0403@126.com;fmlpx@nwnu.edu.cn
Issue Date: 22 December 2016
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CHAI Zhonghua
LIU Puxing
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CHAI Zhonghua,LIU Puxing. Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(12): 1647-1660.
URL:  
http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-016-1350-8     OR     http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2016/V26/I12/1647
Figure 1  The distribution of meteorological stations in Chinese oases
Figure 2  Trends in inter-annual variation in the start (a) and end pentad (b) as well as pentads of cold period (c) in Chinese oases
Decade Start pentad (p) End pentad (p) Pentads (p)
1960-1969 -0.71 0.34 1.17
1970-1979 -0.25 0.54 0.67
1980-1989 -0.26 0.34 0.49
1990-1999 0.21 -0.14 -0.34
2000-2009 0.61 -0.9 -1.47
2010-2014 0.76 -0.39 -1.39
Table 1  Decadal mean anomalies of the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases
Figure 3  Trends in the spatial distribution of the start (a) and end pentad (b) as well as pentads of cold period (c) in Chinese oases
M-K Sliding t test Cumulative anomaly method
The start pentad Entire region 1990/1991 - 1990
Beijiang 1990/1991 - 1991
Nanjiang 1988 1987/1993 1993
Hexi 1976/1981/1992 - 1992
Hetao 1970/1987/1993 1967/1969/1971 1993
Qaidam - 1993/1994 1993
Alxa 1983/1984/1987 1971/1992 1992
The end pentad Entire region 1998 - 1998
Beijiang 2007/2009/2012 1964/1971/1982 2007
Nanjiang 1997 1984/1997/2010 1995
Hexi 1992/1994/1995 1995 1985
Hetao 1992/1995 1981/1984/1990/1997 1995
Qaidam 1994 1979/1994 1994
Alxa 2007/2010/2012 1969/1989/2007 1990
Pentads Entire region 1994 1971 1994
Beijiang 1999 1970/2006/2007 1999
Nanjiang 1997 1967/1971/1991 1997
Hexi 1995 1971/1972/1995/2007 1995
Hetao 1995/2005/2007/2010 2007 1993
Qaidam - 1993/1996 1993
Alxa 1999 1969/1987/1989/1999 1986
Table 2  Mutation analysis of the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases
Figure 4  Morlet wavelet power spectra showing the periods of the start (a) and end pentad (b) as well as pentads of cold period (c) in Chinese oases
TPI APVAI APVII WCI SHI SASM CDE
The start pentad Beijiang 0.26* -0.454** -0.307* 0.213 -0.361** -0.001 0.467**
Nanjiang 0.287* -0.454** -0.41** 0.175 -0.249 -0.123 0.389**
Hexi 0.387** -0.371** -0.21 0.207 -0.327* -0.118 0.422**
Hetao 0.355** -0.288* -0.13 0.178 -0.077 -0.063 0.23
Qaidam 0.339** -0.218 -0.055 0.122 -0.439** -0.345** 0.627**
Alxa 0.392** -0.578** -0.431** 0.186 -0.239 -0.01 0.374**
The end pentad Beijiang -0.23 0.322* 0.247 -0.414** -0.045 -0.145 -0.313*
Nanjiang -0.525** 0.219 0.26* -0.385** -0.1 0.083 -0.389**
Hexi -0.248 0.382** 0.134 -0.235 -0.173 -0.138 -0.259*
Hetao -0.298* 0.302* 0.114 -0.239 -0.105 0.095 -0.235
Qaidam -0.324* 0.308* 0.118 0.05 -0.164 0.297* -0.451**
Alxa -0.241 0.336** 0.436** -0.306* -0.277* -0.138 -0.27*
Pentads Beijiang -0.219 0.617** 0.448** -0.021 0.141 0.001 -0.451**
Nanjiang -0.406** 0.431** 0.342** -0.229 0.145 0.045 -0.522**
Hexi -0.358** 0.609** 0.424** -0.153 0.21 0.179 -0.402**
Hetao -0.305* 0.533** 0.37** -0.175 0.118 0.055 -0.239
Qaidam -0.376** 0.428** 0.212 -0.239 0.1 0.26* -0.567**
Alxa -0.371** 0.523** 0.335* -0.088 0.045 0.045 -0.351**
Table 3  Correlation coefficients for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases and possible impact factors
Figure 5  Mean change trends in the start (a) and end pentad (b) as well as pentads of cold period (c) at different longitudes, latitudes, and altitude ranks over Chinese oases
Figure 6  Relationship between trend magnitudes of the start (a), (d), end (b), (e), and pentads of cold period(c), (f) and average temperature in Chinese oases
Start pentad (p) End pentad (p) Pentads (p)
Before abrupt change 62.7 14.6 24.8
After abrupt change 63.6 13.8 23
Influence Postponed Advanced Shortened
Table 4  Mean values of the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period between 1960 and 1986, and between 1988 and 2014 in Chinese oases
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