A graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity in China

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1292-1

Abstract

Abstract:

Precipitation heterogeneity has a nontrivial influence on human life. Many studies have analyzed precipitation heterogeneity but none have proposed a systematic graded index for its evaluation, and therefore, its true characteristics have not been expressed. After comparisons of various methods, the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) method was selected to study precipitation heterogeneity. In addition to the PCD, normal distribution functions, cumulative frequencies, and percentiles were used to establish a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity. A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity was performed, and its spatiotemporal variation in China from 1960 to 2013 was analyzed. The results indicated that (1) seven categories of precipitation heterogeneity were identified (high centralization, moderate centralization, mild centralization, normal, mild dispersion, moderate dispersion, and high dispersion) and (2) during the study period, the precipitation in more parts of China tended to be normal or dispersed, which is beneficial to human activities.

Key words: heterogeneity, precipitation concentration degree, evaluation index, comprehensive evaluation, China

Yonglin LIU, Junping YAN, Minyi CEN, Qunsheng FANG, Zhengyao LIU, Yingjie LI. A graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity in China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(6): 673-693.

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Large scale region	Provincial administrative region
Northeast China	Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang
Inner Mongolia	Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Northwest China	Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Qinghai, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
North China	Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin
East China	Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai
Jiangnan region	Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang
Southwest China	Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou
South China	Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong, Hainan, Hongkong Special Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region, Taiwan
Tibet	Tibet Autonomous Region

Grade	Types	Z-index	Real frequency (%)	Cumulative frequency (%)
1	Severe flood	Z>1.645	5	100
2	Moderate flood	1.037<Z≤1.645	10	95
3	Mild flood	0.842<Z≤1.037	15	80
4	Normal	-0.842≤Z≤0.842	40	70
5	Mild drought	-1.037≤Z<-0.842	15	30
6	Moderate drought	-1.645≤Z<-1.037	10	15
7	Severe drought	Z<-1.645	5	5

Climatic stage	Skewness coefficient	Kurtosis coefficient	Climatic stage	Skewness coefficient	Kurtosis coefficient
1960-1989	-0.426	-0.282	1973-2002	-0.419	-0.284
1961-1990	-0.419	-0.301	1974-2003	-0.416	-0.281
1962-1991	-0.424	-0.264	1975-2004	-0.424	-0.246
1963-1992	-0.414	-0.267	1976-2005	-0.446	-0.218
1964-1993	-0.398	-0.294	1977-2006	-0.453	-0.222
1965-1994	-0.396	-0.318	1978-2007	-0.450	-0.206
1966-1995	-0.410	-0.292	1979-2008	-0.447	-0.196
1967-1996	-0.405	-0.268	1980-2009	-0.439	-0.224
1968-1997	-0.405	-0.285	1981-2010	-0.441	-0.228
1969-1998	-0.420	-0.292	1982-2011	-0.443	-0.204
1970-1999	-0.424	-0.259	1983-2012	-0.450	-0.193
1971-2000	-0.428	-0.253	1984-2013	-0.446	-0.213
1972-2001	-0.439	-0.254

Transforationr method	Square	Cubic	Square root	Cube root	Reciprocal	Logarithm	arcsine	Square root arcsine	Z-index
Skewness coefficient	0.24	0.81	-0.92	-1.15	87.16	-1.91	-0.07	-0.39	-0.10
Kurtosis coefficient	-0.47	0.60	0.98	1.97	9640.34	8.03	-0.18	0.16	-0.40

Climatic stage	5%	15%	30%	70%	85%	95%
1960-1989	0.275	0.390	0.482	0.654	0.729	0.806
1961-1990	0.269	0.385	0.477	0.651	0.725	0.804
1962-1991	0.272	0.388	0.479	0.652	0.726	0.804
1963-1992	0.272	0.386	0.478	0.650	0.724	0.802
1964-1993	0.271	0.385	0.477	0.648	0.723	0.800
1965-1994	0.268	0.383	0.475	0.648	0.723	0.802
1966-1995	0.273	0.387	0.479	0.651	0.725	0.803
1967-1996	0.273	0.387	0.479	0.651	0.725	0.803
1968-1997	0.270	0.385	0.478	0.651	0.725	0.804
1969-1998	0.270	0.385	0.477	0.650	0.725	0.803
1970-1999	0.271	0.386	0.478	0.650	0.724	0.803
1971-2000	0.268	0.383	0.476	0.649	0.723	0.802
1972-2001	0.266	0.382	0.474	0.648	0.723	0.802
1973-2002	0.269	0.385	0.477	0.649	0.723	0.801
1974-2003	0.269	0.383	0.475	0.648	0.722	0.800
1975-2004	0.271	0.384	0.475	0.647	0.720	0.798
1976-2005	0.272	0.386	0.477	0.647	0.720	0.799
1977-2006	0.271	0.384	0.475	0.646	0.719	0.798
1978-2007	0.271	0.384	0.475	0.646	0.719	0.797
1979-2008	0.271	0.383	0.474	0.645	0.718	0.796
1980-2009	0.269	0.382	0.472	0.643	0.717	0.795
1981-2010	0.267	0.381	0.471	0.642	0.716	0.794
1982-2011	0.269	0.382	0.471	0.642	0.715	0.793
1983-2012	0.268	0.381	0.471	0.641	0.714	0.793
1984-2013	0.267	0.381	0.472	0.643	0.717	0.795
Average	0.270	0.384	0.476	0.647	0.721	0.800
Standard deviation	0.002	0.002	0.003	0.003	0.004	0.004