Spatio-temporal changes in agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1290-3

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951- 2010 released by the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluated the changes in the heat and moisture conditions of crop growth. An average value of ten years was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in the agricultural hydrothermal conditions within a 1 km² grid. Next, the inter-annual changing trend was simulated by regression analysis of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that the contour lines for temperature and accumulated temperatures (the daily mean temperature ≥0°C) increased significantly in most parts of China, and that the temperature contour lines had all moved northwards over the past 60 years. At the same time, the annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, though more than half of the meteorological stations did not pass the significance test. However, the mean temperatures in the hottest month and the coldest month exhibited a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010. In addition, the 0°C contour line gradually moved from the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Basin to the Yellow River Basin. All these changes would have a significant impact on the distribution of crops and farming systems. Although the mechanisms influencing the interactive temperature and precipitation changes on crops were complex and hard to distinguish, the fact remained that these changes would directly cause corresponding changes in crop characteristics.

Key words: temperature, precipitation, accumulated temperature, agricultural condition, China

Yaoping CUI, Xiaoju NING, Yaochen QIN, Xu LI, Youmin CHEN. Spatio-temporal changes in agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(6): 643-657.

Figures/Tables 12

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Climatic factor	Examination	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s
Annual mean temperature	Mean error of prediction	0.025	0.027	0.023	0.023	0.028	0.027
Annual mean temperature	Standard root mean square error	1.864	1.284	1.382	1.433	1.376	1.405
Mean temperature in the hottest month	Mean error of prediction	0.016	0.021	0.019	0.020	0.016	0.017
Mean temperature in the hottest month	Standard root mean square error	1.293	1.486	1.378	1.505	1.225	1.306
Mean temperature in the coldest month	Mean error of prediction	0.023	0.026	0.021	0.026	0.036	0.036
Mean temperature in the coldest month	Standard root mean square error	1.283	0.938	0.095	0.982	1.088	1.085
Accumulated temperature over 0°C	Mean error of prediction	4.586	5.184	4.589	4.692	3.896	4.104
Accumulated temperature over 0°C	Standard root mean square error	1.92	1.298	1.37	1.412	1.372	1.421
Annual precipitation	Mean error of prediction	3.679	1.726	0.704	2.4	2.008	2.07
Annual precipitation	Standard root mean square error	1.834	1.44	1.406	1.496	1.341	1.268

Climatic factors	Statistical factors	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s
Annual mean temperature	Standard deviation	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.6	6.5	6.5
Annual mean temperature	Coefficient of variation	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5
Mean temperature in the hottest month	Standard deviation	4.9	5.1	5.1	5.0	4.9	4.8
Mean temperature in the hottest month	Coefficient of variation	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Mean temperature in the coldest month	Standard deviation	10.6	10.1	10.2	10.2	10.1	10.1
Mean temperature in the coldest month	Coefficient of variation	-3.1	-2.7	-3.3	-3.9	-4.7	-5.2
Accumulated temperature over 0°C	Standard deviation	1798	1795	1825	1814	1824	1831
Accumulated temperature over 0°C	Coefficient of variation	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
Annual precipitation	Standard deviation	545.5	527	550	541	572.3	529
Annual precipitation	Coefficient of variation	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.6

Percentage / %	Regression coefficients b>0 and f (significance)	Regression coefficients b>0 and f (non significance)	Regression coefficients b<0 and f (significance)	Regression coefficients b<0 and f (non significance)
Annual mean temperature	85.94	0.86	10.15	3.06
Mean temperature in the hottest month	34.19	10.17	31.86	23.77
Mean temperature in the coldest month	81.94	0.12	16.09	1.84
Accumulated temperature over 0°C	86.32	0.49	11.11	2.08
Annual precipitation	6.72	10.87	35.53	46.89

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