Uncertainty of forest biomass carbon patterns simulation on provincial scale: A case study in Jiangxi Province, China

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1286-z

Abstract

Abstract:

Forest vegetation carbon patterns are significant for evaluating carbon emission and accumulation. Many methods were used to simulate patterns of forest vegetation carbon stock in previous studies, however, uncertainty apparently existed between results of different methods, even estimates of same method in different studies. Three previous methods, including Atmosphere-vegetation interaction model 2 (AVIM2), Kriging, Satellite-data Based Approach (SBA), and a new method, High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM), were used to simulate forest vegetation carbon stock patterns in Jiangxi Province in China. Cross-validation was used to evaluate methods. The uncertainty and applicability of the four methods on provincial scale were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that HASM had the highest accuracy, which improved by 50.66%, 33.37% and 28.58%, compared with AVIM2, Kriging and SBA, respectively. Uncertainty of simulation of forest biomass carbon stock was mainly derived from modeling error, sampling error and statistical error of forest area. Total forest carbon stock, carbon density and forest area of Jiangxi were 288.62 Tg, 3.06 kg/m² and 94.32×10⁹ m² simulated by HASM, respectively.

Key words: forest carbon stock, HASM, AVIM2, Kriging, Satellite-data Based Approach (SBA)

Yifu WANG, Tianxiang *YUE, Yuancai LEI, Zhengping DU, Mingwei ZHAO. Uncertainty of forest biomass carbon patterns simulation on provincial scale: A case study in Jiangxi Province, China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(5): 568-584.

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Tree species	C_C
Pinus massoniana	0.4596
Pinus densata	0.5009
Pinus elliottii	0.4596
Pinus taeda	0.4596
Cunninghamia lanceolata	0.5201
Coniferous mixed forest	0.5101
Broad-leaved and coniferous mixed forest	0.4978
Cinnamomum camphora	0.4916
Schima superba	0.4916
Liquidambar formosana	0.4916
Oaks	0.5004
Sassafras tzumu	0.4848
Eucalyptus robusta	0.5253
Populus	0.4956
Broad-leaved mixed forest	0.49

GlobCover 2009 land cover map		GLC2000
Class	Class name	Class	Class name
20	Mosaic cropland (50%-70%) / vegetation (grassland/shrubland/forest) (20%-50%)	1	Tree cover: broad-leaved, evergreen
30	Mosaic vegetation (grassland/shrubland/forest) (50%-70%) / cropland (20%-50%)	2	Tree cover: broad-leaved, deciduous, closed
40	Closed to open (>15%) broad-leaved evergreen or semi-deciduous forest (>5 m)	3	Tree cover: broad-leaved, deciduous, open
50	Closed (>40%) broad-leaved deciduous forest (>5 m)	4	Tree cover: needle-leaved, evergreen
60	Open (15%-40%) broad-leaved deciduous forest/woodland (>5 m)	5	Tree cover: needle-leaved, deciduous
70	Closed (>40%) needle-leaved evergreen forest (>5 m)	6	Tree cover: mixed-leaved type
90	Open (15%-40%) needle-leaved deciduous or evergreen forest (>5 m)	7	Tree cover: regularly flooded, fresh water
100	Closed to open (>15%) mixed broad-leaved and needle-leaved forest (>5 m)	8	Tree cover: regularly flooded, saline water
110	Mosaic forest or shrubland (50%-70%) / grassland (20%-50%)	9	Mosaic: Tree cover / Other natural vegetation
120	Mosaic grassland (50%-70%) / forest or shrubland (20%-50%)	10	Tree cover: burnt

Methods	MAE (kg/m^-2)	MRE (%)
AVIM2	2.63	79.79
Kriging	2.06	62.5
SBA	1.9	57.71
HASM	0.96	29.13

Methods	Components	Area (10⁹ m²)	Carbon density (kg/m²)	Carbon stock (Tg)	Periods	References
Volume-derived	Forest stands	78.93	2.72	214.70	2001-2005	Li X et al., 2011
Volume-derived	Forest	100.33	2.63	263.87	2001-2005	Li X et al., 2011
Volume-derived	Forest stands		3.00		2004-2008	Li H K et al., 2011
Volume-derived	Forest			289.07	2004-2008	Li H K et al., 2011
Volume-derived	Forest	99.80	2.67	297.97	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Forest stands	76.81	3.02	231.97	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Needle-leaved forests	47.05	2.60	122.33	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Broad-leaved forests	21.83	3.84	83.82	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Mixed-leaved forests	7.94	3.25	25.82	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Economic forests	12.03	1.19	14.26	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Bamboos	8.52	2.06	17.54	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Woodlands	0.45	0.99	0.44	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Shrub forests	1.99	0.99	1.96	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Trees in non-forest			31.80	2004-2008	This study
Volume-derived	Forest stands	72.78	2.86	208.15	1999-2003	This study
AVIM2	Forest	94.32	3.71	349.93	2004-2008	This study
Kriging	Forest	94.32	3.04	286.73	2004-2008	This study
SBA	Forest	94.32	3.25	306.54	2004-2008	This study
HASM	Forest	94.32	3.06	288.62	2004-2008	This study
HASM	Forest	94.32	2.88	271.64	1999-2003	This study

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