Land use transitions and their dynamic mechanism: The case of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1283-2

Abstract

Abstract:

Land use transition refers to changes in land use morphology, including dominant morphology and recessive morphology, of a particular region over a period of time driven by various factors. Recently, issues related to land use transition in China have attracted interest among a wide variety of researchers as well as government officials. This paper examines the patterns of land use transition and their dynamic mechanism in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000-2010. First, the spatio-temporal patterns of land use transition, their characteristics and the laws governing them were analyzed. Second, based on the established conceptual framework for analyzing the dynamic mechanism of land use transition, a spatial econometric regression analysis method was used to analyze the dynamic mechanism of the five types of major land use transition in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain at the county level. Land use pattern changes in the study area were characterized by an increase in construction land, water body and forested land, along with a decrease in farmland, unused land and grassland. The changes during 2000-2005 were much more significant than those during 2005-2010. In terms of factors affecting land use transitions, natural factors form the basis, and they have long-term effects. Socio-economic factors such as population and GDP, however, tend to determine the direction, structure, size and layout of land use transition over shorter time periods. Land law and policy factors play a mandatory guiding and restraining role in land use transitions, so as to improve the overall efficiency of land use. Land resource engineering is also an important tool to control land use transitions. In general, the five types of major land use transition were the result of the combined action of various physical, social and economic factors, of which traffic condition and location condition had the most significant effects, i.e. they were the common factors in all land use transitions. Understanding the spatio-temporal process of land use transitions and their dynamic mechanisms is an important foundation for utilizing land resources, protecting regional ecological environment and promoting sustainable regional socio-economic development.

Key words: land use transition, dynamic mechanism, farming area, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Yongqiang LIU, Hualou *LONG. Land use transitions and their dynamic mechanism: The case of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(5): 515-530.

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LULC type in 2000	LULC type in 2010
LULC type in 2000	Farmland	Forested land	Grassland	Water body	Construction land	Unused land	Total
Farmland	25235074	320182	155761	502219	2806220	46919	29066375
Forested land	222594	1542866	99994	18297	68499	6538	1958788
Grassland	193778	147565	1358491	33527	76311	57686	1867359
Water body	200816	20237	25600	800867	68214	30148	1145882
Construction land	927849	36499	31946	77544	3341342	8487	4423668
Unused land	169250	6592	15783	23804	69856	63729	349013
Total	26949362	2073941	1687575	1456258	6430442	213506	38811084

LULC type	Loss or gain in 2010 (%)	Type (1)	Percent (%)	Type (2)	Percent (%)	Type (3)	Percent (%)	Type (4)	Percent (%)	Type (5)	Percent (%)
FL	-7.28	CL	73.24	WB	13.11	FL	8.36	GL	4.07	UL	1.22
FR	5.88	FL	60.29	GL	27.79	CL	6.87	WB	3.81	UL	1.24
GL	-9.63	FL	38.08	FR	29.00	CL	15.00	UL	11.34	WB	6.59
WB	27.09	FL	76.63	CL	11.83	GR	5.12	UL	3.63	FL	2.79
CL	45.36	FL	90.84	GL	2.47	UL	2.26	FL	2.22	WB	2.21
UL	-38.83	FL	59.33	CL	24.49	WB	8.34	GL	5.53	FL	2.31

Spatial dependence test	FL to CL	FL to FR	FL to WB	GL to FL	UL to FL
Lagrange Multiplier (lag)	8.0688^***	5.1099^**	24.4261^***	16.5650^***	2.9741^*
Robust LM (lag)	9.4343^***	3.2083^*	3.9966^**	25.0583^***	15.7590^***
Lagrange Multiplier (error)	2.4292	2.8466^*	20.8213^***	4.0138^**	0.4368
Robust LM (error)	3.7947^*	0.9451	0.3918	12.5071^***	13.2217^***

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