Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2016, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 339-354.doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1272-5
• Orginal Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Xiaoli SHI1,3(), Wei WANG1,3, Wenjiao Shi2(
)
Received:
2015-09-08
Accepted:
2015-10-20
Online:
2016-07-25
Published:
2016-07-25
About author:
Author: Shi Xiaoli, PhD and Associate Professor, specialized in climate change. E-mail:
*Corresponding author: Shi Wenjiao, PhD and Associate Professor, E-mail:
Supported by:
Xiaoli SHI, Wei WANG, Wenjiao Shi. Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(3): 339-354.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks
Table 1
Methods for identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland change"
Methods | Study areas | Periods | Models | Literatures |
---|---|---|---|---|
Model analysis | China | 2000-2005 | CLUE-S, Dinamica EGO | Gao and Yi, 2012 |
Europe | 2000-2050 | ROIMPEL, SFARMMOD | Audsley et al., 2006 | |
Global | 2000-2080 | AEZ, BLS | Tubiello and Fischer, 2007 | |
Vietnam | 2007-2030 | CLUE, MAGNET | Rutten et al., 2014 | |
Mathematical statistical method | Jamaica | 1942-2010 | Logistic regression | Newman et al., 2014 |
Mississippi, USA | 1938-2010 | Stepwise logistic regression | Schweizer and Matlack, 2014 | |
Taibus Banner, China | 2008-2009 | Logistic regression | Hao et al., 2010 | |
Jiangsu Province, China | 2000-2008 | Principal component analysis, linear regression | Du et al., 2014 | |
Amazon, Brazil | 2001-2012 | Fixed effects panel regressions | Gollnow and Lakes, 2014 | |
Fuyang City, China | 1999-2006 | Random effects model, fixed effects model | Zhong et al., 2011 | |
Ireland | 1993-2007 | Random effects model, spatial autoregressive random effects model | Upton et al., 2014 | |
Bohai Rim | 2010 | Linear regression, spatial error model, spatial lag model, geographically weighted regression model | Wu et al., 2014 | |
Jiangxi Province | 1988-2005 | Mechanism model of land conversion | Zhan et al., 2010 | |
China | 1996-2011 | STIRPAT model | Zhang and Chen, 2014 | |
Framework analysis | Swiss | 1930-2000 | System definition, system analysis, and system synthesis framework | Hersperger and Bürgi, 2009 |
Portugal, Sweden | 1950-2010 | Pressures-Frictions-Attractors-Triggers | Beilin et al., 2014 | |
Index assessment | Northern Iran | 1967-2002 | Land use change area ratio | Kelarestaghi and Jeloudar, 2011 |
Swiss Alps | Past 120 years | Rates of landscape change | Schneeberger et al., 2007 | |
Difference comparison | China | 1980-2000 | Constant eco-region in the 1980s | Gao and Liu, 2006 |
Sahel | 1982-2003 | Residuals trend of NDVI (NDVI RESTREND) | Herrmann et al., 2005 | |
South Africa | 1985-2003 | Rain-Use Efficiency, NDVI RESTREND | Wessels et al., 2007 | |
Ordos region, China | 1981-2000 | NPP RESTREND | Xu et al., 2009 |
[1] |
Audsley E, Pearn K R, Simota Cet al., 2006. What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not? Environmental Science & Policy, 9(2): 148-162.
doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.008 |
[2] | Beilin R, Lindborg R, Stenseke Met al., 2014. Analysing how drivers of agricultural land abandonment affect biodiversity and cultural landscapes using case studies from Scandinavia, Iberia and Oceania.Land Use Policy, 36: 60-72. |
[3] |
Benini L, Bandini V, Marazza Det al., 2010. Assessment of land use changes through an indicator-based approach: A case study from the Lamone river basin in Northern Italy.Ecological Indicators, 10(1): 4-14.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2009.03.016 |
[4] |
Briner S, Elkin C, Huber Ret al., 2012. Assessing the impacts of economic and climate changes on land-use in mountain regions: A spatial dynamic modeling approach. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 149: 50-63.
doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2011.12.011 |
[5] |
Bürgi M, Hersperger A M, Schneeberger N, 2004. Driving forces of landscape change: Current and new directions.Landscape Ecology, 19(8): 857-868.
doi: 10.1007/s10980-005-0245-3 |
[6] |
Burke M B, Lobell D B, Guarino L, 2009. Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation.Global Environmental Change, 19(3): 317-325.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003 |
[7] |
Cai Y L, 2001. A study on land use/cover change: The need for a new integrated approach.Geographical Research, 20(6): 645-652. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/yj2001060001 |
[8] |
Chen C Q, Qian C R, Deng A Xet al., 2012. Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China.European Journal of Agronomy, 38: 94-103.
doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2011.07.003 |
[9] | Chen H J, Deng L J, Li H Cet al., 2010. Research on coordination between the urbanization development and cultivated land change in Chengdu City.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 26(1): 312-316. (in Chinese) |
[10] |
Corbelle R E, Crecente M R, Santé R I, 2012. Multi-scale assessment and spatial modelling of agricultural land abandonment in a European peripheral region: Galicia (Spain), 1956-2004.Land Use Policy, 29(3): 493-501.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.08.008 |
[11] | Díaz G I, Nahuelhual L, Echeverría Cet al., 2011. Drivers of land abandonment in Southern Chile and implications for landscape planning.Landscape and Urban Planning, 99(3): 207-217. |
[12] |
Dong J W, Liu J Y, Tao F Let al., 2009. Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000.Climate Research, 40(1): 37-48.
doi: 10.3354/cr00823 |
[13] |
Du X D, Jin X B, Yang X Let al., 2014. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving force in Jiangsu Province.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11: 3215-3232.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph110303215 pmid: 3987031 |
[14] |
Ewert F, Porter J R, Rounsevell M, 2007. Crop models, CO2, and climate change.Science, 315(5811): 459-460.
doi: 10.1126/science.315.5811.459c pmid: 17255495 |
[15] |
Gao Z Q, Liu J Y, 2006. The LUCC responses to climatic changes in China from 1980 to 2000.Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(8): 865-872. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/s11442-006-0415-5 |
[16] | Gao Z Q, Yi W, 2012. Land use change in China and analysis of its driving forces using CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO model.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 28(16): 208-216. (in Chinese) |
[17] |
Gollnow F, Lakes T, 2014. Policy change, land use, and agriculture: The case of soy production and cattle ranching in Brazil, 2001-2012.Applied Geography, 55: 203-211.
doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.09.003 |
[18] |
Hao H G, Li X B, Tian Y J, 2010. Farmland use right transfer and its driving factors in agro-pastoral interlaced region.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 26(8): 302-307. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2010.08.051 |
[19] |
Herrmann S M, Anyamba A, Tucker C J, 2005. Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate.Global Environmental Change,15(4): 394-404.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.004 |
[20] |
Hersperger A M, Bürgi M, 2009. Going beyond landscape change description: Quantifying the importance of driving forces of landscape change in a Central Europe case study.Land Use Policy, 26(3): 640-648.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.08.015 |
[21] |
Hossell J E, Jones P J, Marsh J Set al., 1996. The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales.Geoforum, 27(2): 149-157.
doi: 10.1016/0016-7185(96)00005-X |
[22] |
Huang Y, Bao A M, Wang A Het al., 2009. The LUCC responses to climatic change and human activity in Xinjiang in recent 25 years.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 23(10): 116-122. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1016/S1003-6326(09)60084-4 |
[23] |
Huang Z H, Wu C F, Du X J, 2009. Empirical study of cultivated land change and socio-economic factors in China.Journal of Natural Resources, 24(2): 192-199. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2009.02.002 |
[24] |
IPCC. Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation,vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. In: Field C B, Barros V R, Dokken D Jet al. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
doi: 10.1074/jbc.M110.100735 |
[25] |
Jones P G, Thornton P K, 2009. Croppers to livestock keepers: Livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change.Environmental Science & Policy, 12(4): 427-437.
doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2008.08.006 |
[26] |
Kelarestaghi A, Jeloudar Z J, 2011. Land use/cover change and driving force analyses in parts of Northern Iran using RS and GIS techniques.Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 4(3/4): 401-411.
doi: 10.1007/s12517-009-0078-5 |
[27] |
Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P, 2010. Land use transition: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change.Land Use Policy, 27(2): 108-118.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.003 |
[28] | Lane A, Jarvis A, 2007. Changes in climate will modify the geography of crop suitability: Agricultural biodiversity can help with adaptation.SAT eJournal, 4(1): 1-12. |
[29] |
Li X B, 1999. Change of arable land area in China during the past 20 years and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources, 14(4): 329-333. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1999.04.007 |
[30] |
Liu J Y, Zhang Z X, Xu X Let al., 2009. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the early 21st century.Acta Geographica Sinica, 64(12): 1411-1420.(in Chinese)
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.12.001 |
[31] |
Liu Q, Chen L G, Yang Jet al., 2010. Econometric analysis on driving forces of cultivated land quantity change in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations.Resource Science, 32(9): 1734-1740. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1631/jzus.A0900773 |
[32] | Liu Z J, Yang X G, Wang W Fet al., 2010. The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China (IV): The possible impact of future climatic warming on the northern limits of spring maize in three provinces of Northeast China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 43(11): 2280-2291. (in Chinese) |
[33] |
Meng P, Hao J M, Zhou Net al., 2013. Difference analysis of effect of rapid urbanization on cultivated land changes in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 29(22): 1-10. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2013.22.001 |
[34] |
Müller D, Leitão P J, Sikor T, 2013. Comparing the determinants of cropland abandonment in Albania and Romania using boosted regression trees.Agricultural Systems, 117: 66-77.
doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.12.010 |
[35] |
Napton D E, Auch R F, Headley Ret al., 2010. Land changes and their driving forces in the Southeastern United States.Regional Environmental Change, 10(1): 37-53.
doi: 10.1007/s10113-009-0084-x |
[36] |
Newman M E, McLaren K P, Wilson B S, 2014. Long-term socio-economic and spatial pattern drivers of land cover change in a Caribbean tropical moist forest, the Cockpit Country, Jamaica. Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment, 186: 185-200.
doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.01.030 |
[37] |
Ohta S, Kimura A, 2007. Impacts of climate changes on the temperature of paddy waters and suitable land for rice cultivation in Japan.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 147(3/4): 186-198.
doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.07.009 |
[38] |
Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Yet al., 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.Nature, 467: 43-51.
doi: 10.1038/nature09364 pmid: 20811450 |
[39] |
Prishchepov A V, Müller D, Dubinin Met al., 2013. Determinants of agricultural land abandonment in post-Soviet European Russia.Land Use Policy, 30(1): 873-884.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.06.011 |
[40] |
Rutten M, van Dijk M, van Rooij Wet al., 2014. Land use dynamics, climate change, and food security in Vietnam: A global-to-local modeling approach.World Development, 59: 29-46.
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.020 |
[41] |
Schneeberger N, Bürgi M, Hersperger A Met al., 2007. Driving forces and rates of landscape change as a promising combination for landscape change research: An application on the northern fringe of the Swiss Alps.Land Use Policy, 24(2): 349-361.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.04.003 |
[42] |
Schweizer P E, Matlack G R, 2014. Factors driving land use change and forest distribution on the coastal plain of Mississippi, USA.Landscape and Urban Planning, 121: 55-64.
doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.09.003 |
[43] |
Shi R X, Yang X H, 2010. Research on the climate background in arable land changed areas of China.Journal of Geo-information Science, 12(3): 309-314. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2010.00309 |
[44] |
Shi W J, Tao F L, Liu J Yet al., 2014. Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in Northern China since the 1970s?Climatic Change, 124(1/2): 163-177.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1088-1 |
[45] | Shiferaw A, 2011. Evaluating the land use and land cover dynamics in Borena Woreda of South Wollo Highlands, Ethiopia.Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 13(1): 1520-5509. |
[46] | Slätmo E, 2011. Driving forces of rural land use change. A review and discussion of the concept ‘driving forces’in landscape research. Occasional Papers 2011: 5 Department of Human and Economic Geography, University of Gothenburg. |
[47] |
Tang H J, Wu W B, Yang P, 2009. Recent progresses of land use and land cover change models.Acta Geographica Sinica, 64(4): 456-468. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.04.008 |
[48] |
Tsakovski S, Astel A, Simeonov V, 2010. Assessment of the water quality of a river catchment by chemometric expertise.Journal of Chemometrics, 24(11/12): 694-702.
doi: 10.1002/cem.1333 |
[49] |
Tubiello F N, Fischer G, 2007. Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000-2080.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(7): 1030-1056.
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.027 |
[50] |
Upton V, O'Donoghue C, Ryan M, 2014. The physical, economic and policy drivers of land conversion to forestry in Ireland.Journal of Environmental Management, 132: 79-86.
doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.10.017 pmid: 24291580 |
[51] | Wen J Q, Pu L J, Zhang R S, 2011. A spatial econometric analysis on differential changes and driving forces of arable land: A case study of Jiangsu Province.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 20(5): 628-634. (in Chinese) |
[52] |
Wessels K, Prince S, Malherbe Jet al., 2007. Can human-induced land degradation be distinguished from the effects of rainfall variability? A case study in South Africa.Journal of Arid Environments, 68(2): 271-297.
doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.05.015 |
[53] |
Wu L, Hou X Y, Xu X L, 2014. Analysis of spatical pattern of farmland and its impacting factors in coastal zone of Circum Bohai.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 30(9): 1-10. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.09.001 |
[54] |
Xie H L, Li B, 2008. Driving forces analysis of land-use pattern changes based on logistic regression model in the farming-pastoral zone: A case study of Ongiud Banner, Inner Mongolia.Geographical Research, 27(2): 294-304. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2008.02.007 |
[55] |
Xu D Y, Kang X W, Liu Z Let al., 2009. Assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region,China. Science in China. Series D:Earth Sciences, 39(4): 516-528. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/s11430-009-0079-y |
[56] |
Yan D, Schneider U A, Schmid Eet al., 2013. Interactions between land use change, regional development, and climate change in the Poyang Lake district from 1985 to 2035.Agricultural Systems, 119: 10-21.
doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.04.001 |
[57] |
Ye Y, Fang X Q, Khan M A U, 2012. Migration and reclamation in northeast China in response to climatic disasters in North China over the past 300 years.Regional Environmental Change, 12(1): 193-206.
doi: 10.1007/s10113-011-0245-6 |
[58] |
Yin R S, Xiang Q, Xu J Tet al., 2010. Modeling the driving forces of the land use and land cover changes along the Upper Yangtze River of China.Environmental Management, 45(3): 454-465.
doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9377-6 pmid: 19784698 |
[59] |
Yu Q Y, Wu W B, Tang H Jet al., 2011. Complex system theory and agent-based modeling: Progress in land change science.Acta Geographica Sinica, 66(11): 1518-1530. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/xb201111008 |
[60] |
Yu Q Y, Wu W B, Yang Pet al., 2013. Progress of agent-based agriculture land change modeling: A review.Acta Ecologica Sinica, 33(6): 1690-1700. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.5846/stxb201112131904 |
[61] |
Zhan J Y, Shi N N, Deng X Z, 2010. Driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi.Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(4): 485-493. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1017/S0004972710001772 |
[62] |
Zhang H D, Yu D S, Shi X Zet al., 2010. Dynamics of recent cultivated land in Zhejiang Province and relevant driving factors.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 21(12): 3120-3126. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1142.2010.40491 pmid: 21442998 |
[63] | Zhang L Q, Chen F K, 2014. Analysis and forecast on prospect about influence of urbanization gradual progress on cultivated land in China based on Logistic model.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 30(4): 1-11. (in Chinese) |
[64] |
Zhang Y, Li X B, Song W, 2014. Determinants of cropland abandonment at the parcel, household and village levels in mountain areas of China: A multi-level analysis.Land Use Policy, 41: 186-192.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.05.011 |
[65] |
Zhong T Y, Huang X J, Zhang X Yet al., 2011. Temporal and spatial variability of agricultural land loss in relation to policy and accessibility in a low hilly region of Southeast China.Land Use Policy, 28(4): 762-769.
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.01.004 |
[1] | ZHANG Chi, WU Shaohong, LENG Guoyong. Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(8): 1219-1232. |
[2] | LIU Haimeng, FANG Chuanglin, FANG Kai. Coupled Human and Natural Cube: A novel framework for analyzing the multiple interactions between humans and nature [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 355-377. |
[3] | LIU Juan, YAO Xiaojun, LIU Shiyin, GUO Wanqin, XU Junli. Glacial changes in the Gangdisê Mountains from 1970 to 2016 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 131-144. |
[4] | BA Wulong, DU Pengfei, LIU Tie, BAO Anming, CHEN Xi, LIU Jiao, QIN Chengxin. Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 164-176. |
[5] | FAN Zemeng, BAI Ruyu, YUE Tianxiang. Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 3-17. |
[6] | CHEN Qihui, CHEN Hua, ZHANG Jun, HOU Yukun, SHEN Mingxi, CHEN Jie, XU Chongyu. Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 85-102. |
[7] | Martha Elizabeth APPLE, Macy Kara RICKETTS, Alice Caroline MARTIN. Plant functional traits and microbes vary with position on striped periglacial patterned ground at Glacier National Park, Montana [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(7): 1127-1141. |
[8] | Yuan ZHANG, Shuying ZANG, Li SUN, Binghe YAN, Tianpeng YANG, Wenjia YAN, E Michael MEADOWS, Cuizhen WANG, Jiaguo QI. Characterizing the changing environment of cropland in the Songnen Plain, Northeast China, from 1990 to 2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 658-674. |
[9] | Yujie LIU, Ya QIN, Quansheng GE. Spatiotemporal differentiation of changes in maize phenology in China from 1981 to 2010 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(3): 351-362. |
[10] | ZHONG Linsheng, YU Hu, ZENG Yuxi. Impact of climate change on Tibet tourism based on tourism climate index [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(12): 2085-2100. |
[11] | YU Ling, LIU Jiaming, LI Tao. Important progress and future prospects for studies on urban public recreational space in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(11): 1923-1946. |
[12] | GAO Jiangbo, JIAO Kewei, WU Shaohong. Investigating the spatially heterogeneous relationships between climate factors and NDVI in China during 1982 to 2013 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(10): 1597-1609. |
[13] | HU Yunfeng, ZHANG Yunzhi. Using 137Cs and 210Pbex to investigate the soil erosion and accumulation moduli on the southern margin of the Hunshandake Sandy Land in Inner Mongolia [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(10): 1655-1669. |
[14] | Danyang MA, Haoyu DENG, Yunhe YIN, Shaohong WU, Du ZHENG. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 29-48. |
[15] | Man ZHANG, Yaning CHEN, Yanjun SHEN, Baofu LI. Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 3-28. |
|