Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2016, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 171-187.doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1261-8

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Model-based analysis of spatio-temporal changes in land use in Northeast China

Tian XIA1,2(), Wenbin *WU1,2(), Qingbo ZHOU2, H. VERBURG Peter3, Qiangyi YU2, Peng YANG2, Liming YE4,5   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation, Hubei Province / College of Urban & Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture / Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    3. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, de Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    4. CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security / Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    5. Department of Geology and Soil Sciences (WE13), Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium;
  • Received:2015-05-25 Accepted:2015-09-16 Online:2016-02-25 Published:2016-02-25
  • About author:

    Author: Xia Tian (1981-), Associate Professor, specialized in remote sensing monitoring and simulation of the influence of the global changes in agriculture. E-mail: xiatian@mail.ccnu.edu.cn

    *Corresponding author: Wu Wenbin, Professor, E-mail: wuwenbin@caas.cn

  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China No.41201089.No.41271112;The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.CCNU15A05058;National Nonprofit Institute Research Grant of CAAS, No.IARRP-2015-28

Abstract:

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China (NEC). In total, 13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980-2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution, and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980-2000, with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000, with a slight increase during 2000-2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands, particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands, which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.

Key words: land use change, CLUE-S, Northeast China, two-way simulation