Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2015, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (8): 991-1002.doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1215-6
• Orginal Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Mingxing CHEN1(), Zhipeng TANG1, Yongping BAI2, Xiaoping ZHANG3,*(
)
Received:
2014-07-01
Accepted:
2014-11-02
Online:
2015-08-15
Published:
2015-07-17
Contact:
Xiaoping ZHANG
E-mail:chenmx@igsnrr.ac.cn;zhangxp@ucas.ac.cn
About author:
Author: Chen Mingxing (1982-), PhD and Associate Professor, specialized in urbanization and regional development. E-mail:
Supported by:
Mingxing CHEN, Zhipeng TANG, Yongping BAI, Xiaoping ZHANG. Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development: Parameter re-evaluation of the Chenery model[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(8): 991-1002.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks
Table 2
Characteristics of the empirical data of the 149 countries in 1990-2009"
No. of countries by size of population | Index | Sample | Min. | Max. | Median | Average | Standard |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total (149) | Urbanization | 2980 | 5.4 | 100 | 53.5 | 52.1 | 23.6 |
Economic level | 2980 | 200 | 67,200 | 4540 | 8832.6 | 10,443.6 | |
Large country (11) | Urbanization | 220 | 19.8 | 86.0 | 46.5 | 52.3 | 21.4 |
Economic level | 220 | 500 | 47,100 | 3230 | 8877.8 | 11,284.2 | |
Medium country (60) | Urbanization | 1200 | 8.9 | 97.4 | 53.9 | 51.4 | 23.7 |
Economic level | 1200 | 200 | 41,720 | 4115 | 7932.5 | 9380.3 | |
Small country (78) | Urbanization | 1560 | 5.4 | 100 | 53.2 | 52.7 | 23.8 |
Economic level | 1560 | 290 | 67,200 | 4960 | 9518.6 | 11,034.6 |
Table 3
Parameter estimates and test of the regression model"
Type (lag period) | C | α | β | γ | R2 | adjR2 | DW | F |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total (2) | 0.0246*** (10.476) | 1.8131*** (166.307) | -0.8215*** (-77.645) | 0.0011*** (6.607) | 0.9999 | 0.9999 | 2.13 | 1359778*** |
Large country (2) | 0.0153*** (3.799) | 1.8299*** (41.603) | -0.8349*** (-19.259) | 0.0007** (2.586) | 0.9999 | 0.9999 | 2.12 | 5134722*** |
Medium country (2) | 0.0088*** (3.786) | 1.8628*** (127.176) | -0.8661*** (-60.529) | 0.0006*** (3.215) | 0.9999 | 0.9999 | 2.15 | 4437116*** |
Small country (2) | 0.0347*** (8.584) | 1.7940*** (115.203) | -0.8052*** (-53.523) | 0.0011*** (4.298) | 0.9999 | 0.9999 | 2.13 | 831196*** |
Table 4
Comparison of the new model for 1990-2009 data and the Chenery model"
Similar per capita GNI | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Per capita GNI($) | <100 | 100 | 200 | 300 | 400 | 500 | 800 | 1000 | >1000 | |
Chenery | Urbanization rate (%) | 12.8 | 22.0 | 36.2 | 43.9 | 49.0 | 52.7 | 60.1 | 63.4 | 65.8 |
New relationship pattern | - | 11.8 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 16.1 | 17.8 | - | |
Similar urbanization rate | ||||||||||
Urbanization rate (%) | 12.8 | 22.0 | 36.2 | 43.9 | 49.0 | 52.7 | 60.1 | 63.4 | 65.8 | |
Chenery | Per capita GNI ($) | <100 | 100 | 200 | 300 | 400 | 500 | 800 | 1000 | >1000 |
New relationship pattern | 300 | 1500 | 2900 | 3900 | 4900 | 5800 | 9800 | 13,400 | 17,000 |
Table 5
New pattern of level of urbanization and economic development in 1990-2009"
Per capita GNI (USD) | 1000 | 2000 | 3000 | 4000 | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Urbanization rate (%) | 17.78 | 27.36 | 36.82 | 44.30 | 49.60 | 53.24 | 44.20 | 57.68 | 59.15 | 60.36 |
Per capita GNI (USD) | 12,000 | 14,000 | 16,000 | 18,000 | 20,000 | 22,000 | 24,000 | 26,000 | 28,000 | 30,000 |
Urbanization rate (%) | 62.31 | 63.87 | 65.21 | 66.38 | 67.42 | 68.37 | 69.23 | 70.03 | 70.77 | 71.46 |
1 | Ba Shusong, Xing Yujing, Yang Xianling, 2010. Urbanization and economic growth: A long-run view.Reformation & Strategy, 26(2):16-19. (in Chinese) |
2 | Chen Mingxing, Lu Dadao, Zha Liangsong, 2009a. Urbanization and economic development in China: An international comparison based on quadrant map approach.Geographical Research, 28(2): 464-474. (in Chinese) |
3 | Chen Mingxing, Lu Dadao, Zhang Hua, 2009b. Comprehensive evaluation and the driving factors of China’s urbanization.Acta Geographica Sinica, 64(4): 387-398. (in Chinese) |
4 | Chen Mingxing, Lu Dadao, Zha Liangsong, 2010. The comprehensive evaluation of China’s urbanization and effects on resources and environment.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(1): 17-30. |
5 | Chen Mingxing, Ye Chao, Zhou Yi, 2011. Urbanization rate and its policy implications: discussion and development of Northam’s curve.Geographical Research, 30(8): 1499-1507. (in Chinese) |
6 | Chen Mingxing, Liu Weidong, Tao Xiaoli, 2013. Evolution and assessment on China’s urbanization 1960-2010: Under-urbanization or over-urbanization?Habitat International, 38(2): 25-33. |
7 | Chen Mingxing, Huang Yongbin, Tang Zhipenget al., 2014. The provincial pattern of the relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 24(1): 33-45. |
8 | Chen Yanguang, 2011. Modelling the relationships between urbanization and economic development levels with three functions.Scientia Geographica Sinica, 31(1): 1-6. (in Chinese) |
9 | Chenery H, Moises Syrquin, Li Xinhua, et al., 1988. The Development Style: 1950-1970. Beijing: Economic Science Press. (in Chinese) |
10 | Fang Chuanglin, Wang Deli, 2011. Comprehensive measures and improvement of Chinese urbanization development quality.Geographical Research, 30(11): 1931-1946. (in Chinese) |
11 | Henderson JV, 2003. The urbanization process and economic growth: The so-what question.Journal of Economic Growth, 8(1): 47-71. |
12 | Li Xun, 2005. The effects of economic growth on Chinese urbanization: Panel data approach.Geographical Research, 24(3): 421-431. (in Chinese) |
13 | Li Yining, 2011. Views on China’s urbanization.Contemporary Finance & Economics, 314(1): 5-6. (in Chinese) |
14 | Liang Jinshe, 1999. A theoretical analysis of statistical relationship between urbanization and economic development.Journal of Natural Resources, 14(4): 351-354. (in Chinese) |
15 | Liu Weidong, Zhen Feng, 2004. Spatial implications of new information and communication technologies.Acta Geographica Sinica, 59(Suppl.): 67-76. (in Chinese) |
16 | Lu Dadao, Yao Shimou, Liu Hui, et al., 2007. China Regional Development Report 2006: Urbanization and Spatial Sprawl. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese) |
17 | Lu Lin, Ge Jingbing, 2006. Reflection on the research progress of tourism urbanization.Geographical Research, 25(4): 741-750. (in Chinese) |
18 | Shen Yuming, Qiu Ling, Wang Maojunet al., 2007. Industry relevancy analysis of producer services in China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 62(8): 821-830. (in Chinese) |
19 | Wang De, Peng Xuehui, 2004. Research on local urbanization process within Japan.Urban Planning, 28(11): 29-34. (in Chinese) |
20 | Wang De, Peng Xuehui, 2005. Local urbanization and the relation with economy.Urban Planning Overseas, 20(6): 38-43. (in Chinese) |
21 | Wang Zheng, Ma Cuifang, Wang Yinget al., 2003. A geographical investigation into knowledge spillovers between regions.Acta Geographica Sinica, 58(5): 773-780. (in Chinese) |
22 | Xu Xueqiang, Wang Xin, Yan Xiaopei, 2002. Technology flow in the Pearl River Delta: Dynamism, channels and models.Acta Geographica Sinica, 57(4): 489-496. (in Chinese) |
23 | Yao Shimou, Lu Dadao, Wang Conget al., 2011. Urbanization in China needs comprehensive scientific thinking: Exploration of the urbanization mode adapted to the special situation of China.Geographical Research, 30(11): 1947-1955. (in Chinese) |
24 | Yuki K, 2007. Urbanization, informal sector and development.Journal of Development Economics, 84(1): 76-103. |
25 | Zhang Ying, Zhao Min, 2003. Urbanization and economic development: review and extension of Hollis Chenery’s study.Urban Planning Forum, 146(4): 10-18. (in Chinese) |
26 | Zhao Min, Zhang Ying, 2009. Development and urbanization: A revisit of Chenery-Syrquin’s patterns of development.Annals of Regional Science, 43(4): 907-924. |
27 | Zhou Yixing, 1982. The laws of the relationship between urbanization and GDP.Population and Economics, (1): 28-33. (in Chinese) |
28 | Zhou Yixing, 2006. Thoughts on the speed of China’s urbanization.Urban Planning, 30(Suppl.1): 32-40. (in Chinese) |
[1] | FENG Yuxue, LI Guangdong. Interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(2): 298-324. |
[2] | FANG Chuanglin, CUI Xuegang, DENG Xiangzheng, LIANG Longwu. Urbanization and eco-environment coupling circle theory and coupler regulation [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(7): 1043-1059. |
[3] | SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of urbanization in China’s border areas [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(5): 775-793. |
[4] | SONG Xiaoqing, WEN Mengmeng, SHEN Yajing, FENG Qi, XIANG Jingwei, ZHANG Weina, ZHAO Guosong, WU Zhifeng. Urban vacant land in growing urbanization: An international review [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(4): 669-687. |
[5] | LIU Haimeng, FANG Chuanglin, FANG Kai. Coupled Human and Natural Cube: A novel framework for analyzing the multiple interactions between humans and nature [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 355-377. |
[6] | CUI Xuegang, FANG Chuanglin, LIU Haimeng, LIU Xiaofei, LI Yonghong. Dynamic simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling: Current knowledge and future prospects [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(2): 333-352. |
[7] | ZHANG Xinhuan, XU Wenqiang, XIANG Xinyi, ZHANG Zhiping, CUI Mingjie. Mechanism of interaction between urbanization and resource environment in Central Asia [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1723-1738. |
[8] | MA Haitao, SUN Zhan. Comprehensive urbanization level and its dynamic factors for five Central Asian countries [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1761-1780. |
[9] | HUANG Jinchuan, NA Ying, GUO Yu. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and ecological environment in Kazakhstan [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1802-1824. |
[10] | ZHOU Yannan, YANG Yu, SONG Zhouying, HE Ze, XIA Siyou, REN Yawen. Dynamic transition mechanism analysis of the impact of energy development on urbanization in Central Asia [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1825-1848. |
[11] | JING Cheng, TAO Hui, JIANG Tong, WANG Yanjun, ZHAI Jianqing, CAO Lige, SU Buda. Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 68-84. |
[12] | LYU Lachang, SUN Feixiang, HUANG Ru. Innovation-based urbanization: Evidence from 270 cities at the prefecture level or above in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(8): 1283-1299. |
[13] | Liying GUO, Liping DI, Qing TIAN. Detecting spatio-temporal changes of arable land and construction land in the Beijing-Tianjin corridor during 2000-2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 702-718. |
[14] | Li MA, Hualou LONG, Yingnan ZHANG, Shuangshuang TU, Dazhuan GE, Xiaosong TU. Agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development in China and their implications for rural vitalization [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(2): 163-179. |
[15] | ZHUANG Liang, YE Chao, HU Senlin. Spatial production and spatial dialectic: Evidence from the New Urban Districts in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(12): 1981-1998. |
|