Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development: Parameter re-evaluation of the Chenery model

doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1215-6

Abstract

Abstract:

Research has shown that there has been a significant change in the quantitative relationship between urbanization and economic development over the past 50 years. As a result of this change, the Chenery model is no longer capable of performing a comparative analysis of these parameters. We carried out a regression analysis of the normal form of the relation between urbanization and economic development on the basis of the Chenery model. We used empirical data from 149 countries and regions from 1990 to 2009 and adopted the double logarithmic model, introducing a time series variable for urbanization. From 1990 to 2009, with a per capita gross national income remaining between USD 1000 and 10,000, the urbanization rate changed from 17.78 to 60.36% and the relational matching data changed accordingly, although the upper limit of the rate of urbanization remained at about 75%. Urbanization in countries with a smaller population size was more affected by economic development than urbanization in countries with large and medium sized populations.

Key words: Chenery model, economic development, parameter re-evaluation, urbanization

Mingxing CHEN, Zhipeng TANG, Yongping BAI, Xiaoping ZHANG. Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development: Parameter re-evaluation of the Chenery model[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(8): 991-1002.

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No. of countries by size of population	Index	Sample	Min.	Max.	Median	Average	Standard
Total (149)	Urbanization	2980	5.4	100	53.5	52.1	23.6
	Economic level	2980	200	67,200	4540	8832.6	10,443.6
Large country (11)	Urbanization	220	19.8	86.0	46.5	52.3	21.4
	Economic level	220	500	47,100	3230	8877.8	11,284.2
Medium country (60)	Urbanization	1200	8.9	97.4	53.9	51.4	23.7
	Economic level	1200	200	41,720	4115	7932.5	9380.3
Small country (78)	Urbanization	1560	5.4	100	53.2	52.7	23.8
	Economic level	1560	290	67,200	4960	9518.6	11,034.6

Type (lag period)	C	α	β	γ	R²	adjR²	DW	F
Total (2)	0.0246^*** (10.476)	1.8131^*** (166.307)	-0.8215^*** (-77.645)	0.0011^*** (6.607)	0.9999	0.9999	2.13	1359778^***
Large country (2)	0.0153^*** (3.799)	1.8299^*** (41.603)	-0.8349^*** (-19.259)	0.0007^** (2.586)	0.9999	0.9999	2.12	5134722^***
Medium country (2)	0.0088^*** (3.786)	1.8628^*** (127.176)	-0.8661^*** (-60.529)	0.0006^*** (3.215)	0.9999	0.9999	2.15	4437116^***
Small country (2)	0.0347^*** (8.584)	1.7940^*** (115.203)	-0.8052^*** (-53.523)	0.0011^*** (4.298)	0.9999	0.9999	2.13	831196^***

Similar per capita GNI
	Per capita GNI($)	<100	100	200	300	400	500	800	1000	>1000
Chenery	Urbanization rate (%)	12.8	22.0	36.2	43.9	49.0	52.7	60.1	63.4	65.8
New relationship pattern	Urbanization rate (%)	-	11.8	12.2	12.8	13.3	14.0	16.1	17.8	-
Similar urbanization rate
	Urbanization rate (%)	12.8	22.0	36.2	43.9	49.0	52.7	60.1	63.4	65.8
Chenery	Per capita GNI ($)	<100	100	200	300	400	500	800	1000	>1000
New relationship pattern	Per capita GNI ($)	300	1500	2900	3900	4900	5800	9800	13,400	17,000

Per capita GNI (USD)	1000	2000	3000	4000	5000	6000	7000	8000	9000	10000
Urbanization rate (%)	17.78	27.36	36.82	44.30	49.60	53.24	44.20	57.68	59.15	60.36
Per capita GNI (USD)	12,000	14,000	16,000	18,000	20,000	22,000	24,000	26,000	28,000	30,000
Urbanization rate (%)	62.31	63.87	65.21	66.38	67.42	68.37	69.23	70.03	70.77	71.46

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