The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997-2011

doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1185-8

Abstract
Figures/Tables
References
Related Articles
Metrics

Download: PDF(943 KB) HTML
Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks

Abstract

As one of the key issues in China’s sustainable development, rapid urbanization and continuous economic growth are accompanied by a steady increase of water consumption and a severe urban water crisis. A better understanding of the relationship among urbanization, economic growth and water use change is necessary for Chinese decision makers at various levels to address the positive and negative effects of urbanization. Thus, we established a complete decomposition model to quantify the driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change for China and its 31 provincial administrative regions during the period of 1997-2011. The results show that, (1) China’s urbanization only contributed about 30% of the economic growth. Therefore, such idea as urbanization is the major driving force of economic growth may be weakened. (2) China’s urbanization increased 2352×10⁸ m³ of water use by increasing the economic aggregate. However, it decreased 4530×10⁸ m³ of water use by optimizing the industrial structure and improving the water use efficiency. Therefore, such idea as urbanization is the major driving force of water demand growth may be reacquainted. (3) Urbanization usually made greater contribution to economic and water use growth in the provincial administrative regions in east and central China, which had larger population and economic aggregate and stepped into the accelerating period of urbanization. However, it also made greater contribution to industrial structure optimization and water use efficiency improvement, and then largely decreased total water use. In total, urbanization had negative effects on water use growth in most provincial administrative regions in China, and the spatiotemporal differences among them were lessened on the whole. (4) Though urbanization helps to decrease water use for China and most provincial administrative regions, it may cause water crisis in urban built-up areas or urban agglomerations. Therefore, China should construct the water transfer and compensation mechanisms between urban and rural areas, or low and high density urban areas as soon as possible.

Keywords urbanization economic growth water demand complete decomposition model spatiotemporal difference water resources compensation

Fund:National Social Science Foundation of China, No.13&ZD027;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41101538

Issue Date: 24 June 2015

	Service

	E-mail this article
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors

	Chao BAO
	Xiaojie CHEN

Cite this article:

Chao BAO,Xiaojie CHEN. The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997-2011[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 530-544.

URL:

http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-015-1185-8 OR http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2015/V25/I5/530

Table 1 Driving effects of China’s population urbanization on economic growth from 1997 to 2011

Figure 1 Driving effects of population urbanization on economic growth by province in China

Year	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
China	30.0	27.0	44.6	30.4	33.0	31.2	32.6	31.1	35.4	24.0	33.0	33.7	29.8	32.4	31.6
Beijing	2.9	13.8	-19.7	-14.3	9.6	10.0	7.9	12.1	18.8	6.4	9.6	8.3	8.0	9.6	7.5
Tianjin	4.7	9.5	4.1	2.6	3.1	2.7	2.5	2.7	-0.9	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.0	2.1	2.3
Hebei	28.1	24.8	48.1	32.7	43.5	42.9	40.7	37.6	17.2	32.7	39.6	39.6	33.3	35.3	35.1
Shanxi	21.3	31.9	51.3	21.8	29.0	24.1	26.6	30.1	24.0	19.7	33.6	47.8	21.4	22.4	26.1
Inner Mongolia	29.3	17.5	32.0	22.4	12.0	12.1	10.7	9.9	10.0	11.9	12.8	13.5	15.1	15.6	13.7
Liaoning	10.5	-6.8	2.4	3.7	13.0	11.7	14.4	16.0	14.0	8.2	9.1	9.2	8.6	9.7	9.8
Jilin	1.9	-13.6	-10.5	-4.3	18.6	13.4	14.7	15.5	12.4	6.3	6.6	7.7	7.8	7.8	7.8
Heilongjiang	3.0	12.9	24.2	8.1	18.7	14.6	14.3	13.5	10.5	10.3	10.5	10.7	9.7	9.9	11.5
Shanghai	6.6	-21.3	4.1	29.1	7.7	0.1	0.0	0.1	26.8	4.7	6.2	6.4	4.6	5.0	6.3
Jiangsu	34.2	62.4	73.3	67.7	26.2	28.5	25.2	27.2	19.8	33.4	36.7	36.0	33.8	36.4	34.8
Zhejiang	47.7	48.0	53.7	19.1	24.4	23.5	21.6	29.7	15.0	21.6	29.1	31.4	23.7	29.2	27.0
Anhui	29.3	35.1	37.9	12.4	59.7	54.8	52.3	14.5	36.5	28.8	31.7	31.1	27.9	29.8	32.6
Fujian	33.7	36.7	29.1	27.3	24.8	24.4	22.9	25.5	45.1	24.1	27.0	27.7	24.4	26.4	27.9
Jiangxi	17.4	14.8	53.3	44.0	36.1	36.0	33.5	36.4	4.9	5.8	5.9	3.3	19.6	21.8	19.4
Shandong	9.5	22.2	18.0	16.8	19.2	24.3	28.9	30.6	27.3	25.8	29.3	28.4	27.6	30.0	26.5
Henan	27.0	12.6	22.5	19.7	35.5	32.6	27.9	27.1	30.2	25.2	29.7	32.5	28.9	30.2	28.5
Hubei	30.7	28.6	28.0	38.7	35.2	44.4	35.0	33.8	28.3	26.2	27.6	26.8	24.2	25.1	28.7
Hunan	36.5	33.3	38.2	20.2	55.6	44.9	46.8	44.7	7.1	27.4	29.3	29.6	28.0	31.2	31.4
Guangdong	29.6	26.1	11.9	10.4	19.2	15.1	16.5	16.6	19.9	23.2	29.4	28.9	21.6	24.1	21.6
Guangxi	30.7	26.8	19.5	38.3	28.6	27.0	20.9	43.7	42.9	46.7	36.5	34.0	31.3	35.0	35.0
Hainan	44.0	23.1	23.7	27.0	15.8	13.1	10.0	8.3	45.4	13.6	19.4	16.4	12.5	16.2	18.5
Chongqing	32.5	26.4	67.6	53.2	32.8	31.4	31.1	28.8	56.4	30.0	31.8	30.5	26.7	27.2	32.7
Sichuan	19.7	32.6	35.1	25.9	35.8	39.6	34.6	42.8	35.5	27.9	35.3	28.0	27.0	27.1	31.1
Guizhou	2.7	5.0	14.4	14.5	19.4	25.2	19.2	24.2	-2.5	12.1	15.7	15.7	14.3	12.6	13.8
Yunnan	37.6	49.9	67.8	37.3	38.9	35.3	40.4	38.1	25.4	29.7	33.4	29.8	29.5	27.0	33.2
Tibet	61.2	66.9	68.1	73.5	54.2	48.2	38.3	32.5	29.3	28.0	22.0	45.0	45.3	44.0	42.5
Shaanxi	39.1	29.5	55.4	30.6	33.6	34.3	20.7	25.9	10.9	20.2	19.6	23.0	21.6	22.4	23.6
Gansu	19.8	17.2	38.3	26.9	28.2	46.3	27.0	27.2	37.3	19.5	27.6	27.1	24.1	22.9	27.2
Qinghai	19.0	-9.6	-17.9	55.7	21.7	17.9	13.6	22.7	36.9	17.8	17.8	23.0	15.8	17.7	19.7
Ningxia	18.4	8.5	-13.9	2.1	35.1	32.3	33.7	32.8	14.7	18.5	18.6	19.5	17.4	19.1	19.5
Xinjiang	-9.9	6.0	-12.3	-9.8	19.6	19.4	25.5	19.1	19.2	18.7	20.6	26.8	21.2	19.0	17.2

Table 2 Comprehensive contribution rates of population urbanization to economic growth by province in China from 1997 to 2011 (%)

Table 3 Driving effects of population-economic urbanization on water use change in China from 1997 to 2011

Figure 2 Driving effects of population-economic urbanization on water use change by province in China

Year	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
China	-141	-117	-147	-156	-195	-267	-27	-143	-150	-359	-72	-112	-176	-115	-2177
Beijing	-2.2	-1.6	-3.5	-3.0	-2.3	-2.4	-2.8	-2.2	-1.9	-2.3	-1.5	-1.0	-2.2	-1.1	-29.9
Tianjin	-0.5	-2.8	-1.5	-1.1	-0.9	-1.4	-1.4	-1.7	-2.3	-2.4	-2.7	-2.2	-2.6	-2.0	-25.5
Hebei	-5.3	-8.2	-3.0	-3.3	-2.4	-4.5	-4.9	-5.4	-13.0	-11.4	-5.2	-6.8	-10.3	-7.3	-91.0
Shanxi	2.1	3.3	8.7	-2.1	3.2	-2.2	-2.9	-5.0	-1.5	-5.9	-1.9	0.6	1.6	-8.1	-10.0
Inner Mongolia	2.7	6.3	-5.0	-8.7	-12.6	-20.9	-12.5	-24.1	-20.3	-22.1	-16.5	-18.0	-13.6	-11.8	-177.3
Liaoning	9.9	-5.3	-13.7	-3.1	-1.0	-4.1	-4.3	-3.9	-6.1	-12.3	-8.3	-11.4	-9.7	-6.6	-79.9
Jilin	6.7	-7.4	29.7	-6.7	-1.2	-3.9	-2.8	-0.6	-6.8	-12.4	-5.4	-5.4	-5.9	-6.6	-28.5
Heilongjiang	4.7	-12.4	-21.2	-2.0	-1.9	-16.8	5.6	-4.4	-6.4	-18.5	-8.8	-11.4	-17.2	-11.5	-122.3
Shanghai	-2.2	-5.1	-1.6	1.3	-0.9	-2.2	-4.4	-5.9	0.0	-3.1	-1.9	-1.8	-4.3	-2.2	-34.2
Jiangsu	-24.8	7.6	8.3	9.1	-17.5	-39.0	-37.3	-26.3	-21.6	-20.4	-12.1	-12.4	-13.6	-11.4	-211.2
Zhejiang	-3.8	-2.9	-1.3	-6.3	-8.0	-13.2	-11.3	-9.9	-12.7	-12.2	-4.7	-5.7	-7.7	-3.8	-103.7
Anhui	-8.1	4.8	-8.9	-51.0	2.1	-9.8	3.4	-12.3	-9.2	-11.2	-18.7	2.9	-13.0	-12.3	-141.3
Fujian	-11.5	-1.0	-7.0	-5.0	-6.0	-8.2	-6.6	-6.0	-5.6	-8.0	-5.8	-5.0	-9.1	-5.0	-89.9
Jiangxi	-20.2	-0.4	5.8	-3.0	-6.2	-11.4	-5.8	-2.8	-1-.6	-112.2	-16.5	-17.1	-15.8	16.2	-199.9
Shandong	-11.6	-9.6	-14.8	-9.9	-17.3	-16.2	-11.1	-14.1	-7.0	-17.4	-9.4	-11.3	-12.0	-9.3	-171.0
Henan	0.0	-0.1	-8.1	-9.4	-5.7	-21.4	5.1	-5.4	-66.2	-14.8	-1.3	-4.8	-9.5	-8.1	-149.6
Hubei	-16.3	-17.0	-7.4	-4.5	-10.4	2.2	-0.7	-4.3	-7.1	-10.3	-4.7	-7.2	-11.1	-9.2	-107.9
Hunan	-14.6	-6.6	-6.9	-11.1	-9.1	-4.1	2.3	-2.5	-20.7	-18.7	-12.6	-12.8	-15.5	-11.4	-144.3
Guangdong	-11.4	-10.1	-29.7	-18.2	-18.3	-32.3	-25.4	-24.2	-24.5	-25.0	-11.2	-6.1	-16.5	-11.3	-264.0
Guangxi	-3.8	3.1	1.5	-6.9	-2.6	-14.0	-9.8	1.7	-6.0	-9.6	-9.6	-12.6	-14.6	-9.6	-92.8
Hainan	1.5	2.4	1.8	1.5	0.5	-0.2	-0.9	-2.2	0.6	-2.9	-0.5	-1.6	-3.6	-2.0	-5.6
Chongqing	-0.3	-0.8	1.1	0.6	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.5	1.3	0.8	0.3	-0.4	4.6
Sichuan	-6.0	-0.8	-4.2	-8.1	-3.4	-2.5	-3.6	-2.1	-8.4	-10.9	-6.7	-4.9	-10.0	-11.0	-82.7
Guizhou	-3.4	-2.9	-3.0	-3.1	-2.9	-1.6	-2.6	-2.5	-6.1	-6.8	-1.8	-3.9	-4.4	-9.1	-54.0
Yunnan	5.5	0.4	4.0	-1.5	-2.5	-1.6	-3.2	-0.3	-4.2	-4.7	-0.3	-5.7	-7.6	-5.8	-27.6
Tibet	-0.9	-0.4	1.3	-0.4	2.5	-2.1	-8.3	-3.9	-1.1	-1.7	-1.2	-2.8	-15.1	-2.5	-36.5
Shaanxi	1.5	-3.4	-0.3	-3.3	-2.2	-2.3	-0.7	-1.9	-3.4	-6.6	-4.3	-5.1	-5.2	-3.7	-40.8
Gansu	-3.3	-7.5	-4.4	-0.2	-0.1	-1.6	-1.1	-3.0	-11.7	-7.4	-1.4	-4.5	-5.3	-5.7	-57.2
Qinghai	-1.2	-1.6	-2.3	-0.3	-1.7	-0.8	-1.7	-1.3	-0.8	-2.2	-0.6	-1.3	-1.5	-1.9	-19.2
Ningxia	3.7	-4.8	-15.4	-4.7	-2.2	-8.1	-12.2	-1.1	-5.3	-5.1	-3.0	-3.3	-4.1	-4.2	-69.9
Xinjiang	-3.7	-56.9	-29.0	-32.7	-15.9	-9.5	-24.7	-19.8	-24.2	-23.4	-20.0	-14.2	-31.0	-26.4	-331.4

Table 4 Comprehensive contributions of population-economic urbanization on water use change by province in China from 1997 to 2011 (10⁸ m³)

1	Ang B W, Zhang F Q, 2000. A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies.Energy, 25(12): 1149-1176. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(00)00039-6
2	Bao C, 2012. Driving effects of water use change in oasis cities based on the urbanization perspective.Arid Land Geography, 35(6): 988-995. (in Chinese)
3	Bao C, Fang C L, 2006. Study on the quantitative relationship between urbanization and water resources utilization in the Hexi Corridor.Journal of Natural Resources, 21(2): 301-310. (in Chinese)
4	Bao C, Fang C L, 2007. Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water deficient regions: A case study of the Hexi Corridor, arid area of NW China.Ecological Economics, 62(3/4): 508-517. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.07.013
5	Bao C, Fang C L, 2009. Integrated assessment model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization and its application in arid area.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 19(2): 273-286. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11442-009-0273-z
6	Bao C, Fang C L, 2010. Interaction mechanism and control modes on urbanization and water resources exploitation and utilization.Urban Studies, 17(12): 19-23. (in Chinese)
7	Bao C, Fang C L, 2012. Water resources flows related to urbanization in China: Challenges and perspectives for water management and urban development.Water Resources Management, 26(2): 531-552. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9930-y
8	Bertinelli L, Black D, 2004. Urbanization and growth.Journal of Urban Economics, 56(1): 80-96. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2004.03.003
9	Brown L R, 2001. How water scarcity will shape the new century.Water Science and Technology, 43(4): 17-22.
10	Chen A P, Partridge M D, 2013. When are cities engines of growth in China? Spread and backwash effects across the urban hierarchy.Regional Studies, 47(8): 1313-1331. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2011.589831
11	Fang C Let al., 2009. Report on China’s Urbanization and the Guarantee of Resources and Eco-environment. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
12	Jenerette G D, Larsen L, 2006. A global perspective on changing sustainable urban water supplies.Global and Planetary Change, 50(3/4): 202-211. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.01.004
13	Jia S F, Zhang S F, Yang Het al., 2004. Relation of industrial water use and economic development: Water use Kuznets Curve. Journal of Natural Resources, 19(3): 279-284. (in Chinese)
14	Lin X Q, Wang D, Ren W Bet al., 2013. Research on the mechanism of urbanization to economic increase in China.Geographical Research, 32(4): 691-700. (in Chinese)
15	Liu J X, Wang Q, Sun Pet al., 2008. Decomposition effect on China’s annual ecological footprints variation from 1990 to 2004.Journal of Natural Resources, 23(1): 61-68. (in Chinese)
16	Liu Y B, Li R D, Song X F, 2005. Grey associative analysis of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling in China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 60(2): 237-247. (in Chinese)
17	Merrett S, 1997. Introduction to the Economics of Water Resources: An International Perspective. UCL Press.
18	Shen J F, 2006. Estimating urbanization levels in Chinese provinces in 1982-2000.International Statistical Review, 74(1): 89-107. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2006.tb00163.x
19	Song J J, Zhang Q J, Liu Y Q, 2004. Analysis and suggestions on water resources security in 2020 in China.China Water Resources, (9): 14-17. (in Chinese)
20	Sun C Z, Wang Y, 2010. Decomposition of driving effects for industrial water utilization change and spatial temporal difference in Liaoning Province.Geographical Research, 29(2): 244-252. (in Chinese)
21	Sun J W, 1998. Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity: A complete decomposition model.Energy Economics, 20(1): 85-100.
22	Zhang Q, Wang B D, Cao M L, 2011. Analysis of water resource utilization change based on factor decomposition model.Journal of Natural Resources, 26(7): 1209-1216. (in Chinese)
23	Zhou Y X, 1995. Urban Geography. Shanghai: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)
24	Zhou Y X, Yu H B, 2002. Suggestions on reconstructing the urbanization levels in China based on the fifth population census.Statistical Research, (4): 44-47. (in Chinese)

[1]	SUN Dongqi,ZHOU Liang,LI Yu,LIU Haimeng,SHEN Xiaoyan,WANG Zedong,WANG Xixi. New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(8): 943-966.
[2]	FENG Zhiming,LI Fangzhou,YANG Yanzhao,LI Peng. The past, present, and future of population geography in China:Progress, challenges and opportunities[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(8): 925-942.
[3]	HAN Longfei,LEI Chaogui,YANG Liu,DENG Xiaojun,HU Chunsheng,XU Guanglai. Degrading river network due to urbanization in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(6): 694-706.
[4]	LIU Shiwei,ZHANG Pingyu,WANG Zheye,LIU Wenxin,TAN Juntao. Measuring the sustainable urbanization potential of cities in Northeast China*[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(5): 549-567.
[5]	ZHAO Min,CHENG Weiming,LIU Qiangyi,WANG Nan. Spatiotemporal measurement of urbanization levels based on multiscale units: A case study of the Bohai Rim Region in China*[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(5): 531-548.
[6]	GEORG Isabel,BLASCHKE Thomas,TAUBENB?CK Hannes. New spatial dimensions of global cityscapes: From reviewing existing concepts to a conceptual spatial approach[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(3): 355-380.
[7]	LIU Yansui,YAN Bin,ZHOU Yang. Urbanization, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A panel cointegration and causality analysis*[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(2): 131-152.
[8]	Mingxing CHEN,Zhipeng TANG,Yongping BAI,Xiaoping ZHANG. Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development: Parameter re-evaluation of the Chenery model[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(8): 991-1002.
[9]	Xueqin LIN,Yang WANG,Shaojian WANG,Dai WANG. Spatial differences and driving forces of land urbanization in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 545-558.
[10]	Guosong ZHAO,Jiyuan LIU,Wenhui KUANG,Zhiyun OUYANG,Zhenglei XIE. Disturbance impacts of land use change on biodiversity conservation priority areas across China: 1990-2010[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 515-529.
[11]	Xingran LIU,Yanjun SHEN,Ying GUO,Shuo LI,Bin GUO. Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 573-591.
[12]	Tao LIU,Yuanjing QI,Guangzhong CAO,Hui LIU. Spatial patterns, driving forces, and urbanization effects of China’s internal migration: County-level analysis based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(2): 236-256.
[13]	DENG Yu,LIU Shenghe,CAI Jianming,LU Xi,Chris P NIELSEN. Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population: Methods and empirical study[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(12): 1507-1520.
[14]	Yansui LIU,Zhichao HU,Yuheng LI. Process and cause of urban-rural development transformation in the Bohai Rim Region, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 24(6): 1147-1160.
[15]	Yurui LI,Jing WANG,Yansui LIU,Hualou LONG. Problem regions and regional problems of socio- economic development in China: A perspective from the coordinated development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 24(6): 1115-1130.

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed