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Journal of Geographical Sciences    2015, Vol. 25 Issue (5) : 530-544     DOI: 10.1007/s11442-015-1185-8
Orginal Article |
The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997-2011
Chao BAO1,2,3(),Xiaojie CHEN1,2,3
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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Abstract  

As one of the key issues in China’s sustainable development, rapid urbanization and continuous economic growth are accompanied by a steady increase of water consumption and a severe urban water crisis. A better understanding of the relationship among urbanization, economic growth and water use change is necessary for Chinese decision makers at various levels to address the positive and negative effects of urbanization. Thus, we established a complete decomposition model to quantify the driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change for China and its 31 provincial administrative regions during the period of 1997-2011. The results show that, (1) China’s urbanization only contributed about 30% of the economic growth. Therefore, such idea as urbanization is the major driving force of economic growth may be weakened. (2) China’s urbanization increased 2352×108 m3 of water use by increasing the economic aggregate. However, it decreased 4530×108 m3 of water use by optimizing the industrial structure and improving the water use efficiency. Therefore, such idea as urbanization is the major driving force of water demand growth may be reacquainted. (3) Urbanization usually made greater contribution to economic and water use growth in the provincial administrative regions in east and central China, which had larger population and economic aggregate and stepped into the accelerating period of urbanization. However, it also made greater contribution to industrial structure optimization and water use efficiency improvement, and then largely decreased total water use. In total, urbanization had negative effects on water use growth in most provincial administrative regions in China, and the spatiotemporal differences among them were lessened on the whole. (4) Though urbanization helps to decrease water use for China and most provincial administrative regions, it may cause water crisis in urban built-up areas or urban agglomerations. Therefore, China should construct the water transfer and compensation mechanisms between urban and rural areas, or low and high density urban areas as soon as possible.

Keywords urbanization      economic growth      water demand      complete decomposition model      spatiotemporal difference      water resources compensation     
Fund:National Social Science Foundation of China, No.13&ZD027;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41101538
Issue Date: 24 June 2015
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Chao BAO
Xiaojie CHEN
Cite this article:   
Chao BAO,Xiaojie CHEN. The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997-2011[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 530-544.
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http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-015-1185-8     OR     http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2015/V25/I5/530
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1997-2011
ΔE 586 614 732 781 925 1114 1233 1523 1900 2391 1857 1947 2411 2369 20385
Peff 68 90 137 75 65 68 98 92 126 120 128 134 141 149 1491
Ieff 421 434 400 576 692 855 912 1170 1398 1963 1389 1448 1876 1797 15330
Seff 97 91 195 131 169 191 223 261 376 308 340 365 394 424 3564
SIeff 79 75 131 107 136 156 179 213 296 266 273 291 325 343 2872
Ueff 176 166 326 238 305 348 402 474 672 574 613 656 719 768 6436
ΔI 421 422 473 555 672 812 875 1095 1347 1713 1296 1350 1680 1635 14346
IIeff 342 349 318 452 540 663 703 896 1062 1481 1041 1078 1389 1322 11637
ISeff 79 73 155 103 132 148 172 200 285 232 255 272 291 312 2709
Table 1  Driving effects of China’s population urbanization on economic growth from 1997 to 2011
Figure 1  Driving effects of population urbanization on economic growth by province in China
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1997-2011
China 30.0 27.0 44.6 30.4 33.0 31.2 32.6 31.1 35.4 24.0 33.0 33.7 29.8 32.4 31.6
Beijing 2.9 13.8 -19.7 -14.3 9.6 10.0 7.9 12.1 18.8 6.4 9.6 8.3 8.0 9.6 7.5
Tianjin 4.7 9.5 4.1 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.7 -0.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3
Hebei 28.1 24.8 48.1 32.7 43.5 42.9 40.7 37.6 17.2 32.7 39.6 39.6 33.3 35.3 35.1
Shanxi 21.3 31.9 51.3 21.8 29.0 24.1 26.6 30.1 24.0 19.7 33.6 47.8 21.4 22.4 26.1
Inner
Mongolia
29.3 17.5 32.0 22.4 12.0 12.1 10.7 9.9 10.0 11.9 12.8 13.5 15.1 15.6 13.7
Liaoning 10.5 -6.8 2.4 3.7 13.0 11.7 14.4 16.0 14.0 8.2 9.1 9.2 8.6 9.7 9.8
Jilin 1.9 -13.6 -10.5 -4.3 18.6 13.4 14.7 15.5 12.4 6.3 6.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8
Heilongjiang 3.0 12.9 24.2 8.1 18.7 14.6 14.3 13.5 10.5 10.3 10.5 10.7 9.7 9.9 11.5
Shanghai 6.6 -21.3 4.1 29.1 7.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 26.8 4.7 6.2 6.4 4.6 5.0 6.3
Jiangsu 34.2 62.4 73.3 67.7 26.2 28.5 25.2 27.2 19.8 33.4 36.7 36.0 33.8 36.4 34.8
Zhejiang 47.7 48.0 53.7 19.1 24.4 23.5 21.6 29.7 15.0 21.6 29.1 31.4 23.7 29.2 27.0
Anhui 29.3 35.1 37.9 12.4 59.7 54.8 52.3 14.5 36.5 28.8 31.7 31.1 27.9 29.8 32.6
Fujian 33.7 36.7 29.1 27.3 24.8 24.4 22.9 25.5 45.1 24.1 27.0 27.7 24.4 26.4 27.9
Jiangxi 17.4 14.8 53.3 44.0 36.1 36.0 33.5 36.4 4.9 5.8 5.9 3.3 19.6 21.8 19.4
Shandong 9.5 22.2 18.0 16.8 19.2 24.3 28.9 30.6 27.3 25.8 29.3 28.4 27.6 30.0 26.5
Henan 27.0 12.6 22.5 19.7 35.5 32.6 27.9 27.1 30.2 25.2 29.7 32.5 28.9 30.2 28.5
Hubei 30.7 28.6 28.0 38.7 35.2 44.4 35.0 33.8 28.3 26.2 27.6 26.8 24.2 25.1 28.7
Hunan 36.5 33.3 38.2 20.2 55.6 44.9 46.8 44.7 7.1 27.4 29.3 29.6 28.0 31.2 31.4
Guangdong 29.6 26.1 11.9 10.4 19.2 15.1 16.5 16.6 19.9 23.2 29.4 28.9 21.6 24.1 21.6
Guangxi 30.7 26.8 19.5 38.3 28.6 27.0 20.9 43.7 42.9 46.7 36.5 34.0 31.3 35.0 35.0
Hainan 44.0 23.1 23.7 27.0 15.8 13.1 10.0 8.3 45.4 13.6 19.4 16.4 12.5 16.2 18.5
Chongqing 32.5 26.4 67.6 53.2 32.8 31.4 31.1 28.8 56.4 30.0 31.8 30.5 26.7 27.2 32.7
Sichuan 19.7 32.6 35.1 25.9 35.8 39.6 34.6 42.8 35.5 27.9 35.3 28.0 27.0 27.1 31.1
Guizhou 2.7 5.0 14.4 14.5 19.4 25.2 19.2 24.2 -2.5 12.1 15.7 15.7 14.3 12.6 13.8
Yunnan 37.6 49.9 67.8 37.3 38.9 35.3 40.4 38.1 25.4 29.7 33.4 29.8 29.5 27.0 33.2
Tibet 61.2 66.9 68.1 73.5 54.2 48.2 38.3 32.5 29.3 28.0 22.0 45.0 45.3 44.0 42.5
Shaanxi 39.1 29.5 55.4 30.6 33.6 34.3 20.7 25.9 10.9 20.2 19.6 23.0 21.6 22.4 23.6
Gansu 19.8 17.2 38.3 26.9 28.2 46.3 27.0 27.2 37.3 19.5 27.6 27.1 24.1 22.9 27.2
Qinghai 19.0 -9.6 -17.9 55.7 21.7 17.9 13.6 22.7 36.9 17.8 17.8 23.0 15.8 17.7 19.7
Ningxia 18.4 8.5 -13.9 2.1 35.1 32.3 33.7 32.8 14.7 18.5 18.6 19.5 17.4 19.1 19.5
Xinjiang -9.9 6.0 -12.3 -9.8 19.6 19.4 25.5 19.1 19.2 18.7 20.6 26.8 21.2 19.0 17.2
Table 2  Comprehensive contribution rates of population urbanization to economic growth by province in China from 1997 to 2011 (%)
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1997-2011
ΔW -131 155 -93 70 -70 -256 225 75 162 11 77 72 40 93 429
EPeff 415 405 449 441 482 514 515 590 672 758 530 514 585 529 7399
EIeff -391 -77 -325 -174 -330 -514 -166 -312 -251 -392 -306 -263 -326 -255 -4081
ESeff -155 -173 -217 -198 -221 -256 -124 -204 -260 -355 -147 -179 -219 -181 -2888
ESIeff -111 -53 -130 -93 -133 -171 -71 -123 -127 -186 -99 -106 -131 -106 -1641
EUeff -266 -226 -348 -290 -354 -427 -195 -327 -387 -541 -246 -285 -350 -287 -4530
QEPeff 125 109 200 134 159 160 168 184 238 182 175 173 175 171 2352
ΔWU -141 -117 -147 -156 -195 -267 -27 -143 -150 -359 -72 -112 -176 -115 -2177
ΔEI -70.3 -29.8 -60.0 -37.9 -51.8 -66.0 -22.6 -36.3 -32.0 -41.3 -22.4 -20.0 -22.5 -16.4 -529.2
EIIeff -50.3 -9.2 -36.0 -17.7 -31.0 -44.1 -12.9 -21.9 -15.7 -21.7 -15.1 -11.9 -13.4 -9.6 -310.6
EISeff -20.0 -20.6 -24.0 -20.2 -20.8 -22.0 -9.7 -14.3 -16.3 -19.6 -7.3 -8.1 -9.0 -6.8 -218.7
Table 3  Driving effects of population-economic urbanization on water use change in China from 1997 to 2011
Figure 2  Driving effects of population-economic urbanization on water use change by province in China
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1997-2011
China -141 -117 -147 -156 -195 -267 -27 -143 -150 -359 -72 -112 -176 -115 -2177
Beijing -2.2 -1.6 -3.5 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 -2.8 -2.2 -1.9 -2.3 -1.5 -1.0 -2.2 -1.1 -29.9
Tianjin -0.5 -2.8 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.7 -2.2 -2.6 -2.0 -25.5
Hebei -5.3 -8.2 -3.0 -3.3 -2.4 -4.5 -4.9 -5.4 -13.0 -11.4 -5.2 -6.8 -10.3 -7.3 -91.0
Shanxi 2.1 3.3 8.7 -2.1 3.2 -2.2 -2.9 -5.0 -1.5 -5.9 -1.9 0.6 1.6 -8.1 -10.0
Inner
Mongolia
2.7 6.3 -5.0 -8.7 -12.6 -20.9 -12.5 -24.1 -20.3 -22.1 -16.5 -18.0 -13.6 -11.8 -177.3
Liaoning 9.9 -5.3 -13.7 -3.1 -1.0 -4.1 -4.3 -3.9 -6.1 -12.3 -8.3 -11.4 -9.7 -6.6 -79.9
Jilin 6.7 -7.4 29.7 -6.7 -1.2 -3.9 -2.8 -0.6 -6.8 -12.4 -5.4 -5.4 -5.9 -6.6 -28.5
Heilongjiang 4.7 -12.4 -21.2 -2.0 -1.9 -16.8 5.6 -4.4 -6.4 -18.5 -8.8 -11.4 -17.2 -11.5 -122.3
Shanghai -2.2 -5.1 -1.6 1.3 -0.9 -2.2 -4.4 -5.9 0.0 -3.1 -1.9 -1.8 -4.3 -2.2 -34.2
Jiangsu -24.8 7.6 8.3 9.1 -17.5 -39.0 -37.3 -26.3 -21.6 -20.4 -12.1 -12.4 -13.6 -11.4 -211.2
Zhejiang -3.8 -2.9 -1.3 -6.3 -8.0 -13.2 -11.3 -9.9 -12.7 -12.2 -4.7 -5.7 -7.7 -3.8 -103.7
Anhui -8.1 4.8 -8.9 -51.0 2.1 -9.8 3.4 -12.3 -9.2 -11.2 -18.7 2.9 -13.0 -12.3 -141.3
Fujian -11.5 -1.0 -7.0 -5.0 -6.0 -8.2 -6.6 -6.0 -5.6 -8.0 -5.8 -5.0 -9.1 -5.0 -89.9
Jiangxi -20.2 -0.4 5.8 -3.0 -6.2 -11.4 -5.8 -2.8 -1-.6 -112.2 -16.5 -17.1 -15.8 16.2 -199.9
Shandong -11.6 -9.6 -14.8 -9.9 -17.3 -16.2 -11.1 -14.1 -7.0 -17.4 -9.4 -11.3 -12.0 -9.3 -171.0
Henan 0.0 -0.1 -8.1 -9.4 -5.7 -21.4 5.1 -5.4 -66.2 -14.8 -1.3 -4.8 -9.5 -8.1 -149.6
Hubei -16.3 -17.0 -7.4 -4.5 -10.4 2.2 -0.7 -4.3 -7.1 -10.3 -4.7 -7.2 -11.1 -9.2 -107.9
Hunan -14.6 -6.6 -6.9 -11.1 -9.1 -4.1 2.3 -2.5 -20.7 -18.7 -12.6 -12.8 -15.5 -11.4 -144.3
Guangdong -11.4 -10.1 -29.7 -18.2 -18.3 -32.3 -25.4 -24.2 -24.5 -25.0 -11.2 -6.1 -16.5 -11.3 -264.0
Guangxi -3.8 3.1 1.5 -6.9 -2.6 -14.0 -9.8 1.7 -6.0 -9.6 -9.6 -12.6 -14.6 -9.6 -92.8
Hainan 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.6 -2.9 -0.5 -1.6 -3.6 -2.0 -5.6
Chongqing -0.3 -0.8 1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 -0.4 4.6
Sichuan -6.0 -0.8 -4.2 -8.1 -3.4 -2.5 -3.6 -2.1 -8.4 -10.9 -6.7 -4.9 -10.0 -11.0 -82.7
Guizhou -3.4 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -2.9 -1.6 -2.6 -2.5 -6.1 -6.8 -1.8 -3.9 -4.4 -9.1 -54.0
Yunnan 5.5 0.4 4.0 -1.5 -2.5 -1.6 -3.2 -0.3 -4.2 -4.7 -0.3 -5.7 -7.6 -5.8 -27.6
Tibet -0.9 -0.4 1.3 -0.4 2.5 -2.1 -8.3 -3.9 -1.1 -1.7 -1.2 -2.8 -15.1 -2.5 -36.5
Shaanxi 1.5 -3.4 -0.3 -3.3 -2.2 -2.3 -0.7 -1.9 -3.4 -6.6 -4.3 -5.1 -5.2 -3.7 -40.8
Gansu -3.3 -7.5 -4.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.6 -1.1 -3.0 -11.7 -7.4 -1.4 -4.5 -5.3 -5.7 -57.2
Qinghai -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -2.2 -0.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -19.2
Ningxia 3.7 -4.8 -15.4 -4.7 -2.2 -8.1 -12.2 -1.1 -5.3 -5.1 -3.0 -3.3 -4.1 -4.2 -69.9
Xinjiang -3.7 -56.9 -29.0 -32.7 -15.9 -9.5 -24.7 -19.8 -24.2 -23.4 -20.0 -14.2 -31.0 -26.4 -331.4
Table 4  Comprehensive contributions of population-economic urbanization on water use change by province in China from 1997 to 2011 (108 m3)
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