The change in population density from 2000 to 2010 and its influencing factors in China at the county scale

doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1181-z

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying the change in population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. The spatial patterns and driving factors of the change in population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study firstly analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the change in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square (PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant factors (among 11 natural and social-economic factors) impacting population density change for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that: (1) compared to the population density in 2000, in 2010, the population density in most of the counties (over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km² on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km². Of all the 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively showed rapid and slow increase in population density, while 458 and 446 counties showed slow and rapid decrease in population density, respectively. (2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors impacted population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were the main pull factors of population increase. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decrease. These conclusions clarified the spatial pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide helpful reference for the future population planning.

Key words: spatial distribution of population, population density, influencing factors, PLS method

Lu WANG, Zhiming FENG, Yanzhao YANG. The change in population density from 2000 to 2010 and its influencing factors in China at the county scale[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(4): 485-496.

Figures/Tables 6

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Types for change in population density	Abbreviation	Classification rule
Rapid increase	RI	F_j>1
Slow increase	SI	0≤F_j≤1
Slow decrease	SD	-1≤F_j<0
Rapid increase	RD	F_j<-1

Category			Unit	Description	Data source
Natural factors	1	RDLS	—	Mean RDLS for each county	CGIAR-CSI
	2	Total water resources per km²	10⁴ m³/km²	Total volume of surface water and groundwater divided by the area of each county	Statistical yearbook
	3	grain output per km²	t/km²	The total grain output for each country in 2000 divided by the area of each county	Statistical yearbook
	4	NDVI	—	NDVI in 2000 at each county	GIMMS
	5	Average annual temperature	°C	Mean annual average temperature (1970~2000) at each county	RESDC
	6	Average annual precipitation	mm	Mean annual average precipitation (1970~2000) at each county	RESDC
Social- economic factors	7	Initial population density	Persons/km²	Population density in 2000 at each county	Statistical yearbook
	8	Gross domestic product (GDP) density	10⁴ yuan/km²	GDP divided by the area of each county in 2000	Statistical yearbook
	9	Length of transport routes per km²	km/km²	Total length of railways in operation, highways and inland waterways in 2000 divided by the area of each county	Statistical yearbook
	10	Telephones density	telephones/km²	The number of telephones in 2000 divided by the area of each county	Statistical yearbook
	11	Hospital beds density	beds/km²	The number of beds in medical and health care institutions in 2000	Statistical yearbook

Types of Change in population density	Population density (persons/km²)	GDP (10⁸ yuan)	Telephones number (10⁴)	Hospital beds Number (10⁴)
Rapid decrease	562.43	23.86	5195.63	941.83
Slow decrease	468.48	27.52	5921.12	1054.13
Slow increase	541.94	30.42	6731.72	1062.21
Rapid increase	608.54	62.35	11357.14	1801.03

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